Words on Plays

NFL High School Food Chain: Ducky Division

2011-08-09T16:51:00.000-07:00

Last year, my posts tapered off somewhere around #8 in my power rankings (at that late date in August it was the Brett Favres). In stead of doing 500 words on each team, many of which were very very wrong (apologies to the Bucs and Chiefs), this year the theme is NFL high school, where I go clique by clique, from the freaks to the geeks all the way to the Heathers (hint: Romeo Crennel is the only Heather). You might remember those old Nike commercials where Michael Vick and Brian Urlacher all go to the same school and help a young receiver reach greatness or some such on Friday night. You might not know what I'm talking about. Anyway, here's this year's Ducky Division - I've never seen Sixteen Candles, but I'm assuming this guy was there for comic relief and didn't end up getting Molly Ringwald. We could also call it the Landry Division, because if an interesting storyline does emerge from this group, it will certainly involve a crime of passion and a some bad indie rock.

32. Washington Redskins
Short-term and long-term success in the NFL is based on quarterback play. Mike Shanahan is currently choosing between Rex Grossman, the biggest punchline in the last decade of signal callers, and John Beck, a man who once threw 100 passes for a 1-15 Dolphins team, while getting sacked ten times (note: that completes his resume). Also, he's the same age as Philip Rivers and Eli Manning. Literally no other team in the league would have these men as third stringers. Combine this with a loss of depth along both the offensive and defensive lines, and the standard desperation move of bringing in Donte Stallworth on a one year deal, they look to be the worst team in the league. Playing in the tough as nails NFC East, their record should follow suit.

31. Buffalo Bills
Like their counterparts at #32, the Bills play a tough schedule every year. Buffalo fans have been beaten down so repeatedly over the years they are convinced they have found their savior in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who managed to win 4 games against teams with losing records last season. They also have the curse of playing in one of the most depressing parts of America; every year they fail to draw big name free agents, while losing some of their best players. This year, each level of the defense was weakened as DT Marcus Stroud bolted for New England, and former first rounders Paul Posluzny (MLB) and Donte Whitner (SS) thought they would rather play in Jacksonville and Cincinnati of all players, rather than another campaign in Orchard Park. Until they find the next Jim Kelly, seeing the Bills on your team's upcoming schedule will always feel like a bye week, no matter how entertainingly they lose.

30. Oakland Raiders
Hooray, nightmares! Look, I love the Oakland Raiders, but they lost their two best players in free agency in Asomugha and tight end Zach Miller. They also lost key pieces on their offensive line like Robert Gallery and Langston Walker. Firing Tom Cable sure looks like a mistake now, as he has migrated their power rushing philosophy and personnel to Seattle. Right now, the bad boys of the East Bay have few above average defensive players, a bunch of undersized receivers, and one Jason Campbell under center. We should call this the megalomaniacal owner model of team identity.

29. Denver Broncos
Orton-Tebow drama aside, there are two types of players on the Denver Broncos: old and bad. They continued that trend by bringing in Willis McGahee and Ty Warren. Whatever John Fox and John Elway are planning, you can bet they don't intend to see the end result on the field this year. In the process of affecting a massive scheme change, they drafted a player with the second overall pick that doesn't have an obvious position in the base defense. If Orton and Brandon Lloyd can come back and reproduce what they did in Josh McDaniel's high flying offensive system, the Wild Horses have a shot at 7-9. Yet even that seems unrealistic.

Carousel in the Sky Keeps on Turning

2011-06-15T15:56:00.000-07:00

Optimists called this year's draft class The Year of the Quarterback (a intellectual property lawsuit filed by 1983 is still mired in the appeals process). Realists might dub it the Year of the Lockout. Either way, trades were an impossibility during draft time, so more teams than ever inch towards a theoretical opening day without a clear starter. Six teams (Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Cincinnati and San Francisco) took QBs in the top 40 picks - Assuming Carson Palmer is serious about never playing for the Bengals again, 5 of those have no veteran to give the rookies a chance to learn in what may be a severely abridged preseason. Teams like Buffalo, Arizona and Miami seem to want to develop what they have in house, but that isn't much. To top it all off, for a variety of reasons, from suicidal tendencies to cardiovascular endurance to the return of Michael Vick, there are more viable QBs on the market for those teams wanting. When the season and free agency do get underway (which they) will, here are the top some possible franchise-savers:

1. Vince Young (free agent)
Some time last season, it became obvious that Titans owner Bud Adams was going to have to pick between Young and 16-year head coach Jeff Fisher. He's apparently picked neither, cutting them both loose. Of the QBs available, VY the youngest, and has enjoyed the most recent success (a 26-13 record as a starter, including recording a 98 passer rating last year before being benched by Fisher).

Drawbacks: Young isn't an accurate, high-volume passer - he needs a solid O-line and a running game to support him. He's had off-the-field issues, both personal and criminal. These may have stemmed from his tumultuous relationship with his head coach. Young will require a strong support system and the unwavering support of coaches and fans to rebuild his confidence.

Where He Fits: While putting him on South Beach with Brandon Marshall might not sound like the best idea, The Dolphins offer Young the ideal team identity for his skill sets; a variety of receivers, an underrated tight end in Anthony Fasano, and plenty of protection up front. While the current buzz points towards Washington, that doesn't seem like a fit schematically, and the Skins may be too far away to commit more a large sum of money to another injury concern at QB.

2. Kyle Orton (Broncos 2nd string)
The longer the lockout lasts, the more likely it becomes Orton remains in Denver. If he doesn't, however, he may write a third successful act in his brief career. In Josh McDaniels' pass-happy, no-running back offense, Orton put up Pro Bowl-fringe numbers before succumbing to injury. When healthy, he's an accurate, efficient passer - think of him as Chad Pennington with a more reliable deep ball.

Drawbacks: You could also think of him as Matt Schaub with a less reliable deep ball - Orton has never really shown up in a big game. His Bears and Broncos teams both narrowly missed the playoffs in 2008 and 2009. Also, the injuries.

Where he fits: It would require a reconfiguration of their offense, but Orton could restore some of the finesse to the Arizona passing attack, which seemed to be operating under the influence of alcohol during the 46.7% Completion Percentage Era of John Skelton. Minnesota also offers a variety of weapons, and Orton bears enough similarities to #12 overall pick Christian Ponder to have some educational value. Basically, this guy needs good players around him, and then he can lead you to 9 wins, if healthy.

3. Carson Palmer (retirement purgatory)
We've all had the flashes - this guy just looks like a quarterback. He had the elite year. He had THE injury. He recovered and threw a lot of touchdowns and a lot of picks. He had another injury. He started slow some years. He got the Bengals to the playoffs twice. Nobody respects him. I look at Palmer and I see Vinny Testaverde - a guy hampered by injuries, bad management and an even worse team about to enter the second phase of his career. Vinny didn't throw more TDs than interceptions in a full season until he was 32. Palmer is a year younger, is clearly a leader, and just needs a release.

Drawbacks: Injuries and turnovers. He's had a lot of both.

Where He Fits: Palmer is the one guy on this list who doesn't have any true physical limitations in his game. He can throw in any weather, and has made due with subpar receivers (check out this doozy from last year). Which leads me to this crazy idea - Buffalo. Sure, he would come in as the back-up to his former back-up, Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Palmer seems more than ready to swallow some pride. The Bengals will likely want him out of the conference, however, so I see him as the next likely victim of the Dan Snyder Career Ravaging Machine.

4. Donovan McNabb (free agent)
Here's the capstone backhanded compliment McNabb: he's the greatest quarterback in the history of one of the NFL's 32 franchises, and not close to the worst one. We know he's not John Elway or Tom Brady, but can he be Phil Simms or Dan Fouts? Last year was McNabb's first fully healthy, fully awful year in the league. Was this just an early-30s hiccup like the one experienced by Brett Favre? Were the Redskins simply a terrible team AND a terrible fit? You can bet exactly one team will push their chips to the middle on the assumption McNabb has one more Randall Cunningham-style redemption left in his tank. He's lead young teams, he's lead high-powered offenses, and Lord knows he has something to prove.

Drawbacks: Cardiovascular endurance.

Where He Fits: San Francisco tried to make a go of it with Troy Smith, a terrible McNabb clone, so why not take a shot with the real thing? Minnesota seems to be a team about plummett off an age-induced cliff, so letting Christian Ponder wait a year while this last generation of Vikings makes a run at the title might make some sense.

Moss or Owens: The Freakish Headcase Debate

2010-11-09T05:39:00.000-08:00

Jerry Rice just entered the Hall of Fame. By the virtue of the fact that wide receiver is one of the flashiest and least physically punishing positions in football, his jaw-dropping stats garnered him the #1 position on the NFL Network's recent countdown of the top 100. There were only five other receivers on the list, and the only one of the current era was Randy Moss. Since Moss has been in the news (just a little bit) and T.O. just had one of the best performances of his 15 year career last night, I thought I would break down to the two signature wideouts of the generation. Is Moss really as good as people say? Does T.O. get nearly enough credit? Can Randy Moss be considered the second best wide receiver post-merger given his shenanigans? A run down of two original American personages:

1) Raw Stats

Randy Moss: 10 thousand yard seasons, 9 double digit TD seasons, 948 rec, 14778 yards (15.6 yards per reception), 153 TDs, 4 All-Pro Teams

Terrell Owens: 10 thousand yard seasons, 9 double digit TD seasons (Assuming he doesnt get injured this year), 1061 rec, 15721 yards (14.8 ypr), 151 total TDs 5 All-Pro Teams

TO has rushed for 257 yards and 3 TDS (including one last year at age 36), Randy 159 and 0 scores.

2) Who They Fought With

Okay, so let the Kobe/Jordan argument begin by dissecting the teams these two men played for. Who threw them each the most TDs?

Randy Moss TDs

Daunte Culpepper (53)

Tom Brady (39)

Randall Cunningham (18)

Matt Cassell (11)

Terrell Owens TDs

Jeff Garcia (50)

Tony Romo (34)

Steve Young (24)

Donovan McNabb (20)

I'm not sure if this breakdown really settles anything. In my opinion, Daunte Culpepper was better in the years Randy played with him than Jeff Garcia ever dreamed of being (should also be noted T.O. played in about a season and half less games with Jeff than Randy did with Daunte).

The real point of demarcation comes in the next levels. To me, Randall Cunningham and Donovan are about a wash. Miles Austin aside, Tony Romo is no Tom Brady. I think the world had forgotten about Randy Moss to some extent by 2007, and Bill Belichick woke us all back up. The unique screw-the-world nature of that Patriots season makes it an obvious outlier in Moss' career. Not saying it wasn't amazing, I'm just saying put TO on that team and tell me he doesn't do something similar. They ran up the score - they did this with Moss deep - no two ways about it. 2007 was more of a Harlem Globetrotters like exhibition. It is certainly worth noting that Moss' record setting 1998 and 2007 teams both sacrificed offensive balance on the altar of Moss' freakish ability, and both lost memorably in the playoffs. Direct correlation? Probably not.

3) Spin

Let's now look at each player's most dominant 3 consecutive season period - the results will surprise you. For Moss, it's actually his first three years in the league - 226 receptions, 4163 yards, 43 TDs. For Owens, its his first three years with Jeff Garcia, when he caught 290 balls (at least 90 each year), for the exact same 4163 yards and one less TD, 42. These stats confirm something I've always thought about Owens - he's a more valuable possession receiver than almost any other player of his generation. That hit he absorbed from Polamalu on that last drive last night? not his first.

Both played next to a legend early in their careers, Moss with Chris Carter and T.O. with Rice. The difference is Moss was a first round pick, and thrown into the offense right away. When he was at his youngest, and fastest, he was ripping through defenses and catching long balls from the big arms of randall cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper. T.O. was not featured in the offense until his third season. Moss' dominance was from age 21-23, when he had a clear physical advantage over unsupecting corners. Owens didn't start his greatest rampage til he was 27. And i can't say this enough, that wasn't with Steve Young, that was with JEFF GARCIA. (49ers made the playoffs in two of those three years)

I think the argument begins to shift Owens way when we look at the NEXT best 3-year period for each player. For Moss, its his subsequent 3 years in Minnesota, when he caught 299 balls for 4212 yards and 34 TDs. Carter was gone, Daunte continued on (to two pro bowls), and Randy enjoyed some seriously scary numbers (followed by the 2004 season in which despite playing 16 games and catching 13 TDs, Moss walked off the field with 767 receiving yards amidst questions of effort - 2004 was also the only post Carter year the Moss Vikings made the playoffs, led by Nate Burleson). This was a continuation of his first hot streak - from 1998-2003, Randy Moss was the best receiver in the NFL

T.O. on the other hand, due to injury and the Philly situation, wouldn't start going off in consecutive seasons again until he was 33, when he posted a 3-year run of 235 catches, 3547 yards an 38 TDs. He did this with the remains of Drew Bledsoe and a certain undrafted Northern Illinois QB whose collar bone shall not be named. He helped the 2006 Cowboys rally to the playoffs and the 2007 Boys were the best offense to ever play in the stadium with the hole in the roof so God can watch. In 2008, complaining of not enough balls his way, the Boys collapsed, losing a game in Pittsburgh they were winning (and in which TO had already scored) when Romo forced a throw to Jason Witten - it was returned for a TD. Owens was cut after this season.

4) Intangibles

Terrell Owens has been shipped out via trade or cut from 3 cities - San Francisco, Philly and Dallas.

Randy Moss has been shipped out via trade or cut from 3 cities a total of 4 times - Minnesota, Oakland, New England and Minnesota again. I don't really blame the third dismissal of either receiver on them. Call this a wash.

I think the major case, the one hall of fame voters and football blowhards care about is the answer to this question: did they make the team better, so much better they were invaluable? They've both been to the playoffs 6 times, for a total of 12 games. but back to the guys they fought with category - Moss made it to the playoffs just once without Carter, again, the year Burleson led the Vikings in yards. His other two times? Tom Brady was at the helm. Owens only made the playoffs once with Rice and Steve Young, all the rest he was the best offensive player on the team. San Fran hasn't seen the playoffs since, and philly missed 2 of the next three years. The WAR/VORP advantage clearly goes to T.O.

They've each played in one Super Bowl. Moss caught 5 for 62 and a TD and lost the second biggest upset in Super Bowl history. Owens played with a fractured fibula (AKA broken leg) and caught 9 for 122 as a dynasty was confirmed. I'm willing to call this a wash, but you know how i really feel.

Lastly, effort. Last year, T.O. Had about 900 all purpose yards and 5 TDs on a horrendous Buffalo team - he average 52 yards a game, by far the worst mark of his career since he became a starter (this year he's back up to 96.3 on the 2-6 Bengals). Since the beginning of the season Randy Moss stopped trying in Minnesota (2004), he has played in 99 games, 32 with a fully functional Tom Brady. In the games with Brady, he's averaged 86 yards a game; in the games without, 54. That's a 40% dropoff, and that's including the 11-5 Matt Cassell year, plus the first 7 games of this year with good QBs (and obviously the Oakland debacle). Bottom line: Moss does not try when he does not think he can win or he does not feel he's getting paid what he deserves and the stats back it up. Even in 2005 when T.O. acted like an ass, held out, did pushups in his driveway and then tore his ACL, he averaged 109 yards a game in 7 games and scored 6 TDs. We know for a fact T.O. will be in uniform next year - will his co-member of the 150 TD club?

2010-09-27T10:15:00.000-07:00

2010-09-20T09:43:00.001-07:00

#8: Nice Guys Finished

2010-08-29T18:44:00.000-07:00

Last year, the Minnesota Vikings were not only the most talented team in football, they were also the best on the field. Change two plays or less in the championship game, and the Violet Favres would have been in the Super Bowl, with a formidable defense and an arsenal of offensive weapons. But that third down happened, and Brad Childress made the poor substitution, Favre made the stupid throw, and the old overtime rules ushered God's chosen Saints to Miami, and eventually to victory. Now that season 3 of Favre watch is over, we can assess the team Minnesota will put on the field this year.

The Vikings are a top three team talent-wise. Jared Allen. Adrian Peterson. Steve Hutchinson. Every unit has a pro-bowler. The weakest part of the team happens to be the most important - the man in charge. Chilly learned game management and play-calling from Andy Reid, the single-most frustrating head coach in NFL history. Favre's poor decision making will always be a fact of life - Childress' need not be.

If Zygi Wilf had any sense he would have swapped coaches after the hugely successful 2009 campaign. The fans were on his side; Chilly's popularity was at an all-time low. Look at what hard-scrabble football men like Mike Smith and Bill Parcells were able to do with bottom-feeder teams in Atlanta and Miami. If Wilf had hired Shanahan off the street January 20th, this team would be #1. But Childress is still at the helm, only without the crucial element of control. Replacing him would be a New York move, reactionary and impolite. That's not how this franchise works. That's not how Minnesota works. Maybe that's why they never win.

X's and O's wise, the defense is aging. Not declining, but perhaps entering a phase like the mid-decade Patriots, where once elite players are relying more on their savvy than natural ability. The Vikings are a well-coached unit (it's a crime Leslie Frazier has not been offered a head coaching position), and they'll continue to be able to dominate average and poor teams.

Enough beating around the bush. What stands between the Vikings and ultimate glory is themselves. Favre and Peterson both have chronic turnover problems. Again, a more forceful organization might bench Peterson to break him of his habits, or tell Favre to get his ass in camp. But Wilf needs to sell tickets and play nice to get his new stadium. Until he becomes ruthless and relentless in his pursuit of a title, and speaks truth to his all-too-pampered stars, the Vikings will always be a smart play short of a championship. With the Packers on the rise and the Lions becoming competent, the Norsemen tumble from the ranks of the elite. 10-6.

#9: Tunatown

2010-08-25T20:36:00.000-07:00

When Bill Parcells took over the Miami Dolphins, with former Cowboys offensive line coach Tony Sparano as a figurehead, most of us assumed we had not heard the last from the Fins. What we did not count on was the wildcat, the re(re-re?)birth of Chad Pennington and an 11-win season that claimed the AFC East. The new regime's first draft set the table for two things Parcells covets - a strong left tackle, a well-groomed QB with plenty of college experience. The 2008 season was just a bonus. After a disappointing 2009 in which the young team was ambushed by a difficult schedule and a shaky start due to Pennington's third season-ending shoulder injury, Miami is reloaded, and a legitimate top 5 team in the AFC.

Whether they parley that status into a Super Bowl run is at least somewhat dependent on that man on the bicycle, Brandon Marshall. Another variable in the traditional Parcells formula (at least since he enjoyed actual success with the Giants) is a massive wideout who demands double coverage, scores in bunches, and is generally a pain in the ass. Keyshawn Johnson. Terrell Owens. Bill likes challenges. And, you know, hats. If Marshall can bring his 4th consecutive 100-catch season, then the Dolphins will be fearsome.

Big name receivers, however, generally fail to perform up to expectations the first year after a trade. The odds seem against Marshall being as big a factor as he was in Denver. With a defense featuring Karlos Dansby and a two-headed running back, the most talked about acquisition in South Florida will be the cherry on top of an already solid sundae. The more important factors will be the continuing maturation of Chad Henne (entering year three) and the health of the powerful offensive line. Any team with these ingredients will compete, and for the long term. Miami may have been unlucky last year, but 2010 should translate to 10 wins.

What's the catch then? Too many teams with great running games fail to realize that younger backs make for more explosive plays. By sticking with Ronnie Brown (injuries) and Ricky Williams (ancient mariner syndrome), the Dolphins may be leaving themselves open to a tailspin. If one or both is unable to perform, this team will have to sling it, and after trading Greg Camarillo to the Vikings today, they're short on offensive firepower, with the exception of the volatile Marshall. Which would pretty much make them the Broncos (pick a year, any year). If the wildcat keeps working, on the other hand, this could easily be the team to beat.

#10: The Defense Rests

2010-08-16T09:51:00.000-07:00

There may have never been a team as blessed as last year's New Orleans Saints. From Robert Meachem snatching an interception out of a defensive back's hands and taking it in for the score to the phantom pass interference call that put them in field goal position against the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, everything fell just right for New Orleans. In 2008 they were a last-place 8-8 team, garnering an easy schedule. In 2009, they dominated a division that featured Jake Delhomme's Panthers, the banged-up Falcons and the imploded Buccaneers. They played the Eagles minus McNabb. They scored 21 points on defense in Miami. Any way you put it, it was their year.

All we have to do is look at the recent New Dynasties on the Block to predict what is likely to happen in the Big Easy this year. After winning it all, the 2002 Patriots and 2006 Steelers stumbled badly, missing the playoffs and hovering around the .500 mark all year. With an opening trio of games against the 49ers, Vikins and Falcons (the latter two of which these rankings have yet to discuss), the Saints may realize very quickly that this is a new year that presents new challenges. When you win it all, the team seems flawless. A 1-2 start, and some very obvious problems will dominate the headlines.

Sean Payton is an offensive genius; more than one broadcaster will tell you this over the course of a season. We all remember that artistic double reverse to Reggie Bush that sent him flying 6 yards to the pylon. Now, let's go back to this 27-23 loss to the Bucs in 2007. The Saints led late, but Payton got nifty, calling the same double reverse that worked in the championship year. This time, Devery Henderson fumbled and the Saints lost the game. So, did Payton work out the kinks, or did the gamble just pay off? The Saints are run precision offense based on an undersized QB making accurate, split-second throws on crossing routes. A gust of wind in an outdoor game late in the year could derail them.

The part of the Saints' run most difficult to replicate will be the crazy-bananas play of Darren Sharper. His nose for the football and a few lucky bounces resulted in 376 return yards and 3 touchdowns. However, regression to the mean is a fact of football life. Just ask Ed Reed: in 2008, the Ravens' safety accounted for 11 turnovers and three scores; the next year, his interceptions were down to three, and he only found the end one once. Baltimore also won two fewer games. Defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams would be the first to tell you the Saints D thrives on the big play. In 2010, it may just happen less frequently. The rest of the defense (none of whom made the pro bowl) remains a mediocre crew of role players.

That is to say nothing of the impeccable play of the no-name offensive line, or the relative health of mercurial running back Reggie Bush. The Saints were lucky AND good last year; this year they may just be good. More importantly, their division will be better. Carolina's Smash and Dash will gouge the weak center of New Orleans' D-line; Tony Gonzalez will make key third down receptions against their average linebackers to keep the Falcons on the field. The Saints may have an elite QB with plenty of weapons, but the rest of the team is just average. This is the year we (and they) find that out.

#11: 'Til Death Do Us Part

2010-08-10T17:03:00.000-07:00

Most teams are in search of their identity, of their leader, of the whip-smart coach who will take them to the promised land. Some, like the Saints, Ravens and Cowboys, seem to be in the midst of golden ages. There's always hope in these towns that have yet to peak - they're in the courtship or honeymoon phase. To continue the analogy, the Patriots are on the downside of their second marriage. The kids (Josh McDaniels, Eric Mangini, Charlie Weis) have moved out; the good times are almost a decade in the past; all that's left are the two people at the center (Tom Brady and Bill Belichick) starting to feel their age. This feeling was punctuated by a career-threatening injury to Wes Welker and an absolutely brain-dead playoff loss to Baltimore.

Tom Brady might still be an elite QB in this league (we can debate that later) and Randy Moss still might have something left in the tank, but this offense lacks creativity. The overhaul performed by McDaniels in 2007 has grown stale - you double cover the slot, you jam Randy at the line. Everyone knows they can't run the ball with Laurence Maroney and the remains of Fred Taylor. The thrill is gone, and Bill Belichick does not seem to care. This team needs a new offensive co-ordinator in a hurry, or else those Brady to LA rumors may come to fruition.

And what of the side of the ball the genius knows so well? The Pats did well to resign space-eating NT Vince Wilfork, but the rest of the unit is comprised of uninspired late round picks like Jonathon Wilhite and Pierre Woods. The 3-4 scheme that made the Pats so trendy in their miracle 2001 run is now commonplace - every team in the division uses it, and the Fins and Jets did it with better results in 2009. When key pieces like Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel loped off for greener pastures, New England's defense was exposed for what it really was - the product of a bunch of draft day trading down, mediocre players playing in the shadow of a Hall-of-Fame coach. It's not unlike the way Mike Shanahan eventually played his way out of Denver - without a general manager to look over their shoulders, megalomaniacal coaches often spell their own end.

Though the Saints won the Super Bowl last year, there was no regular season moment so memorable or so indicative of the state of a team as when Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 in Indianapolis, holding a 4 point lead. It was the act of aging king, a cornered lion. Belichick needed to make that yardage, to be called a risk-taking genius again. But the thrill was gone.

#12: I Want Winners

2010-08-08T16:08:00.000-07:00

Doesn't every coach want people that want to win? Furthermore, shouldn't ever football player want to win? More wins means more money, but it can also mean more pain and more sacrifice. In football, more than in any other sports, players win when they sell out to the coach's system and attitude, both on and off the field. Mike Nolan couldn't get it done in San Francisco not because he wasn't a gifted football mind, but because the players really weren't all that interested. If San Francisco regains control of the NFC and restores even a measure of its faded glory, we can all trace the source of the success back to this moment:

Since that speech, Mike Singletary has led the San Francisco 49ers to a 13-9 record. While that might not seem all that impressive, he has waded through injury, the QB play of Shaun Hill and Alex Smith, as well as the most lengthy contract holdout of 2009. He took a defensive unit best known as "Patrick Willis and 10 overpaid nobodies" and made them a force to be reckoned with. Without sitting in on a single offensive meeting, he took the player towards whom the above rant was directed (Vernon Davis), and made him one of the top 3 tight ends in the league. They beat the division leading Cardinals twice last year and with Kurt Warner gone, they should waltz to 9-7 at a minimum and host a playoff game.

Even if you do not believe in Alex Smith (and I certainly don't - if I did, I would rank San Fran as an elite NFC club), there's no denying this 49er team has the ingredients to be a playoff team, in the mold of the 2008 Ravens or 2009 Jets. The QB may be shaky at best, but with a solid 3-4 defense led by an imposing nose tackle (Abreu Franklin is a victim of East-coast bias) and a young, beefed-up offensive line (bolstered by 1st-rounders Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis), this team can control the game at the point of attack. Stopping the run and pounding the ground with an elite back (Frank Gore certainly qualifies) are more than enough to win in the NFC West. One advantage the 49ers have is that Singletary has more experience than either Harbaugh or Rex Ryan - once in the playoffs, he can get this team believing and make them truly dangerous.

But what if, hope among hopes, Alex Smith is beyond merely competent? He'll find a bevy of weapons, from Davis to Michael Crabtree to newly acquired speedster Ted Ginn. Singletary's genius will be given it's ultimate test in this Ohio State bust-out, who if effectively unleashed could make this one of the most fearsome offenses in the conference. When you've got players believing and young talent in place, the sky is the limit. It took over a decade, but this team may finally be ready to win/love again.

#13: Lights Out

2010-08-05T13:51:00.000-07:00

When LaDainian Tomlinson became the best non-QB player in football, a window opened for the San Diego Chargers. Rising teams and new contenders are always judged in part on their "window" - the time during which they will be consistently one of the best teams in football. Windows that depend on running backs are the briefest and most desperate of all - ask the Seattle Seahawks. Yet, as Tomlinson entered his later years, the Chargers got younger and more threatening, adding studs like Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Cromartie and Shaun Philips. Yet, with everyone at their prime, for the past four seasons, the Bolts have made an impact in the playoffs a single time, and that was with Billy Volek and Michael Turner leading the charge (one of the many poor decisions made by general manager A.J. Smith was not developing Turner into a platoon back). Whether you believe LT will be truly missed or not, we can all agree the Chargers are done as an elite football team, at least for the moment.

The thirteenth position in an NFL Power Rankings has special significance - this is the last team not worthy of a playoff berth. Of course we'll see those powder blue jerseys hosting a game on wild-card weekend, maybe against the Dolphins or Texans. The AFC West, which has as many as four teams rebuilding at the moment, is too weak for the only team with a good quarterback to not dominate. However, it's unlikely San Diego walk into that game with ten wins. They've undergone upheaval, failed to cultivate stars, and now face a variety of new on and off the field issues once concealed. The most obvious of these is their trio of stars who want new contracts.

Stalwart red-zone weapon Antonio Gates aside, Vincent Jackson is the most explosive player left on the Chargers, a mixture of Andre Johnson and a telephone pole, who can dominate any defensive back in the league with his size and strength. He wants a great deal of money, and an ugly, year-long holdout seems a foregone conclusion. Marcus McNeill, the only above average player on the terrible O-line, also wants a payday. McNeill must be brought in the fold to prevent a losing record - Jackson may have to wait. Throw in Shawne Merriman, who has decline since he stopped taking steroids, and wants to be traded, Smith doesn't have time to worry about Cromartie's replacement (the corner was shipped out due to character issues), or how to fill the gaping hole left by NT Jamal Williams.

Oh, and Norv. Poor Norv, never quite good enough to take this team anywhere, yet saddled with them for at least another two seasons, while Rivers begins to get adventurous with his throws. Sadly, Turner is one of the most reliable aspects of what remains in San Diego - his offensive prowess will certainly hold up its end of the bargain. He's likely to mold young Ryan Matthews into a capable starting back, and supplement accordingly with Darren Sproles. Without Jackson, this will look more like the Drew Brees vintage Bolts, minus the stout defense. It's more than enough in the West, but you can forget it against the good teams.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Favre

2010-08-04T12:18:00.000-07:00

"3 time NFL mvp reportedly has doctor's appointment next week."

The piece Will Leitch wrote about The Decision applies here. There's an illusion at play 100% of the time in sports - that the players care about more than themselves, than the money, than their health. That they sell out, love the team and the region as much as the fans, care about their legacy and the history of the game. The truth is, Nick Mangold and Percy Harvin don't go home and watch the NFL network - they play video games or golf, go to clubs, try to heal. The game isnt a past time to them, its a profession. Most of the time, players keep quiet because they know theyre lucky to play the game at all, or get paid enough to pretend. We think of athletes as making tremendous sacrifice, when in fact they are pampered babies.

The biggest stories in sports recently have been about players like Lebron and Favre tearing a hole in the curtain, revealing this world for what it really is - the biggest assholes you went to high school with having their egos stroked and their wills enforced, public be damned. The way Favre has acted over the past 2 years (and possible 5, if you're a Packer fan) has been unprecedentedly self-centered, offensive and condescending, both to the media and the public. HE SENT TEXT MESSAGES OUT YESTERDAY ANNOUNCING HE WAS STEPPING AWAY, almost for the sole purpose to get people talking about him. Remember guys, I'm still here, I'm still the big story, this is still all about me.

Lebron may have acted odiously, may have stabbed the Cleveland fans in the back, but at least we knew he was going to do it. He was a free agent - he was entitled to do whatever he wanted. Favre is under contract to the Vikings - what few people are saying, but must be understood, is that his current actions constitute a holdout. Here is a man at the tail end of his career, making 13 million dollars a year, who is staying away from camp not even for the money, but so his coach, his owner and his fans will come crawling back, begging for him to return. Montana, Unitas or Namath this ain't. Favre is not burning out or fading away. He is shooting his guns straight into the air, demanding attention like a deranged English king, hoping everyone will notice and bring up his glory days again. This guy won 1 super bowl, the same as Phil Simms, Brad Johnson and Mark Rypien. Time to go away.

#14: The Middle Children of History

2010-08-03T20:20:00.000-07:00

It hardly seems true now - never has a victory so dramatic slipped so quickly, so unheralded, into the past. Perhaps it was the lesser Manning wining the MVP, the man who guaranteed victory shooting himself in the leg, or the game's hero being cut from his second team in as many years. There is something about Super Bowl XLII that seems distant, unrelated to the New York Giants of today. One time champs like Favre's Packers or Ray's Ravens echoed through the decade to come, always respected, always in contention. Perhaps it's the retirement of Michael Strahan and Antonio Pierce, or the way Tom Coughlin went right back to his crotchety old ways, but that magical run and upset victory may as well have never happened. The G-men enter 2010 in their customary fashion - a solid team in the upper half, if not upper echelon, of the NFC.

Their are two obvious weaknesses, both of which the team failed to address in the offseason. Like many scheme-heavy, star-poor defenses, the Giants backslid with the loss of their co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They did not elect to throw Bill Sheridan to the dogs however, so it will be up to the ineffectual defensive play-caller to get a different result with the same ingredients, most egregiously a linebacking corps led by spare parts like Danny Clark, Michael Boley and the remains of Keith Bulluck. Maybe it's unfair to say so, but Lawrence Taylor these guys are not. Their top draft pick? Another defensive end, the volatile, unfinished Jason Pierre-Paul, who, if he sees the field at all, will only raise the ire of the already disgruntled Osi Umenyiora. However, don't expect this Drew Rosenhaus-born monster to have any impact in the league, at least not while Coughlin clutches at his last days of power.

The other problem? As vaunted as that Giants O-line was for about a year and a half, they have not created much of a running game. I could easily blame this on the 270 pounds of Brandon Jacobs, or the bow-legged awkwardness of Ahmad Bradshaw, but the Giants elected to add youth neither on the line or in the backfield. Therefore, the same below average running game that led to Eli throwing for over 4000 yards last season returns, this time a year older. Manning and his receivers, each of whom (Smith, Manningham and Nicks) is a budding young star in this league, did more than pull their weight last season. However, in the Meadowlands, airing it out does not generally lead to victories.

In the crowded, cantankerous NFC East, the Giants might be the least talented on paper. They certainly made the fewest improvements in the offseason. Though I do not expect the defense to be as dreadful as it was in 2009, there's no believing this is more than a 10-win team. The men in blue will always be tough customers, but this era may have used up its last lucky charm. 9-7.

#15: Small Hands, Short Receivers, Can't Lose

2010-08-01T13:01:00.000-07:00

You know why the Carolina Panthers rank this high? Because they have the best running back combination in the NFL. Smash (Jonathan Stewart) and Dash (Deangelo Williams) sure cover up a lot of problems - they turned a Jake Delhomme wildfire and turned it into at 8-8 finish in 2009. This year, they could be a sleeper, the outdoor tough guys coming to muss up the preening dome teams in Atlanta and New Orleans. John Fox is entering the final year of his contract, and few coaches will command a higher salary on the open market. He's got nothing to lose, and a talented, if unpolished, group of players. This team will absolutely be dangerous, as they were down the stretch, going 4-1 with Matt Moore at the helm.

Was Moore an illusion? His 98.5 rating in limited action last year bespeaks a possible diamond-in-the-rough, a la Tony Romo (on the other hand, Moore played college ball at Oregon State, where he took over after the Derek Anderson era). He has a definite rapport with Steve Smith, and seems to command respect from the less mercurial players as well. Yet the Panthers used their highest pick (which was in the second round) on Jimmy Clausen, the controversial blue-blood from Notre Dame. Will this be the Anderson-Brady Quinn hullabaloo part 2, a maddening tug-o-war between inadequate passers that eventually destroyed the Browns umpteen times over? If Fox is worth his salt, he will go with one out of the gate and stick with him, knowing the outcome of the season is largely irrelevant anyway.

Defensively, the major change is the loss of Julius Peppers, who many in the organization have to be happy to see leave. Peppers was a disruptive force, both on and off the field - his absence will allow the defense to operate more organically, with a more versatile star, Jon Beason. Joining Beason in the linebacking corps is one of the top five draft steals, Eric Norwood. The South Carolina product is a tackling, run stopping machine who will help out the run defense vacated by Maake Kemoeatu (now old, so therefore a Redskin).

Will the Panthers make the playoffs? Your gut says no, but then you think about them thrashing the Vikings last December, and it doesn't sound so crazy. If they play sound, and their QB doesn't give the ball away three times a game, they'll be in contention come the end of the season. 9 wins seems about right.

#16: The Not-Quite-Ready-for-Primetime Players

2010-08-01T08:00:00.000-07:00

When we talk about the best coaches in football, one name conspicuously shows up year after year. Jeff Fisher may have a cool mustache and a philosophy, but its not clear that he has won enough to be in the "great coach" conversation. This guy has won less than John Fox. Fisher has a system, and his teams are generally competitive, but since the Steve McNair era ended, it's been one step forward, two steps back in Nashville. Last year, they stumbled to 0-6, then went 8-6 down the stretch thanks to 2,500 yards from scrimmage by Chris Johnson. This upturn, combined with their 13-3 season two years ago, has many thinking the Titans are poised for a positive season. While they clearly have the coaching and the talent to be competitive, I don't view them as a playoff team.

One reason the Titans slid out of the gate last year was the departure of Albert Haynesworth, whose replacement, Jason Jones, is half the run blocker his predecessor was. After his pro-bowl season in 2008, cornerback Cortland Finnegan was just average. Perhaps his success was linked to defensive co-ordinator Jim Schwartz, who left for Detroit. Going into 2010, Tennessee still doesn't have a quality defensive tackle and still has the milquetoast Chuck Cecil calling defensive plays. Couple this with the club not resigning Keith Bulluck or Kyle Vanden Bosch, the clear leaders of the group, and the defense will continue to be in major disarray.

Okay, so maybe the offense, potent at times, will take the next step. Not so fast - every running back to breach the 2,000 yard mark has followed it up with a subpar season (O.J. Simpson was the best, compiling 1314 total yards in 1974, but only 4 TDs). Chris Johnson made his money on half a dozen absurdly long plays last year - a lot like Adrian Peterson in 2007. If defenses focus in on him, and he gets loose a little less, or, due to his small size, he suffers an injury, not even Jeff Fisher can tell you who will be taking the majority of the snaps. So here we go, four years later, and the fate of this team still rests on the uneasy shoulders of Vince Young.

The former longhorn's overnight disappearance and apparent suicidal ideations were put to rest by the Titans capable, if not strong, finish to last season. Now he enters the season as the clear starter for the first time since that situation transpired, and expectations have never been higher. While Kenny Britt is a good receiver, I see him more as an Anquan Boldin-style tough guy, not a true versatile number 1. The passing game will be average at best, if Young can keep his head in the game. Do not expect that option package to have the same success this year - with Tim Tebow entering the league, D-co's have plenty of reason to scheme against it.

All this only is only focusing on what the team can control. Their immaturity, tenuous offense and ravaged defense aside, they have to contend in the AFC South, against a juggernaut in Indy, and as we'll soon see, the newly arrived Houston Texans.

#17: Steel Reserves

2010-07-24T08:59:00.000-07:00

Pittsburgh began their long slide to the middle of the league last season. With Troy Polamalu sidelined, the black and gold lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, a slide that pushed them out of the playoffs. The offseason was no better, as Santonio Holmes threw a drink in a woman's face and was thus shoved out of town. Starting left tackle Willie Colon blew out his Achilles a few weeks ago, weakening an already suspect offensive line. We all know what happened with Ben Roethlisberger; these allegations are very serious and they will not be the subject of humor on this forum. However, the situation must be addressed, as Steeler fans will be watching Byron Leftwich check the runner at first before firing away for the first four games of the season.

The one constant in Pittsburgh, besides defense, has been the presence of a forceful and inspirational head coach. As he enters his fourth year at the helm, the question must be asked: has Mike Tomlin demonstrated his grit and intelligence? We all know that hall-of-famer Dick Lebeau runs the defense, which was less than formidable without Polamalu, while Bruce Arians presides over the chaotic and inconsistent offense. What is Tomlin contributing to this picture? He's a Tampa-two defensive mind - his expertise has no bearing on the blitz-happy 3-4 Steeler defense. His inadequacy came out last season, as he stood on the sidelines helpless while Roethlisberger froze against the Browns. It's a crisis of leadership.

However, it's not just that the Steelers have no heart or soul. They are also lagging in the talent department, especially on offense. Hines Ward is a shell of his former self, and no other receiver on the roster has had a significant impact over an NFL season (note I exclude Antwaan Randle El, the prodigal son returned for some trickeration). Byron Leftwich and Rashard Mendenhall are among the worst QB-RB starting tandems in the league. Pittsburgh could be out of it before Big Ben even gets a chance to make an impact.

And what of the return of the Sleazy-haired One? Will he enter to the cheers or jeers of the home faithful? Will he ever show contrition for past behavior? He comes back without protection and his best receiver, in a campaign where winning and image rehabilitation will be of equal importance. Will he be distracted, desperate? This will start out one of the season's biggest storylines, but when the team is 4-6, fans will turn their attention elsewhere.

#18: Just Get Older, Baby!

2010-07-20T11:11:00.000-07:00

Shout out to my home town! This position in the ranking might seem like an insult, but based on where they finished out 2009, #18 marks quite an improvement. The Redskins have undergone a full body makeover this offseason, and that usually takes a year or two to show results. However, they've filled in with aging players at a lot of important places. Once again, Dan Snyder's short term need for attention is overpowering his long-term need for a respectable franchise.

Mike Shanahan! Donovan McNabb! Larry Johnson! It's the 2006 wild-card weekend on NBC! Snyder's decisions seems based on the gambler's paradox; if he takes enough risks, some of them will probably work out. As someone who passionately rooted for Brett Favre two year ago, I think McNabb is the best short term addition the team has made. His presence will be the polar opposite of Jason Campbell's - guys will be excited to come to work and will not press to make plays. McNabb might be average QB at this point in his career, but he exudes a confidence most of the young Redskins have never been around. That does not mean an offense whose best receiver remains Santana Moss will be elite, but they will not be god-awful.

As for Shanahan, the new flashy move is pushing out the old, as old Leatherface has come in conflict with Albert Haynesworth, the 100 million dollar man. If you pay a guy that much money, you might want to structure the defense around him, especially when he's your best player. Apparently, this logic doesn't appeal to Snyder or his new coach, who are forging ahead with the 3-4 defense, to exploit the speed of OLB Brian Orakpo. Skins fans might love the idea of Orakpo breaking the sack record, but inside linebacker London Fletcher will find himself overwhelmed at his size. Haynesworth will probably come to play, but an unhappy Albert is usually not an effective one.

The Redskins have radically changed course, from a team grooming a young QB to a desperately old team that needs to win now. When the Jets tried this two years ago with Favre, things started out relatively good, then disintegrated once the cold weather came. Injuries are McNabb's interceptions; if he goes down, the Skins go back to what they have been the past few years: the Buffalo Bills of the NFC East. A solid defense with no playmakers might keep you in games, but it does not take you to the mountaintop.

#19: Mild Cats

2010-07-07T22:12:00.000-07:00

Look over your shoulder, Dhani, because the rest of the league is gaining on you but quick. Despite the death of Chris Henry, the season-ending injury to Antwan Odom and Shayne Graham's three consecutive missed field goals on Wild Card weekend, the Cincinnati Bengals were extraordinarily lucky last year. They went 6-0 in their division, including pulling out fourth quarter magic against the Steelers and an overtime thriller in Cleveland. No one who narrowly defeats the Browns and then loses to the Raiders can be all that good. So as we come into the group of teams that have a shot at the playoffs, I'm going to say last year's surprise team is not surprising anyone this time around. A regression to the mean is about to occur.

There's no question the Bengals were the worst team in the playoffs last year - they were barely mediocre after Thanksgiving. We could blame the turmoil surrounding the team, or we could take a closer look at the roster. Chad Ochocinco is great, but is he elite? Dhani Jones is serviceable, but he's a shadow of Ray Lewis or Gary Brackett. Carson Palmer maybe no more than Vinny Testaverde, a guy who can get you there but not make jaw-dropping plays. Does anyone think Cedric Benson is going to repeat that performance?The way the media covers the Bengals might make you believe their off the field issues have prevented a great team from making a Super Bowl run. Another way to look at it is that last year represented this team's upper threshold.

Marvin Lewis is one of the many coaches in the NFL whose continued employment baffles me. Two years ago, every press conference he gave seemed like his last, then miraculously, he failed to be fired. Sure, the Bengals went 10-6 in the AFC North last year, but so did the Browns in 2007 - the record is hollow without a playoff win.

The 2009 Bengals may have let a lot of people off the hook, from Lewis to ownership to the players. Now the front office feels its one or two pieces away, adding another big play threat in Antonio Bryant. Is another loud-talking receiver the biggest need in Cincinnati? Bengals fans are cautiously optimistic, but this team hasn't proven anything yet. With Troy Polamalu back and a brutal first place schedule, disappointment is the only certainty in the Queen City.

#20: The Wrong Man

2010-07-06T00:23:00.000-07:00

There is perhaps no single fanbase as contemptible as that of the Philadelphia Eagles. They've thrown rocks at Eli Manning. They cheered when Michael Irvin suffered a career-ending neck injury. Yet somehow, one can't help but pity them for undergoing the turmoil that has plagued the always-good-but-rarely-great Eagles over the past decade. One on side, a coach who might be the worst game manager in the league, but with an almost unmatched eye for talent. And on the other, a born leader at quarterback with maddening inconsistency and an inability to stay on the field for a whole season. Together, they won more games in the 00s as a QB-coach duo than anyone besides Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. And now one of them is gone.

There are myriad similarities between the Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre storylines. Both are elite quarterbacks with a few obvious flaws. Both were ousted for QBs drafted year in advance of their departure. Both left promising teams with rising young stars, players the organizations wanted to grow along with the quarterback of the future, rather than the past. And while the Packers and Aaron Rodgers have almost regained the position they held when Favre was leading them to the NFC Championship in 2007, it did not happen in the first year. While McNabb may not have been the beloved figure Favre was, it's hard to believe that Kolb will match the 4,000 yard season Rodgers had in his first full campaign.

Defensively, the Eagles will be a tough customer. Joselio Hanson made tremendous leaps last year, locking down the corner position opposite the streaky Asante Samuel. Brandon Graham joins Trent Cole in what was an already fearsome pass-rush. But that's all old news. Will the expulsion of the team's most veteran leader make Andy Reid better in late-game situations? Will it make LeSean McCoy an explosive short yardage back? Has DeSean Jackson's explosive season and piddling contract made him the second coming of T.O.?

Ultimately, the Eagles have not changed a great deal in this offseason. They're still essentially the early 90s Knicks or the mid 90s Atlanta Braves. They have a formula that allows them to win, but not climb the mountaintop. Without an experienced field general, and in football's most treacherous division (which still includes the spurned McNabb) expect them to slip.

#21: Boats Against the Current

2010-07-01T17:44:00.000-07:00

Two years ago, Andrea Kremer kicked off the telecast of Super Bowl XLIII with the unforgettable words, "F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote 'there are no second acts in American lives; not so for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner". It had been a wild ride for the team from the desert - besides the high-powered offense, American had learned to love Larry Fitzgerald's smile, the toughness of Adrian Wilson, and the defensive lineman known to friends as "Fart Box". It was a great story, the first and only in the history of the Phoenix redbirds. Well, God's favorite aside, Zelda's hubby was right. The party's over.

Warner has retired. Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle have moved on to greener pastures. Anquan Boldin, maligned and overlooked since Brett Favre was a Packer, was finally traded to a contender, like he always wanted. Super bowl appearance and consecutive division titles aside, the Cardinals are a team moving backwards. Now they turn to a power running game featuring the injury and fumble prone Beanie Well,s behind the decaying corpse of Alan Faneca. Oh this is getting depressing; let's all enjoy some Scary Larry highlights:

The obvious issue in Arizona isn't whether their defense is worse (it is) or whether they'll be able to establish the run (even odds); the biggest question lies at the most important position. Matt Leinart is taking over a promising offense, much like division rival San Francisco, but there's one thing Alex Smith has the USC movie star doesn't; the faith of his coach. Leinart rode the pine for most of 3 seasons while Warner built this team into a contender, and now he has to wear the big boy pants. Flirtations with Marc Bulger and the signing of Derek Anderson should tell you how comfortable the Cards feel.

They might not be terrible; Ken Wisenhunt is a legitimately good, if not great coach, and enough players still know how to win. However, the personnel has taken a major turn south, while divisional foes Seattle and San Fran have gotten stronger. A tough schedule should put them in a hole early, and Anderson on the field, which can only lead to disaster. When you get to the mountaintop, you have to plant the flag. 7-9

#22: The Getaway

2010-06-12T03:44:00.000-07:00

The biggest football story this week is not out of the pro game. And even though the big six system is about to change as we know it, possibly obliterating the Big 12 forever, conference expansion was not the top story on Sportscenter yesterday. Like The U two decades earlier, the dynasty that was USC has been brought to its knees by a recruitment scandal, centering on New Orleans Sains running back Reggie Bush. Oh, and his head coach with the Hollywood haircut and possible live-in graduate school girlfriend, Pete Carroll.

Only Carroll isn’t taking the blame. He’s getting ready for his third go-round as an NFL coach. A failure with the Jets and mediocrity with the Bledsoe-in-his-prime Patriots, the silver fox will now try to resurrect the Seabags for whatever is left in Matt Hasselbeck’s tank. The general buzz around Seattle has gone something like this: “it’s the NFC West, so why not?” Carroll has escaped the NCAA posse, is getting paid more than ever before, and even inherits a team with a proven leader at QB. Ain’t life grand?

They drafted very well – two highly rated players in Russell Okung and Earl Thomas fell to them, allowing them to fill serious needs without trading picks away. However, the most talked about move was the trade for Charlie Whitehurst, in which they dropped 20 places in the second round to acquire a guy who’s never thrown a pass in the regular season. With Hasselbeck on mid-oughts Donovan McNabb injury watch, do we really expect Whitehurst to spend another full season on the sidelines? He’ll be leading an offense that features no dominant wideout, two scatbacks (one is Leon Washington coming off a gruesome broken leg) and a so-so offensive line. TE John Carlson is a sure thing; is anyone else?

Defensively is where Carroll can have the most impact and keep games competitive. USC has produced some great linebackers in recent years, and now Carroll inherits Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill and Lofa Tatupu. With Thomas playing physical over the top, I expect this to be one of the most improved units in the league. Think 2009 Bengals. The Seahawks might get more hard-nosed this year, but with Ken Wisenhunt and Mike Singletary around, the pretty boy will have to take his lumps.

#23: Of Farms Sold and Bought

2010-06-08T10:53:00.000-07:00

Timing is everything. Since the merger, the Chicago Bears have never had an elite quarterback, or even one who could instill fear in a defense from time to time. They relied on shrewd coaches, the weather and hostile crowd of Soldier, above average defense, and a hard-nosed running attack. They ignored the game's most important position for so long, they made the Super Bowl 4 years ago with Rex Grossman at the helm. The worst QB to ever suit up as a started in the big game? I will not use this opportunity to make fun of Chris Chandler.

So after that washout, and two beguiling seasons of Kyle Orton, GM Jerry Angelo put it all his chips on double zero, trading a significant portion of Chicago's future for the disgruntled Jay Cutler. After a disastrous season in which Cutler looked more like a promising rookie than a recent Pro-Bowler, Angelo and besieged coach have had to break the glass on every NFL team's offensive emergency scenario: install Mike Martz as offensive co-ordinator and hope for the best.

Martz is the NFL's equivalent of an actor being called a genius - he hasn't done anything to deserve it. Sure, armed with four first ballot hall-of-famers (Faulk, Pace, Bruce and Warner) he guided the '99 Rams to the mountaintop, but does anyone really expect him to turn the Bears around with two guys named Devin (AROMOSHODU!)? The Greatest Show on Turf (remember, that was 11 years ago, Martz has enjoyed about as much success as Herm Edwards the past decade) was based on snap and throw. Martz offense is oil to Jay Cutler's fertile Gulf of Mexico style of play; the former Bronco is all scramble and play extension, looking for the big play deep. This is saying nothing about the decaying offensive line that will have to stay healthy enough to chase down the DB returning Cutler's 25 interceptions.

The offense may be the headline, but the real problem with the Bears is on the other side of the ball, where Mike Brown, Nathan Vasher and Adewale Ogunleye have departed, leaving Brian Urlacher, Julius Peppers and a whole heap of old or unproven players. The lack of draft picks has ravaged what was once a proud unit. With Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and the revamped Lions offense, the Bears are going to have to score points in bunches to keep up in the division. Expect a rebuilding process to begin in earnest next year.

#24: Assembly Line

2010-05-17T13:09:00.000-07:00

Two years ago, as John McCain and the economy began to collapse, there was no darker place in America than Detroit; and to top it all off, as Mitch Albom eloquently wrote, the people of the Motor City had to watch the Lions. Helmed by a nightmare combination of Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper and Dan Orlovsky (who started the most games of the 3), Rod Marinelli's group was the laughing stock of the league, only hanging close in 3 of the 16 games, eventually leaving the 2008 calender year behind without a victory. However, every cloud has a silver lining; and with the Lions in a torrential downpour, a heap of good fortune was about to come their way.

First, Matt Millen was fired. Then, surprise surprise, they had their first impact draft in a decade, grabbing their franchise QB (Matthew Stafford), an impact offensive player (Brandon Pettigrew) and a future all-pro safety (Louis Delmas) in the first 33 picks. Sure they only had 2 wins, but Jim Schwartz doesn't care about right now; this is all about the future. Following 2009 free agency, in which they snagged WR Nate Burleson and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Lions were no longer a joke. They weren't a great team, but they were getting there.

At the end of the 2009 NCAA football season, no one looked more dominant or NFL ready than Ndamukong Suh. Schwartz, a defensive line coach at heart, was very lucky about the 2010 draft order; the past few years have been very cruel to the Rams with respect to D-line, otherwise the Lions might not have landed their man. With Suh installed in Albert Haynesworth's old spot in the scheme, Schwartz might just have a fearsome defense again this year; or at least one that has to be accounted for.

Culture has changed a lot consider this team still lost 14 games last year. Stafford led the boys in blue and silver to a dramatic win over the Browns, proving his toughness and superiority to Brady Quinn. I actually debated whether to put the Lions or the Bears in the 24 spot on these Power Rankings. They have young weapons on offense (including perhaps the best WR in the game when healthy, Calvin Johnson) and an emerging identiy on defense. They might not win the Super Bowl, or even be in it, for another 5 years, but the Detroit Lions are officially mediocre. They've come a long way.

#25: Deconstructing Shanny

2010-05-07T09:20:00.000-07:00

A few years ago, it didn't matter who ran the ball in Denver; whoever it was, they gained a thousand yards. It didn't matter if the QB was Jake Plummer - the team was competitive. It didn't matter who was on the defense - they had shutdown corner Champ Bailey, and everyone else was expendable. The Broncos were competitive year-in, year-out because Mike Shanahan was (and is) a Hall of Fame bound coach. In 14 years with the franchise, Shanny took the Bucking Ones to the playoffs seven times (amazingly, only three of those were with John Elway). One bizarre 2008 collapse later, he was out on his keister.

Oh, so was pro-bowler Jay Cutler. It was all part of the masterplan of Josh McDaniels, former Patriot wunderkind, who decided a proven QB was a luxury he could do without. He installed his passing-for-kindergardeners offense with Kyle Orton, and promptly has everyone believing in his Wild Horses, lead by the ancient Brian Dawkins and the all-too-green Knowshon Moreno. Well, the smoke blew away, and the mirrors broke: the Broncos slid down the stretch with a pair of 4-game losing streaks and finished up at the tidy (and all too familiar) record of 8-8.

But don't worry, Bronco fans, this makeover isn't finished. This offseason, McDaniels tossed the last two proven weapons on the offense when he dealt Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler. He also brought in some more over the hill defensive help in the form of Jamaal Williams and Jarvis Green. So who's the future? Look no further than Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas. If you look up "system player" in an NFL Draft encyclopedia, these are the first two names.

This isn't question of whether Tebow's delivery will ever be NFL ready (it probably doesn't matter). Even if Tebow was a top prospect on whom every analyst agreed, he would be a gamble in comparison the strong-armed Cutler. On the other hand, Brandon Marshall is as good a receiver as there is - there is zero chance Thomas ever reached that level. This is essentially a statement about character, not unlike the one Mike Singletary made when he took over in San Francisco. The only difference is, the 49ers were a long way away. Denver had a young core, and now they are back at square one.

Don't expect the Horses to be back anytime soon. They're old in all the wrong places, they don't have a QB, and glorified return man Eddie Royal is their most proven offensive player. 6-10 sounds about right.

Quick Hits: 10 Mid-Round Picks Who Will Make Noise

2010-04-27T09:24:00.000-07:00

After my exhaustive treatment of Thursday night's action, I thought we could sort of speed read the rest of the draft. Right off the bat, I thought the Ravens, 49ers and Lions were the clear winners (with the Seahawks just behind), and I've already said I think Jacksonville made out the worst. Some players teams will soon regret passing on:

Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Chiefs (Round 2, Pick 36): The pint-sized jack of all trades is like a miniature Percy Harvin (who is already pretty small). The Chiefs are thinking outside the box on this one, listing McCluster as a wide receiver from the outset. Backfeild, split-out, wildcat - the Ole Miss product's blazing speed and imcomparable cutting ability make him a scoring threat from anywhere on the field. Matt Cassel, dumpoff extraordinaire, must be appreciative.

Terrence Cody, NT, Ravens (Round 2, Pick 57): Mt. Cody was this year's Andre Smith, a fat man showing his fat when the scouts got a look at him. His weight, along with the depth of this year's DT class, cause him to tumble to the bottom of the second round, where the Ravens picked up Haloti Ngata's backup on the cheap. The Ravens are a much more versatile front with this move, which allows them to shift from 3-4 to 4-3 without losing any of their size or run-stopping ability.

Ben Tate, RB, Texans (Round 2, Pick 58): At 5'11, 218 pounds, Tate is the physical, every-down back the Texans have needed for about five years. He should give Steve Slaton some much needed rest, and improve the balance of this already potent offense.

Brandon Spikes, LB, Patriots (Round 2, 62): The heart and soul of the Gator defense ran 5 seconds flat in the 40 - as red flags go, that one is oxblood. Let's face it though - Spikes is a powerful linebacker with tremendous instincts, and Belichick's defense has never been built on speed. If Spikes and Mayo can play the inside for the next 10 years, the Pats may be able to do something in Tom Brady's declining years.

Navarro Bowman, LB, 49ers (Round 3, Pick 91): A four-year starter at Penn State (that's pigskinese for "sure thing", Bowman took a tumble due to injury concerns and some off the field issues. If the training staff can keep him on the fiel, Mike Singletary should be able to add another dangerous weapon to his stout defense. Two years ago, analysts saw Bowman as the top linebacker. He chose to come back for his senior season - he may not get the big bucks up front, but he's landed in the perfect situation.

Mardy Gilyard, WR, Rams (Round 4, Pick 99): A dynamic weapon on deep passes as well as in the return game, Gilyard was a one-year wonder on Brian Kelly's nearly undefeated Cincinatti Bearcats. He could be a terrible route-runner, or he could be this year's Johnny Knox. In his brief stint in college Gilyard showed leadership ability and toughness, especially in the regular season finally in snowy Pittsburgh. Could be a valuable weapon for Bradford.

Everson Griffin, DE, Vikings (Round 4, Pick 100): USC produces defensive studs. So why did the top lineman from Pete Carroll's program last so long? Some scouts don't think Griffin is all that gifted, but rather that he benefited from the system. Well, Leslie Frazier knows pass rush, and with Ray Edwards getting up in years, Griffin should see the field. Playing Cash to Jared Allen's Tango, he should see a lot of favorable protections. Not a position of need, but a quality pickup for a championship calibur team.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots (Round 4, Pick 113): At times, he enjoyed the status of Tim Tebow's favorite target, which means he learned to rack up yards-after-catch on underthrown balls. Another victim of off-the-field issues, Hernandez failed a drug test before the combine, which scared many teams away. Before that came out, there was some debate as to who was better, Hernandez or Jermaine Gresham, who went 21st to the Bengals. The Pats improve mightily at a position of need.

Mike Kafka, QB, Eagles (Round 4, Pick 122): If Kafka had gone to USC or Ohio State, he might have been considered a top 3 QB in this draft. He had the strongest arm in the Big 10 last year (at Northwestern), and boasts above average mobility. The negatives? He only started one full year, and he wasn't reliable in the 4th quarter. Physically, this kid has it, and he's a perfect fit for Andy Reid's modified West Coast offense. If Kevin Kolb doesn't work out, this is as good a backup plan as any.

Greg Hardy, DE, Panthers (Round 6, Pick 175): This draft was pretty light on 4-3 defensive ends, but Hardy was one of the best. Or at least, he was three years ago, before a rash of injuries took him out of the Ole Miss starting lineup. His 23 sacks over the past three seasons may not be all that impressive, but Hardy has the explosiveness off the line to be the next Julius Peppers. I'm sure that's what Carolina was thinking.

#26: Alualu!

2010-04-26T18:17:00.000-07:00

Bills, Rams, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders. Before the draft, I was able to rattle those teams off at the bottom of the power rankings. They had a long way to go, and they still do (despite the good weekends by Tampa and Oakland, I'm going to wait to crown their asses). So who's next? Of the 26 remaining teams, what midlevel player or fringe contender got worse rather than better during the league selection meeting? I realize the Seahawks and Lions still have a great deal to prove, but Jacksonville, you're up.

Look, Alvin Peerman, it's everything, slipping away! Since the Jaguars tossed QB-of-the-future Byron Leftwich onto the scrap heap, they've had one winning season (capped by a memorable playoff win in Pittsburgh). Other than that, they've lost Fred Taylor. Marcus Stroud. John Henderson. They've changed uniforms more than once. They talked about getting Tim Tebow, then decided against it. To crown this whole mess, they just made the worst first round pick of the draft: defensive tackle Tyson Alualu. As we saw with the Redskins last year, it only takes a few missteps in a good division to suddenly be 4-12. The Jaguars have certainly had their missteps.

All last year, I called for Jack Del Rio's head on a platter. Yet, the jungle cats got off to a respectable start (they lost 5 of their last 6). In New York, or Washington, or even Green Bay, this might have been a firing offense. But Leather Jacket Jack just keeps on trucking. Known for his defense, he hasn't had his squad in the top half of the league since 2007. Owner Wayne Weaver does not seem too worried. Onw is as good a time as any to insert this video clip:

All that passion is gone now, replaced by Alualu, a rookie with more scrutiny than you can shake an empty stadium at. Oh right, no one is coming to games anymore, despite Jacksonville being the most populous city in Florida (no, really it is). Everyone knows Maurice Jones Drew, but can you name anybody else on their offense? Mike Sims-Walker was amusing for fantasy purposes, but he's hardly a #1 receiver. And David Garrard? He's the Jason Campbell of the AFC (Jason Campbell is in the AFC now? I feel dirty).

There's nothing to be too excited about in North Florida. The team will soon be gone, and maybe so will ownership and most of the players. As they run out the string, squeaking out losses to Indianapolis, one can't help but feel bad for everyone involved. We'll always have that one magical scramble by Garrard in 2006. But that's all it was; a disorganized bit of luck by a man who chose his spectacular legs over his unspectacular arm.

The Raiders act Rationally. Plus, a Dozen Other Surprises from the First Round

2010-04-23T14:13:00.000-07:00

The NFL draft doesn't get more boring than the first 7 picks last night. From St. Louis to Cleveland, there wasn't a single surprise, debate, or agog Kiper to be found. Things went all too according to plan, with only the switch of tackles Russell Okung and Trent Williams upsetting anyone's first round mock. I didn't even do one this year, main because banging out those first seven paragraphs would have felt so lifeless. However, as soon as the Browns picked Joe Haden and the Raiders went on the clock, this year's draft became the riveting, prime-time event it was advertised as.

Every football fan loves Al Davis' annual stupid decision - but this year he didn't put a smile on anybody's face. Instead of taking the best player available (probably Dez Bryant), the Raiders made a smart decision - Rolando Maclain, ILB. Tom Jackon put it beautifully: "they won't be looking for a middle linebacker anytime soon." In other words, Oakland made a safe pick. Indeed, with an uncapped year and a lockout looming, teams were by and large smart, many traded down, and no one took unnecessary risks (except one team, see below). Many of the big names remain on the board (Jimmy Clausen, Sergie Kindle, Terence Cody), which should make for a fascinating round two. A look at the winners, movers, losers and shakers. Not going to cover every team or give out grades - remember, it was only 32 picks.

One Giant Leap - Big Winners

San Francisco - Two picks in the teens, both spent on offensive lineman. Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati just made the 49ers running game terrifying - consider how good Frank Gore has been with substandard blocking. The Niners who many, including myself, see as the crown princes of the NFC West, just became a smash mouth football team.

Detroit - Ndamukong Suh was the best player in the draft - everyone agreed on this. Put him into Jim Schwartz' brilliantly conceived defensive line scheme, that's a can't-miss pick. They added another weapon with Jahvid Best late, which will take a great deal of pressure off of Kevin Smith. You're now looking at a 7-win team, and in a few years, a legit contender.

Sizzle with a Chance of Steak - Decent Risks

Buffalo - C.J. Spiller was the most explosive player in college football last year. However, the Bills are rebuilding a 3-4 defense already have two capable backs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. If they were trying to send a message to the bad-boy Lynch, the 9th overall pick is not the ideal setting for a lesson on morals. However, with decent blocking, Spiller could be a star. Of course, the Bills don't have blocking.

Dallas - I love Dez Bryant; I'm a Jets fan, I'm programmed to covet elite wide receiver talent in the first round. All the "character" issues raised about this kid are moot - he did not do anything illegal, and he was always a great teammate. Adding him at 24 is a minimal risk for a Cowboy team that is relatively complete on both sides of the ball. If Bryant can contribute even a marginal amount this year, and make plays in the return game, this was a steal.

Right Place, Right Time - Great Value

Arizona - Dan Williams was considered the only elite nose tackle prospect in the draft. Plenty of teams run the 3-4, including the San Diego Chargers, who just lost future Hall-of-Famer Jamal Williams, but none liked the Tennessee product enough to pay him big dollars. He fell to the end of the first round, where Ken Wisenhunt and company were waiting with open arms. Put him on a line with Darnell Dockett, it's gonna be mighty hard to run in the desert.

Tennessee - They lost Kyle Vanden Bosch in free agency, but look, there's another Kyle Vanden Bosch, and it won't even cost you too much! Morgan is not spectacular, but he's not a risk either. With Jeff Fisher's guidance, he should be more than adequate. And they get about ten years younger at the position.

Green Bay - What separates the Packers from the Vikings? Quality offensive linemen. Bulaga tumbled to the right spot (some had him going as high as 8th to the Raiders), and the Pack narrowed the gap a great deal. Plus he "looks like a Packer" - aka, white guy with a big neck.

Safety First - Good Moves

New York (A) - A lot of people had Kyle Wilson as the 2nd best corner in the draft - he ended up going fourth to a team with a stacked secondary. Though the Jets had more pressing needs, Wilson may have been the best player available (Minnesota's disappointment in not snagging him verifies his worth), and for once, Mike Tannenbaum decided not to shift around. Wilson will be fine in the short term, and hopefully he can improve for the day when Antonio Cromartie is in prison.

Cincinnati - Okay, maybe this was a great move. If Jermaine Gresham ever rediscovers his 2008 form, the Bengals will be a terrifying offense. The Bengals have needed a pass-catching tight end since before Carson Palmer was at USC, and now that the rest of the team seems in order, they could finally give the position the attention it deserved.

Pittsburgh - Despite their holes at receiver, Pittsburgh's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Using the strategy the Jets employed in 2006, the Steelers began the rebuilding process from the middle, with center/guard Maurkice Pouncey. After Iupati, the Florida product was the best bruiser in the draft. Maybe he can bring back some of the toughness to the Pittsburgh front.

Question Marks

Jacksonville - Besides Denver (whom I'll discuss at length - LENGTH - in a moment) no one had more people scratching their heads than the Jaguars, stuck in the no man's land of the tenth pick. They took Tyson Aluala, who may or may not have been available in the second round. With Marcus Stroud long gone, and John Henderson on his way out, a great deal of pressure and scrutiny is suddenly focused on Aluala, a complete unknown just 24 hours ago.

New York (N) - Jason Pierre-Paul has played in less than 10 full games of high-level college football. He has long arms, and weighs 270 soaking wet. A lot of upside? Maybe. Internet sensation? Definitely. JPP is the biggest risk in round 1, especially given the Giants already strained relationship with Osi Umenyiora. They missed out on McClain, who probably would have helped their huge need at inside linebacker, and then panicked by taking the trendy player. Maybe he's Jevon Kearse, maybe he isn't, but when ESPN cut to his watching party and Drew Rosenhaus was not 6 inches from the draftee's side, I got chills. Not good chills. Also, Football Outsiders hates him.

That pretty much covers how I felt about the buzzworthy moves of the first round. Oh yeah....

Long Day's Journey into Denver

Remember that fist-pumping moron? Well, he's at it again, Josh McDaniels took the #11 pick and traded 4 times in the first round to select two players. The first, Demaryius Thomas isn't a bad pick, although it will certainly take a couple years til the triple option receiver has his pro-style legs under him. Thomas is coming off a broken foot, and at 22 with Dez Bryant still on the board, his selection certainly raised some eyebrows. He won't be Brandon Marshall for a while, if ever.

The head scratching had not even begun yet. The best situation for Tim Tebow's eventual success would be for him to go a team with a franchise QB, and not see the field for a few years. A solid playoff team that would never clamor for the very unfinished go-getter to get playing time before he was ready. Instead, McDaniels has just thrown Tim Tebow into a QB meeting room with perennially injured Kyle Orton and the milquetoast "Brody Qualls". When Kyle-Style gets his ankle stepped on, who do you think the fans are going to want? Furthermore, who the hell is Tebow going to throw it to?

Big Ben Roethlisberger has created a new climate in the NFL - in theory. One where character is important. Well, the Broncos have all the character you could ask for (and ROBERT AYRES). They do not, however, have an elite QB or receiver anymore. They will have to work for it.

Or they'll trade another 15 times today and make some shrewd selections. See you in round two.

2010 NFL Draft Live Blog

2010-04-22T18:24:00.000-07:00

Check out the action at gungalagunga.tumblr.com

#27: And Hell Followed With Him

2010-04-22T09:31:00.000-07:00

Bad teams love the Raiders, because even though Oakland has not been the worst team in the league for 4 seasons, they symbolize all the wrong ways to run a football team. The Raiders are stuck in the 70s in more than one way - they play an ancient, unchanged form of man defense mandated from above by Al Davis. They beat good teams, and get depantsed by bad ones. They draft workout warriors by rule, focusing on speed and size over in-game performance. Losing to the Raiders is a special type of shame - just ask the Steelers, who lost out on a playoff bid in large part to the pluck of Bruce Gradkowski.

Therefore, it's strange to say that the Raiders are nowhere near the bottom of the league. Much of the focus over the past two years has been on the utter failure of Jamarcus Russell to act like an adult professional athlete. However, remove Russell, and the silver and black are an average team. An average team run by a wife-beating lunatic; Tom Cable, formerly head coach at the University of Idaho, is entering his third year as the top man in Oakland. Expunged criminal record? Possibly. Less than 5 years NFL coaching experience? Certainly. However, when your organization is owned and run by a talking skeleton, not many men (besides Steve Mariucci) are willing to take the job.

Al Davis and his "commitment to excellence" are the biggest problem with the Oakland Raiders - and I'm not breaking any news by saying this. Everyone, from Adam Shefter to Nnamdi Asomugha, knows that Al Davis is completely insane. Nnamdi signed a record contract for a defensive back, basically a huge bribe to keep him in a Raiders uniform. Oakland isn't like other jobs in the NFL; players want to play for the Rams or Lions becasue, hell, it's a team in the league. The Raiders are like a prison sentence on Devil's Island - escape is impossible. Players get that thousand mile stare - Richard Seymour crossed Bill Belichick, and now he'll be franchised until his effective days are long past.

What can the Raiders do? My suggestion is trade for Ben Roethlisberger, but quick. They haven't shown tremendouse acumen for making strong draft-day decisions, so might as well piggyback on someone else's. And don't let Russell start another game.

That's going to do it until the draft for the Power Rankings. As easy as it is to point to the 5 or 6 worst teams in the NFL, the next few positions are quite tricky. We'll start in on the Jacksonvilles and Seattles once the dust has settled.

Press ENTER to look up in Wiktionary or CTRL+ENTER to look up in Wikipedia

Future is Now

2010-04-19T12:41:00.000-07:00

There is nothing as risky, exciting and organizationally transformative as the drafting of a quarterback in the 1st round. No matter their personality or skill level, they become the face of the organization; whether on draft day, or shortly thereafter. Quarterbacks get more money than other players taken at the same spot in the draft; no one is all that interested in when a defensive end will get his first start, no matter how highly touted. No matter how many other great decisions the Colts made over the years (Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders), their success will always be linked back to one player: Peyton Manning.

There is always the debate in the draft of picking between team need and best available player. With QB, that logic tends to fly right out the window; it's rare for a desperate team to bide their time waiting for the right signal-caller. A couple years ago, the Dolphins passed up Matt Ryan for the much safer Jake Long, opting to groom second-rounder Chad Henne without the pressure of a big contract (the Dolphins have made a significant turn-around since that draft, winning 18 of their past 32 games; the Falcons, who snagged Ryan, have won 20). That same year, the Ravens maneuvered themselves with two trades to take Joe Flacco at the right price. Baltimore knew what they wanted, and knew what it should cost. With the 2010 draft later this week, knowing what you want and the right price are important. Just because your team is starved for a capable passe does not mean the right one is available this year.

Each QB in this class has major problems - with Sam Bradford and his twice-repaired shoulder almost certainly coming off the board first overall, let's take a look at the rest of the top five, which teams should seize their opportunity, and which should stay away.

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: Everyone knows Jimmy Clausen is the second best QB in this draft, but no one has any ideas where he'll land. At the 7th pick to Cleveland? Or will he suffer like the Irish QB before him, Brady Quinn, slipping into the 20s? Clausen knows a pro-style offense and has had many late game heroics (Charlie Weiss' horrible defense certainly did its part in contributing to this kid's highlight reel). The only knock on Clausen is his hand size (9" might be difficult in cold weather), so why can't we project him to go to the Browns? Well, Cleveland got Seneca Wallace, the Seahawks got Charlie Whitehurst, and Mike Shanahan hitched his wagon to an aging injury machine all to avoid this kid. Something is rotten. Where he'd fit: Clausen has the attitude and California roots to turn around the Raiders, but I doubt they spend more top 10 money on a QB. San Francisco has also been rumored. Who should stay away: The Bills should temper their fans' expectations this year - drafting a kid who's been scouted since he was 14 is not the best way to do that.

Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan: Yeah, I'm gonna talk about Lefevour 2nd, because somebody should. At 6'4, 238 pounds, he might be the next Ben Roethlisberger (on the field...on the field only). He ran the spread, and scrambled for yards almost as much as he threw, and put up double digit rushing TDs in 3 of his 4 years. Sound familiar? LeFevour is Tim Tebow without a blue-and-orange jersey, only with better accuracy. Though scouts have had a lot of misgivings about his arm strength (Mel Kiper has called him a big Chad Pennington), his leadership and winning percentage are unparalleled. Where he'd fit: Denver and Kansas City are both running versions of the system that made big-bodied, average-armed Tom Brady a star. LeFevour could come in and learn a lot as a backup. Accuracy and mobility are also highly valued in Brad Childress' take on the West Coast offense. Who should stay away: Anyone with a "big play" offense (Philly, Chicago, Oakland); LeFevour can grow into a phenomenal rhythm and possession QB, but he doesn't hit homeruns.

Tim Tebow, Florida: He's a leader. He's a worker. He's changed his throwing motion. He'll sell all the jerseys you can embroider. The question with Tim Tebow is: do you really want him taking every snap for your team for 16 games? Tebow played in Gainesville, at arguably the most talented college program in the nation, where every receiver ran a 4.4 or better, and three of his O-linemen are going to the league. Could he turn around a team the way Peyton Manning or Drew Brees did? Furthermore, do you want to be the GM who mortgages the future on this guy, only to see the ball drop to his waist in the first pressure situation, plucked like so many ripe apples by Jared Allen? Where he'd fit: Again, Denver has ideal the system for unfinished products - of course, they just took one on in Brady Quinn. New England would take the pressure off Tebow, and afford him the best learning conditions. Who should stay away: Jacksonville will start Tebow in the 2010 season if they take him - this will destroy both of them. Actually, let's hope this happens.

Colt McCoy, Texas: Colt McCoy has a weak arm and a high-pitched voice. He will never amount to anything in the NFL and if he had gone to Harvard he'd probably be well on his way to Wall Street.

To summarize, no one is a sure thing, not to the extent Matthew Stafford or Matt Ryan was. Teams need to be extra careful, especially when the uncapped year will drive rookie contracts to absurd new heights.

#28: Foxborough West

2010-04-06T07:22:00.000-07:00

It's easy to figure out who are the worst teams; usually they're trying a formula doomed for failure. Rounding out the group of the hopeless are the Kansas City Chiefs, hoping to somehow duplicate the out-of-left-field success of the 2001 Patriots. Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weiss and a QB from the bottom of the barrel - the Chiefs have a serious lack of creativity, and once things started south in 2009, there was zero chance of them turning things around. Like their baseball brethren the Royals, the pure suckery of the red and gold is overshadowed in the national media - playing in the same division as the bafflingly awful Raiders does not help. Trust me, this team is the pits.

Last year, former Pats GM Scott Pioli traded a second rounder for Mike Vrabel and 2008 backup standout Matt Cassel. Well, that didn't work out. So why not some more once great Patriot personnel? Like Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel? Pioli has the whole gang back together, except for the head coach. Todd Haley is still running the show, despite all of Belichick's circling vultures. Despite the pressure, he seems to be keeping his cool. Haley seems to be the next incarnation of Scott Linehan - an offensive wunderkind in way, way over his head. Maybe after he gets fired a few more time he can become Norv Turner.

The Patriots won by finding a QB late in the draft, and surrounding him with castoffs of other teams, trading down to get more picks, and never valuing one member of the organization above all else. What the Chiefs don't seem to understand is this is not a proven formula; it's more the exception to the rule. Matt Cassel couldn't get on the field ahead of Matt Leinart - he probably doesn't have the ingredients to win 10 or 11 games at the next level, especially when he best receiver is Dwayne Bowe.

To make matters worse, the Chiefs find themselves at a schematic crossroads (not unlike the #32 Bills). Moving to a 3-4 defense and away from Herm Edwards' Tampa 2 has rendered picks like Derrick Johnson and Glenn Dorsey worthless (even in the old system, they were questionable). Adding an exorbitantly priced 3-technique defensive end in Tyson Jackson with their #3 pick last year certainly didn't make this team any sexier. Straight up: the Chiefs have zero impact players on defense.

The same cannot be said of the offense, where the once-insane-looking Jared Allen trade (not Pioli's doing) has netted Jamaal Charles, one of the most exciting running backs in the league. Part Darren Sproles, part Felix Jones, