NFL High School Food Chain: Ducky Division

Last year, my posts tapered off somewhere around #8 in my power rankings (at that late date in August it was the Brett Favres). In stead of doing 500 words on each team, many of which were very very wrong (apologies to the Bucs and Chiefs), this year the theme is NFL high school, where I go clique by clique, from the freaks to the geeks all the way to the Heathers (hint: Romeo Crennel is the only Heather). You might remember those old Nike commercials where Michael Vick and Brian Urlacher all go to the same school and help a young receiver reach greatness or some such on Friday night. You might not know what I'm talking about. Anyway, here's this year's Ducky Division - I've never seen Sixteen Candles, but I'm assuming this guy was there for comic relief and didn't end up getting Molly Ringwald. We could also call it the Landry Division, because if an interesting storyline does emerge from this group, it will certainly involve a crime of passion and a some bad indie rock.

32. Washington Redskins
Short-term and long-term success in the NFL is based on quarterback play. Mike Shanahan is currently choosing between Rex Grossman, the biggest punchline in the last decade of signal callers, and John Beck, a man who once threw 100 passes for a 1-15 Dolphins team, while getting sacked ten times (note: that completes his resume). Also, he's the same age as Philip Rivers and Eli Manning. Literally no other team in the league would have these men as third stringers. Combine this with a loss of depth along both the offensive and defensive lines, and the standard desperation move of bringing in Donte Stallworth on a one year deal, they look to be the worst team in the league. Playing in the tough as nails NFC East, their record should follow suit.

31. Buffalo Bills
Like their counterparts at #32, the Bills play a tough schedule every year. Buffalo fans have been beaten down so repeatedly over the years they are convinced they have found their savior in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who managed to win 4 games against teams with losing records last season. They also have the curse of playing in one of the most depressing parts of America; every year they fail to draw big name free agents, while losing some of their best players. This year, each level of the defense was weakened as DT Marcus Stroud bolted for New England, and former first rounders Paul Posluzny (MLB) and Donte Whitner (SS) thought they would rather play in Jacksonville and Cincinnati of all players, rather than another campaign in Orchard Park. Until they find the next Jim Kelly, seeing the Bills on your team's upcoming schedule will always feel like a bye week, no matter how entertainingly they lose.

30. Oakland Raiders
Hooray, nightmares! Look, I love the Oakland Raiders, but they lost their two best players in free agency in Asomugha and tight end Zach Miller. They also lost key pieces on their offensive line like Robert Gallery and Langston Walker. Firing Tom Cable sure looks like a mistake now, as he has migrated their power rushing philosophy and personnel to Seattle. Right now, the bad boys of the East Bay have few above average defensive players, a bunch of undersized receivers, and one Jason Campbell under center. We should call this the megalomaniacal owner model of team identity.

29. Denver Broncos
Orton-Tebow drama aside, there are two types of players on the Denver Broncos: old and bad. They continued that trend by bringing in Willis McGahee and Ty Warren. Whatever John Fox and John Elway are planning, you can bet they don't intend to see the end result on the field this year. In the process of affecting a massive scheme change, they drafted a player with the second overall pick that doesn't have an obvious position in the base defense. If Orton and Brandon Lloyd can come back and reproduce what they did in Josh McDaniel's high flying offensive system, the Wild Horses have a shot at 7-9. Yet even that seems unrealistic.

Carousel in the Sky Keeps on Turning

Optimists called this year's draft class The Year of the Quarterback (a intellectual property lawsuit filed by 1983 is still mired in the appeals process). Realists might dub it the Year of the Lockout. Either way, trades were an impossibility during draft time, so more teams than ever inch towards a theoretical opening day without a clear starter. Six teams (Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Cincinnati and San Francisco) took QBs in the top 40 picks - Assuming Carson Palmer is serious about never playing for the Bengals again, 5 of those have no veteran to give the rookies a chance to learn in what may be a severely abridged preseason. Teams like Buffalo, Arizona and Miami seem to want to develop what they have in house, but that isn't much. To top it all off, for a variety of reasons, from suicidal tendencies to cardiovascular endurance to the return of Michael Vick, there are more viable QBs on the market for those teams wanting. When the season and free agency do get underway (which they) will, here are the top some possible franchise-savers:

1. Vince Young (free agent)
Some time last season, it became obvious that Titans owner Bud Adams was going to have to pick between Young and 16-year head coach Jeff Fisher. He's apparently picked neither, cutting them both loose. Of the QBs available, VY the youngest, and has enjoyed the most recent success (a 26-13 record as a starter, including recording a 98 passer rating last year before being benched by Fisher).

Drawbacks: Young isn't an accurate, high-volume passer - he needs a solid O-line and a running game to support him. He's had off-the-field issues, both personal and criminal. These may have stemmed from his tumultuous relationship with his head coach. Young will require a strong support system and the unwavering support of coaches and fans to rebuild his confidence.

Where He Fits: While putting him on South Beach with Brandon Marshall might not sound like the best idea, The Dolphins offer Young the ideal team identity for his skill sets; a variety of receivers, an underrated tight end in Anthony Fasano, and plenty of protection up front. While the current buzz points towards Washington, that doesn't seem like a fit schematically, and the Skins may be too far away to commit more a large sum of money to another injury concern at QB.

2. Kyle Orton (Broncos 2nd string)
The longer the lockout lasts, the more likely it becomes Orton remains in Denver. If he doesn't, however, he may write a third successful act in his brief career. In Josh McDaniels' pass-happy, no-running back offense, Orton put up Pro Bowl-fringe numbers before succumbing to injury. When healthy, he's an accurate, efficient passer - think of him as Chad Pennington with a more reliable deep ball.

Drawbacks: You could also think of him as Matt Schaub with a less reliable deep ball - Orton has never really shown up in a big game. His Bears and Broncos teams both narrowly missed the playoffs in 2008 and 2009. Also, the injuries.

Where he fits: It would require a reconfiguration of their offense, but Orton could restore some of the finesse to the Arizona passing attack, which seemed to be operating under the influence of alcohol during the 46.7% Completion Percentage Era of John Skelton. Minnesota also offers a variety of weapons, and Orton bears enough similarities to #12 overall pick Christian Ponder to have some educational value. Basically, this guy needs good players around him, and then he can lead you to 9 wins, if healthy.

3. Carson Palmer (retirement purgatory)
We've all had the flashes - this guy just looks like a quarterback. He had the elite year. He had THE injury. He recovered and threw a lot of touchdowns and a lot of picks. He had another injury. He started slow some years. He got the Bengals to the playoffs twice. Nobody respects him. I look at Palmer and I see Vinny Testaverde - a guy hampered by injuries, bad management and an even worse team about to enter the second phase of his career. Vinny didn't throw more TDs than interceptions in a full season until he was 32. Palmer is a year younger, is clearly a leader, and just needs a release.

Drawbacks: Injuries and turnovers. He's had a lot of both.

Where He Fits: Palmer is the one guy on this list who doesn't have any true physical limitations in his game. He can throw in any weather, and has made due with subpar receivers (check out this doozy from last year). Which leads me to this crazy idea - Buffalo. Sure, he would come in as the back-up to his former back-up, Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Palmer seems more than ready to swallow some pride. The Bengals will likely want him out of the conference, however, so I see him as the next likely victim of the Dan Snyder Career Ravaging Machine.

4. Donovan McNabb (free agent)
Here's the capstone backhanded compliment McNabb: he's the greatest quarterback in the history of one of the NFL's 32 franchises, and not close to the worst one. We know he's not John Elway or Tom Brady, but can he be Phil Simms or Dan Fouts? Last year was McNabb's first fully healthy, fully awful year in the league. Was this just an early-30s hiccup like the one experienced by Brett Favre? Were the Redskins simply a terrible team AND a terrible fit? You can bet exactly one team will push their chips to the middle on the assumption McNabb has one more Randall Cunningham-style redemption left in his tank. He's lead young teams, he's lead high-powered offenses, and Lord knows he has something to prove.

Drawbacks: Cardiovascular endurance.

Where He Fits: San Francisco tried to make a go of it with Troy Smith, a terrible McNabb clone, so why not take a shot with the real thing? Minnesota seems to be a team about plummett off an age-induced cliff, so letting Christian Ponder wait a year while this last generation of Vikings makes a run at the title might make some sense.

Moss or Owens: The Freakish Headcase Debate

Jerry Rice just entered the Hall of Fame. By the virtue of the fact that wide receiver is one of the flashiest and least physically punishing positions in football, his jaw-dropping stats garnered him the #1 position on the NFL Network's recent countdown of the top 100. There were only five other receivers on the list, and the only one of the current era was Randy Moss. Since Moss has been in the news (just a little bit) and T.O. just had one of the best performances of his 15 year career last night, I thought I would break down to the two signature wideouts of the generation. Is Moss really as good as people say? Does T.O. get nearly enough credit? Can Randy Moss be considered the second best wide receiver post-merger given his shenanigans? A run down of two original American personages:

1) Raw Stats

Randy Moss: 10 thousand yard seasons, 9 double digit TD seasons, 948 rec, 14778 yards (15.6 yards per reception), 153 TDs, 4 All-Pro Teams

Terrell Owens: 10 thousand yard seasons, 9 double digit TD seasons (Assuming he doesnt get injured this year), 1061 rec, 15721 yards (14.8 ypr), 151 total TDs 5 All-Pro Teams

TO has rushed for 257 yards and 3 TDS (including one last year at age 36), Randy 159 and 0 scores.

2) Who They Fought With

Okay, so let the Kobe/Jordan argument begin by dissecting the teams these two men played for. Who threw them each the most TDs? 

