Moss or Owens: The Freakish Headcase Debate

Jerry Rice just entered the Hall of Fame. By the virtue of the fact that wide receiver is one of the flashiest and least physically punishing positions in football, his jaw-dropping stats garnered him the #1 position on the NFL Network's recent countdown of the top 100. There were only five other receivers on the list, and the only one of the current era was Randy Moss. Since Moss has been in the news (just a little bit) and T.O. just had one of the best performances of his 15 year career last night, I thought I would break down to the two signature wideouts of the generation. Is Moss really as good as people say? Does T.O. get nearly enough credit? Can Randy Moss be considered the second best wide receiver post-merger given his shenanigans? A run down of two original American personages:

1) Raw Stats

Randy Moss: 10 thousand yard seasons, 9 double digit TD seasons, 948 rec, 14778 yards (15.6 yards per reception), 153 TDs, 4 All-Pro Teams

Terrell Owens: 10 thousand yard seasons, 9 double digit TD seasons (Assuming he doesnt get injured this year), 1061 rec, 15721 yards (14.8 ypr), 151 total TDs 5 All-Pro Teams

TO has rushed for 257 yards and 3 TDS (including one last year at age 36), Randy 159 and 0 scores.

2) Who They Fought With

Okay, so let the Kobe/Jordan argument begin by dissecting the teams these two men played for. Who threw them each the most TDs? 

Randy Moss TDs

Daunte Culpepper (53)

Tom Brady (39)

Randall Cunningham (18)

Matt Cassell (11)

Terrell Owens TDs

Jeff Garcia (50)

Tony Romo (34)

Steve Young (24)

Donovan McNabb (20)

I'm not sure if this breakdown really settles anything. In my opinion, Daunte Culpepper was better in the years Randy played with him than Jeff Garcia ever dreamed of being (should also be noted T.O. played in about a season and half less games with Jeff than Randy did with Daunte).

The real point of demarcation comes in the next levels. To me, Randall Cunningham and Donovan are about a wash. Miles Austin aside, Tony Romo is no Tom Brady. I think the world had forgotten about Randy Moss to some extent by 2007, and Bill Belichick woke us all back up. The unique screw-the-world nature of that Patriots season makes it an obvious outlier in Moss' career. Not saying it wasn't amazing, I'm just saying put TO on that team and tell me he doesn't do something similar. They ran up the score - they did this with Moss deep - no two ways about it. 2007 was more of a Harlem Globetrotters like exhibition. It is certainly worth noting that Moss' record setting 1998 and 2007 teams both sacrificed offensive balance on the altar of Moss' freakish ability, and both lost memorably in the playoffs. Direct correlation? Probably not. 

3) Spin

Let's now look at each player's most dominant 3 consecutive season period - the results will surprise you. For Moss, it's actually his first three years in the league - 226 receptions, 4163 yards, 43 TDs. For Owens, its his first three years with Jeff Garcia, when he caught 290 balls (at least 90 each year), for the exact same 4163 yards and one less TD, 42. These stats confirm something I've always thought about Owens - he's a more valuable possession receiver than almost any other player of his generation. That hit he absorbed from Polamalu on that last drive last night? not his first. 

Both played next to a legend early in their careers, Moss with Chris Carter and T.O. with Rice. The difference is Moss was a first round pick, and thrown into the offense right away. When he was at his youngest, and fastest, he was ripping through defenses and catching long balls from the big arms of randall cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper. T.O. was not featured in the offense until his third season. Moss' dominance was from age 21-23, when he had a clear physical advantage over unsupecting corners. Owens didn't start his greatest rampage til he was 27. And i can't say this enough, that wasn't with Steve Young, that was with JEFF GARCIA. (49ers made the playoffs in two of those three years)

I think the argument begins to shift Owens way when we look at the NEXT best 3-year period for each player. For Moss, its his subsequent 3 years in Minnesota, when he caught 299 balls for 4212 yards and 34 TDs. Carter was gone, Daunte continued on (to two pro bowls), and Randy enjoyed some seriously scary numbers (followed by the 2004 season in which despite playing 16 games and catching 13 TDs, Moss walked off the field with 767 receiving yards amidst questions of effort - 2004 was also the only post Carter year the Moss Vikings made the playoffs, led by Nate Burleson). This was a continuation of his first hot streak - from 1998-2003, Randy Moss was the best receiver in the NFL 

T.O. on the other hand, due to injury and the Philly situation, wouldn't start going off in consecutive seasons again until he was 33, when he posted a 3-year run of 235 catches, 3547 yards an 38 TDs. He did this with the remains of Drew Bledsoe and a certain undrafted Northern Illinois QB whose collar bone shall not be named. He helped the 2006 Cowboys rally to the playoffs and the 2007 Boys were the best offense to ever play in the stadium with the hole in the roof so God can watch. In 2008, complaining of not enough balls his way, the Boys collapsed, losing a game in Pittsburgh they were winning (and in which TO had already scored) when Romo forced a throw to Jason Witten - it was returned for a TD. Owens was cut after this season.

4) Intangibles

Terrell Owens has been shipped out via trade or cut from 3 cities - San Francisco, Philly and Dallas. 

Randy Moss has been shipped out via trade or cut from 3 cities a total of 4 times - Minnesota, Oakland, New England and Minnesota again. I don't really blame the third dismissal of either receiver on them. Call this a wash.

I think the major case, the one hall of fame voters and football blowhards care about is the answer to this question: did they make the team better, so much better they were invaluable? They've both been to the playoffs 6 times, for a total of 12 games. but back to the guys they fought with category - Moss made it to the playoffs just once without Carter, again, the year Burleson led the Vikings in yards. His other two times? Tom Brady was at the helm. Owens only made the playoffs once with Rice and Steve Young, all the rest he was the best offensive player on the team. San Fran hasn't seen the playoffs since, and philly missed 2 of the next three years. The WAR/VORP advantage clearly goes to T.O.

   

They've each played in one Super Bowl. Moss caught 5 for 62 and a TD and lost the second biggest upset in Super Bowl history. Owens played with a fractured fibula (AKA broken leg) and caught 9 for 122 as a dynasty was confirmed. I'm willing to call this a wash, but you know how i really feel.

Lastly, effort. Last year, T.O. Had about 900 all purpose yards and 5 TDs on a horrendous Buffalo team - he average 52 yards a game, by far the worst mark of his career since he became a starter (this year he's back up to 96.3 on the 2-6 Bengals). Since the beginning of the season Randy Moss stopped trying in Minnesota (2004), he has played in 99 games, 32 with a fully functional Tom Brady. In the games with Brady, he's averaged 86 yards a game; in the games without, 54. That's a 40% dropoff, and that's including the 11-5 Matt Cassell year, plus the first 7 games of this year with good QBs (and obviously the Oakland debacle). Bottom line: Moss does not try when he does not think he can win or he does not feel he's getting paid what he deserves and the stats back it up. Even in 2005 when T.O. acted like an ass, held out, did pushups in his driveway and then tore his ACL, he averaged 109 yards a game in 7 games and scored 6 TDs.  We know for a fact T.O. will be in uniform next year - will his co-member of the 150 TD club?