Randy Moss TDs

Daunte Culpepper (53)

Tom Brady (39)

Randall Cunningham (18)

Matt Cassell (11)

Terrell Owens TDs

Jeff Garcia (50)

Tony Romo (34)

Steve Young (24)

Donovan McNabb (20)

I'm not sure if this breakdown really settles anything. In my opinion, Daunte Culpepper was better in the years Randy played with him than Jeff Garcia ever dreamed of being (should also be noted T.O. played in about a season and half less games with Jeff than Randy did with Daunte).

The real point of demarcation comes in the next levels. To me, Randall Cunningham and Donovan are about a wash. Miles Austin aside, Tony Romo is no Tom Brady. I think the world had forgotten about Randy Moss to some extent by 2007, and Bill Belichick woke us all back up. The unique screw-the-world nature of that Patriots season makes it an obvious outlier in Moss' career. Not saying it wasn't amazing, I'm just saying put TO on that team and tell me he doesn't do something similar. They ran up the score - they did this with Moss deep - no two ways about it. 2007 was more of a Harlem Globetrotters like exhibition. It is certainly worth noting that Moss' record setting 1998 and 2007 teams both sacrificed offensive balance on the altar of Moss' freakish ability, and both lost memorably in the playoffs. Direct correlation? Probably not. 

3) Spin

Let's now look at each player's most dominant 3 consecutive season period - the results will surprise you. For Moss, it's actually his first three years in the league - 226 receptions, 4163 yards, 43 TDs. For Owens, its his first three years with Jeff Garcia, when he caught 290 balls (at least 90 each year), for the exact same 4163 yards and one less TD, 42. These stats confirm something I've always thought about Owens - he's a more valuable possession receiver than almost any other player of his generation. That hit he absorbed from Polamalu on that last drive last night? not his first. 

Both played next to a legend early in their careers, Moss with Chris Carter and T.O. with Rice. The difference is Moss was a first round pick, and thrown into the offense right away. When he was at his youngest, and fastest, he was ripping through defenses and catching long balls from the big arms of randall cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper. T.O. was not featured in the offense until his third season. Moss' dominance was from age 21-23, when he had a clear physical advantage over unsupecting corners. Owens didn't start his greatest rampage til he was 27. And i can't say this enough, that wasn't with Steve Young, that was with JEFF GARCIA. (49ers made the playoffs in two of those three years)

I think the argument begins to shift Owens way when we look at the NEXT best 3-year period for each player. For Moss, its his subsequent 3 years in Minnesota, when he caught 299 balls for 4212 yards and 34 TDs. Carter was gone, Daunte continued on (to two pro bowls), and Randy enjoyed some seriously scary numbers (followed by the 2004 season in which despite playing 16 games and catching 13 TDs, Moss walked off the field with 767 receiving yards amidst questions of effort - 2004 was also the only post Carter year the Moss Vikings made the playoffs, led by Nate Burleson). This was a continuation of his first hot streak - from 1998-2003, Randy Moss was the best receiver in the NFL 

T.O. on the other hand, due to injury and the Philly situation, wouldn't start going off in consecutive seasons again until he was 33, when he posted a 3-year run of 235 catches, 3547 yards an 38 TDs. He did this with the remains of Drew Bledsoe and a certain undrafted Northern Illinois QB whose collar bone shall not be named. He helped the 2006 Cowboys rally to the playoffs and the 2007 Boys were the best offense to ever play in the stadium with the hole in the roof so God can watch. In 2008, complaining of not enough balls his way, the Boys collapsed, losing a game in Pittsburgh they were winning (and in which TO had already scored) when Romo forced a throw to Jason Witten - it was returned for a TD. Owens was cut after this season.

4) Intangibles

Terrell Owens has been shipped out via trade or cut from 3 cities - San Francisco, Philly and Dallas. 

Randy Moss has been shipped out via trade or cut from 3 cities a total of 4 times - Minnesota, Oakland, New England and Minnesota again. I don't really blame the third dismissal of either receiver on them. Call this a wash.

I think the major case, the one hall of fame voters and football blowhards care about is the answer to this question: did they make the team better, so much better they were invaluable? They've both been to the playoffs 6 times, for a total of 12 games. but back to the guys they fought with category - Moss made it to the playoffs just once without Carter, again, the year Burleson led the Vikings in yards. His other two times? Tom Brady was at the helm. Owens only made the playoffs once with Rice and Steve Young, all the rest he was the best offensive player on the team. San Fran hasn't seen the playoffs since, and philly missed 2 of the next three years. The WAR/VORP advantage clearly goes to T.O.

   

They've each played in one Super Bowl. Moss caught 5 for 62 and a TD and lost the second biggest upset in Super Bowl history. Owens played with a fractured fibula (AKA broken leg) and caught 9 for 122 as a dynasty was confirmed. I'm willing to call this a wash, but you know how i really feel.

Lastly, effort. Last year, T.O. Had about 900 all purpose yards and 5 TDs on a horrendous Buffalo team - he average 52 yards a game, by far the worst mark of his career since he became a starter (this year he's back up to 96.3 on the 2-6 Bengals). Since the beginning of the season Randy Moss stopped trying in Minnesota (2004), he has played in 99 games, 32 with a fully functional Tom Brady. In the games with Brady, he's averaged 86 yards a game; in the games without, 54. That's a 40% dropoff, and that's including the 11-5 Matt Cassell year, plus the first 7 games of this year with good QBs (and obviously the Oakland debacle). Bottom line: Moss does not try when he does not think he can win or he does not feel he's getting paid what he deserves and the stats back it up. Even in 2005 when T.O. acted like an ass, held out, did pushups in his driveway and then tore his ACL, he averaged 109 yards a game in 7 games and scored 6 TDs.  We know for a fact T.O. will be in uniform next year - will his co-member of the 150 TD club?

#8: Nice Guys Finished

Last year, the Minnesota Vikings were not only the most talented team in football, they were also the best on the field. Change two plays or less in the championship game, and the Violet Favres would have been in the Super Bowl, with a formidable defense and an arsenal of offensive weapons. But that third down happened, and Brad Childress made the poor substitution, Favre made the stupid throw, and the old overtime rules ushered God's chosen Saints to Miami, and eventually to victory. Now that season 3 of Favre watch is over, we can assess the team Minnesota will put on the field this year.

The Vikings are a top three team talent-wise. Jared Allen. Adrian Peterson. Steve Hutchinson. Every unit has a pro-bowler. The weakest part of the team happens to be the most important - the man in charge. Chilly learned game management and play-calling from Andy Reid, the single-most frustrating head coach in NFL history. Favre's poor decision making will always be a fact of life - Childress' need not be.

If Zygi Wilf had any sense he would have swapped coaches after the hugely successful 2009 campaign. The fans were on his side; Chilly's popularity was at an all-time low. Look at what hard-scrabble football men like Mike Smith and Bill Parcells were able to do with bottom-feeder teams in Atlanta and Miami. If Wilf had hired Shanahan off the street January 20th, this team would be #1. But Childress is still at the helm, only without the crucial element of control. Replacing him would be a New York move, reactionary and impolite. That's not how this franchise works. That's not how Minnesota works. Maybe that's why they never win.

X's and O's wise, the defense is aging. Not declining, but perhaps entering a phase like the mid-decade Patriots, where once elite players are relying more on their savvy than natural ability. The Vikings are a well-coached unit (it's a crime Leslie Frazier has not been offered a head coaching position), and they'll continue to be able to dominate average and poor teams.

Enough beating around the bush. What stands between the Vikings and ultimate glory is themselves. Favre and Peterson both have chronic turnover problems. Again, a more forceful organization might bench Peterson to break him of his habits, or tell Favre to get his ass in camp. But Wilf needs to sell tickets and play nice to get his new stadium. Until he becomes ruthless and relentless in his pursuit of a title, and speaks truth to his all-too-pampered stars, the Vikings will always be a smart play short of a championship. With the Packers on the rise and the Lions becoming competent, the Norsemen tumble from the ranks of the elite. 10-6.

#9: Tunatown

When Bill Parcells took over the Miami Dolphins, with former Cowboys offensive line coach Tony Sparano as a figurehead, most of us assumed we had not heard the last from the Fins.  What we did not count on was the wildcat, the re(re-re?)birth of Chad Pennington and an 11-win season that claimed the AFC East. The new regime's first draft set the table for two things Parcells covets - a strong left tackle, a well-groomed QB with plenty of college experience. The 2008 season was just a bonus. After a disappointing 2009 in which the young team was ambushed by a difficult schedule and a shaky start due to Pennington's third season-ending shoulder injury, Miami is reloaded, and a legitimate top 5 team in the AFC.

Whether they parley that status into a Super Bowl run is at least somewhat dependent on that man on the bicycle, Brandon Marshall. Another variable in the traditional Parcells formula (at least since he enjoyed actual success with the Giants) is a massive wideout who demands double coverage, scores in bunches, and is generally a pain in the ass. Keyshawn Johnson. Terrell Owens. Bill likes challenges. And, you know, hats. If Marshall can bring his 4th consecutive 100-catch season, then the Dolphins will be fearsome.

Big name receivers, however, generally fail to perform up to expectations the first year after a trade. The odds seem against Marshall being as big a factor as he was in Denver. With a defense featuring Karlos Dansby and a two-headed running back, the most talked about acquisition in South Florida will be the cherry on top of an already solid sundae. The more important factors will be the continuing maturation of Chad Henne (entering year three) and the health of the powerful offensive line. Any team with these ingredients will compete, and for the long term. Miami may have been unlucky last year, but 2010 should translate to 10 wins.

What's the catch then? Too many teams with great running games fail to realize that younger backs make for more explosive plays. By sticking with Ronnie Brown (injuries) and Ricky Williams (ancient mariner syndrome), the Dolphins may be leaving themselves open to a tailspin. If one or both is unable to perform, this team will have to sling it, and after trading Greg Camarillo to the Vikings today, they're short on offensive firepower, with the exception of the volatile Marshall. Which would pretty much make them the Broncos (pick a year, any year). If the wildcat keeps working, on the other hand, this could easily be the team to beat.

#10: The Defense Rests

There may have never been a team as blessed as last year's New Orleans Saints. From Robert Meachem snatching an interception out of a defensive back's hands and taking it in for the score to the phantom pass interference call that put them in field goal position against the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, everything fell just right for New Orleans. In 2008 they were a last-place 8-8 team, garnering an easy schedule. In 2009, they dominated a division that featured Jake Delhomme's Panthers, the banged-up Falcons and the imploded Buccaneers. They played the Eagles minus McNabb. They scored 21 points on defense in Miami. Any way you put it, it was their year.

All we have to do is look at the recent New Dynasties on the Block to predict what is likely to happen in the Big Easy this year. After winning it all, the 2002 Patriots and 2006 Steelers stumbled badly, missing the playoffs and hovering around the .500 mark all year. With an opening trio of games against the 49ers, Vikins and Falcons (the latter two of which these rankings have yet to discuss), the Saints may realize very quickly that this is a new year that presents new challenges. When you win it all, the team seems flawless. A 1-2 start, and some very obvious problems will dominate the headlines.

Sean Payton is an offensive genius; more than one broadcaster will tell you this over the course of a season. We all remember that artistic double reverse to Reggie Bush that sent him flying 6 yards to the pylon. Now, let's go back to this 27-23 loss to the Bucs in 2007. The Saints led late, but Payton got nifty, calling the same double reverse that worked in the championship year. This time, Devery Henderson fumbled and the Saints lost the game. So, did Payton work out the kinks, or did the gamble just pay off? The Saints are run precision offense based on an undersized QB making accurate, split-second throws on crossing routes. A gust of wind in an outdoor game late in the year could derail them.

The part of the Saints' run most difficult to replicate will be the crazy-bananas play of Darren Sharper. His nose for the football and a few lucky bounces resulted in 376 return yards and 3 touchdowns. However, regression to the mean is a fact of football life. Just ask Ed Reed: in 2008, the Ravens' safety accounted for 11 turnovers and three scores; the next year, his interceptions were down to three, and he only found the end one once. Baltimore also won two fewer games. Defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams would be the first to tell you the Saints D thrives on the big play. In 2010, it may just happen less frequently. The rest of the defense (none of whom made the pro bowl) remains a mediocre crew of role players.

That is to say nothing of the impeccable play of the no-name offensive line, or the relative health of mercurial running back Reggie Bush. The Saints were lucky AND good last year; this year they may just be good. More importantly, their division will be better. Carolina's Smash and Dash will gouge the weak center of New Orleans' D-line; Tony Gonzalez will make key third down receptions against their average linebackers to keep the Falcons on the field. The Saints may have an elite QB with plenty of weapons, but the rest of the team is just average. This is the year we (and they) find that out.

#11: 'Til Death Do Us Part

Most teams are in search of their identity, of their leader, of the whip-smart coach who will take them to the promised land. Some, like the Saints, Ravens and Cowboys, seem to be in the midst of golden ages. There's always hope in these towns that have yet to peak - they're in the courtship or honeymoon phase. To continue the analogy, the Patriots are on the downside of their second marriage. The kids (Josh McDaniels, Eric Mangini, Charlie Weis) have moved out; the good times are almost a decade in the past; all that's left are the two people at the center (Tom Brady and Bill Belichick) starting to feel their age. This feeling was punctuated by a career-threatening injury to Wes Welker and an absolutely brain-dead playoff loss to Baltimore.

Tom Brady might still be an elite QB in this league (we can debate that later) and Randy Moss still might have something left in the tank, but this offense lacks creativity. The overhaul performed by McDaniels in 2007 has grown stale - you double cover the slot, you jam Randy at the line. Everyone knows they can't run the ball with Laurence Maroney and the remains of Fred Taylor. The thrill is gone, and Bill Belichick does not seem to care. This team needs a new offensive co-ordinator in a hurry, or else those Brady to LA rumors may come to fruition.

And what of the side of the ball the genius knows so well? The Pats did well to resign space-eating NT Vince Wilfork, but the rest of the unit is comprised of uninspired late round picks like Jonathon Wilhite and Pierre Woods. The 3-4 scheme that made the Pats so trendy in their miracle 2001 run is now commonplace - every team in the division uses it, and the Fins and Jets did it with better results in 2009. When key pieces like Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel loped off for greener pastures, New England's defense was exposed for what it really was - the product of a bunch of draft day trading down, mediocre players playing in the shadow of a Hall-of-Fame coach.  It's not unlike the way Mike Shanahan eventually played his way out of Denver - without a general manager to look over their shoulders,  megalomaniacal coaches often spell their own end.

Though the Saints won the Super Bowl last year, there was no regular season moment so memorable or so indicative of the state of a team as when Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 in Indianapolis, holding a 4 point lead. It was the act of aging king, a cornered lion. Belichick needed to make that yardage, to be called a risk-taking genius again. But the thrill was gone.

#12: I Want Winners

Doesn't every coach want people that want to win? Furthermore, shouldn't ever football player want to win? More wins means more money, but it can also mean more pain and more sacrifice. In football, more than in any other sports, players win when they sell out to the coach's system and attitude, both on and off the field. Mike Nolan couldn't get it done in San Francisco not because he wasn't a gifted football mind, but because the players really weren't all that interested. If San Francisco regains control of the NFC and restores even a measure of its faded glory, we can all trace the source of the success back to this moment:

Since that speech, Mike Singletary has led the San Francisco 49ers to a 13-9 record. While that might not seem all that impressive, he has waded through injury, the QB play of Shaun Hill and Alex Smith, as well as the most lengthy contract holdout of 2009. He took a defensive unit best known as "Patrick Willis and 10 overpaid nobodies" and made them a force to be reckoned with. Without sitting in on a single offensive meeting, he took the player towards whom the above rant was directed (Vernon Davis), and made him one of the top 3 tight ends in the league. They beat the division leading Cardinals twice last year and with Kurt Warner gone, they should waltz to 9-7 at a minimum and host a playoff game.

Even if you do not believe in Alex Smith (and I certainly don't - if I did, I would rank San Fran as an elite NFC club), there's no denying this 49er team has the ingredients to be a playoff team, in the mold of the 2008 Ravens or 2009 Jets. The QB may be shaky at best, but with a solid 3-4 defense led by an imposing nose tackle (Abreu Franklin is a victim of East-coast bias) and a young, beefed-up offensive line (bolstered by 1st-rounders Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis), this team can control the game at the point of attack. Stopping the run and pounding the ground with an elite back (Frank Gore certainly qualifies) are more than enough to win in the NFC West. One advantage the 49ers have is that Singletary has more experience than either Harbaugh or Rex Ryan - once in the playoffs, he can get this team believing and make them truly dangerous.

But what if, hope among hopes, Alex Smith is beyond merely competent? He'll find a bevy of weapons, from Davis to Michael Crabtree to newly acquired speedster Ted Ginn. Singletary's genius will be given it's ultimate test in this Ohio State bust-out, who if effectively unleashed could make this one of the most fearsome offenses in the conference. When you've got players believing and young talent in place, the sky is the limit. It took over a decade, but this team may finally be ready to win/love again.

#13: Lights Out

When LaDainian Tomlinson became the best non-QB player in football, a window opened for the San Diego Chargers. Rising teams and new contenders are always judged in part on their "window" - the time during which they will be consistently one of the best teams in football. Windows that depend on running backs are the briefest and most desperate of all - ask the Seattle Seahawks. Yet, as Tomlinson entered his later years, the Chargers got younger and more threatening, adding studs like Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Cromartie and Shaun Philips. Yet, with everyone at their prime, for the past four seasons, the Bolts have made an impact in the playoffs a single time, and that was with Billy Volek and Michael Turner leading the charge (one of the many poor decisions made by general manager A.J. Smith was not developing Turner into a platoon back). Whether you believe LT will be truly missed or not, we can all agree the Chargers are done as an elite football team, at least for the moment.

The thirteenth position in an NFL Power Rankings has special significance - this is the last team not worthy of a playoff berth. Of course we'll see those powder blue jerseys hosting a game on wild-card weekend, maybe against the Dolphins or Texans. The AFC West, which has as many as four teams rebuilding at the moment, is too weak for the only team with a good quarterback to not dominate. However, it's unlikely San Diego walk into that game with ten wins. They've undergone upheaval, failed to cultivate stars, and now face a variety of new on and off the field issues once concealed. The most obvious of these is their trio of stars who want new contracts.

Stalwart red-zone weapon Antonio Gates aside, Vincent Jackson is the most explosive player left on the Chargers, a mixture of Andre Johnson and a telephone pole, who can dominate any defensive back in the league with his size and strength. He wants a great deal of money, and an ugly, year-long holdout seems a foregone conclusion. Marcus McNeill, the only above average player on the terrible O-line, also wants a payday. McNeill must be brought in the fold to prevent a losing record - Jackson may have to wait. Throw in Shawne Merriman, who has decline since he stopped taking steroids, and wants to be traded, Smith doesn't have time to worry about Cromartie's replacement (the corner was shipped out due to character issues), or how to fill the gaping hole left by NT Jamal Williams.

Oh, and Norv. Poor Norv, never quite good enough to take this team anywhere, yet saddled with them for at least another two seasons, while Rivers begins to get adventurous with his throws. Sadly, Turner is one of the most reliable aspects of what remains in San Diego - his offensive prowess will certainly hold up its end of the bargain. He's likely to mold young Ryan Matthews into a capable starting back, and supplement accordingly with Darren Sproles. Without Jackson, this will look more like the Drew Brees vintage Bolts, minus the stout defense. It's more than enough in the West, but you can forget it against the good teams.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Favre

"3 time NFL mvp reportedly has doctor's appointment next week."

The piece Will Leitch wrote about The Decision applies here. There's an illusion at play 100% of the time in sports - that the players care about more than themselves, than the money, than their health. That they sell out, love the team and the region as much as the fans, care about their legacy and the history of the game. The truth is, Nick Mangold and Percy Harvin don't go home and watch the NFL network - they play video games or golf, go to clubs, try to heal. The game isnt a past time to them, its a profession. Most of the time, players keep quiet because they know theyre lucky to play the game at all, or get paid enough to pretend. We think of athletes as making tremendous sacrifice, when in fact they are pampered babies.

The biggest stories in sports recently have been about players like Lebron and Favre tearing a hole in the curtain, revealing this world for what it really is - the biggest assholes you went to high school with having their egos stroked and their wills enforced, public be damned. The way Favre has acted over the past 2 years (and possible 5, if you're a Packer fan) has been unprecedentedly self-centered, offensive and condescending, both to the media and the public. HE SENT TEXT MESSAGES OUT YESTERDAY ANNOUNCING HE WAS STEPPING AWAY, almost for the sole purpose to get people talking about him. Remember guys, I'm still here, I'm still the big story, this is still all about me. 

Lebron may have acted odiously, may have stabbed the Cleveland fans in the back, but at least we knew he was going to do it. He was a free agent - he was entitled to do whatever he wanted. Favre is under contract to the Vikings - what few people are saying, but must be understood, is that his current actions constitute a holdout. Here is a man at the tail end of his career, making 13 million dollars a year, who is staying away from camp not even for the money, but so his coach, his owner and his fans will come crawling back, begging for him to return. Montana, Unitas or Namath this ain't. Favre is not burning out or fading away. He is shooting his guns straight into the air, demanding attention like a deranged English king, hoping everyone will notice and bring up his glory days again. This guy won 1 super bowl, the same as Phil Simms, Brad Johnson and Mark Rypien. Time to go away.

#14: The Middle Children of History

It hardly seems true now - never has a victory so dramatic slipped so quickly, so unheralded, into the past. Perhaps it was the lesser Manning wining the MVP, the man who guaranteed victory shooting himself in the leg, or the game's hero being cut from his second team in as many years. There is something about Super Bowl XLII that seems distant, unrelated to the New York Giants of today. One time champs like Favre's Packers or Ray's Ravens echoed through the decade to come, always respected, always in contention. Perhaps it's the retirement of Michael Strahan and Antonio Pierce, or the way Tom Coughlin went right back to his crotchety old ways, but that magical run and upset victory may as well have never happened. The G-men enter 2010 in their customary fashion - a solid team in the upper half, if not upper echelon, of the NFC.

Their are two obvious weaknesses, both of which the team failed to address in the offseason. Like many scheme-heavy, star-poor defenses, the Giants backslid with the loss of their co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They did not elect to throw Bill Sheridan to the dogs however, so it will be up to the ineffectual defensive play-caller to get a different result with the same ingredients, most egregiously a linebacking corps led by spare parts like Danny Clark, Michael Boley and the remains of Keith Bulluck. Maybe it's unfair to say so, but Lawrence Taylor these guys are not. Their top draft pick? Another defensive end, the volatile, unfinished Jason Pierre-Paul, who, if he sees the field at all, will only raise the ire of the already disgruntled  Osi Umenyiora. However, don't expect this Drew Rosenhaus-born monster to have any impact in the league, at least not while Coughlin clutches at his last days of power.

The other problem? As vaunted as that Giants O-line was for about a year and a half, they have not created much of a running game. I could easily blame this on the 270 pounds of Brandon Jacobs, or the bow-legged awkwardness of Ahmad Bradshaw, but the Giants elected to add youth neither on the line or in the backfield. Therefore, the same below average running game that led to Eli throwing for over 4000 yards last season returns, this time a year older. Manning and his receivers, each of whom (Smith, Manningham and Nicks) is a budding young star in this league, did more than pull their weight last season. However, in the Meadowlands, airing it out does not generally lead to victories.

In the crowded, cantankerous NFC East, the Giants might be the least talented on paper. They certainly made the fewest improvements in the offseason. Though I do not expect the defense to be as dreadful as it was in 2009, there's no believing this is more than a 10-win team. The men in blue will always be tough customers, but this era may have used up its last lucky charm. 9-7.

#15: Small Hands, Short Receivers, Can't Lose

You know why the Carolina Panthers rank this high? Because they have the best running back combination in the NFL. Smash (Jonathan Stewart) and Dash (Deangelo Williams) sure cover up a lot of problems - they turned a Jake Delhomme wildfire and turned it into at 8-8 finish in 2009. This year, they could be a sleeper, the outdoor tough guys coming to muss up the preening dome teams in Atlanta and New Orleans. John Fox is entering the final year of his contract, and few coaches will command a higher salary on the open market. He's got nothing to lose, and a talented, if unpolished, group of players. This team will absolutely be dangerous, as they were down the stretch, going 4-1 with Matt Moore at the helm.

Was Moore an illusion? His 98.5 rating in limited action last year bespeaks a possible diamond-in-the-rough, a la Tony Romo (on the other hand, Moore played college ball at Oregon State, where he took over after the Derek Anderson era). He has a definite rapport with Steve Smith, and seems to command respect from the less mercurial players as well. Yet the Panthers used their highest pick (which was in the second round) on Jimmy Clausen, the controversial blue-blood from Notre Dame. Will this be the Anderson-Brady Quinn hullabaloo part 2, a maddening tug-o-war between inadequate passers that eventually destroyed the Browns umpteen times over? If Fox is worth his salt, he will go with one out of the gate and stick with him, knowing the outcome of the season is largely irrelevant anyway.

Defensively, the major change is the loss of Julius Peppers, who many in the organization have to be happy to see leave. Peppers was a disruptive force, both on and off the field - his absence will allow the defense to operate more organically, with a more versatile star, Jon Beason. Joining Beason in the linebacking corps is one of the top five draft steals, Eric Norwood. The South Carolina product is a tackling, run stopping machine who will help out the run defense vacated by Maake Kemoeatu (now old, so therefore a Redskin).

Will the Panthers make the playoffs? Your gut says no, but then you think about them thrashing the Vikings last December, and it doesn't sound so crazy. If they play sound, and their QB doesn't give the ball away three times a game, they'll be in contention come the end of the season. 9 wins seems about right.

#16: The Not-Quite-Ready-for-Primetime Players

When we talk about the best coaches in football, one name conspicuously shows up year after year. Jeff Fisher may have a cool mustache and a philosophy, but its not clear that he has won enough to be in the "great coach" conversation. This guy has won less than John Fox. Fisher has a system, and his teams are generally competitive, but since the Steve McNair era ended, it's been one step forward, two steps back in Nashville. Last year, they stumbled to 0-6, then went 8-6 down the stretch thanks to 2,500 yards from scrimmage by Chris Johnson. This upturn, combined with their 13-3 season two years ago, has many thinking the Titans are poised for a positive season. While they clearly have the coaching and the talent to be competitive, I don't view them as a playoff team.

One reason the Titans slid out of the gate last year was the departure of Albert Haynesworth, whose replacement, Jason Jones, is half the run blocker his predecessor was. After his pro-bowl season in 2008, cornerback Cortland Finnegan was just average. Perhaps his success was linked to defensive co-ordinator Jim Schwartz, who left for Detroit. Going into 2010, Tennessee still doesn't have a quality defensive tackle and still has the milquetoast Chuck Cecil calling defensive plays. Couple this with the club not resigning Keith Bulluck or Kyle Vanden Bosch, the clear leaders of the group, and the defense will continue to be in major disarray.

Okay, so maybe the offense, potent at times, will take the next step. Not so fast - every running back to breach the 2,000 yard mark has followed it up with a subpar season (O.J. Simpson was the best, compiling 1314 total yards in 1974, but only 4 TDs). Chris Johnson made his money on half a dozen absurdly long plays last year - a lot like Adrian Peterson in 2007. If defenses focus in on him, and he gets loose a little less, or, due to his small size, he suffers an injury, not even Jeff Fisher can tell you who will be taking the majority of the snaps. So here we go, four years later, and the fate of this team still rests on the uneasy shoulders of Vince Young.

The former longhorn's overnight disappearance and apparent suicidal ideations were put to rest by the Titans capable, if not strong, finish to last season. Now he enters the season as the clear starter for the first time since that situation transpired, and expectations have never been higher. While Kenny Britt is a good receiver, I see him more as an Anquan Boldin-style tough guy, not a true versatile number 1. The passing game will be average at best, if Young can keep his head in the game. Do not expect that option package to have the same success this year - with Tim Tebow entering the league, D-co's have plenty of reason to scheme against it.

All this only is only focusing on what the team can control. Their immaturity, tenuous offense and ravaged defense aside, they have to contend in the AFC South, against a juggernaut in Indy, and as we'll soon see, the newly arrived Houston Texans.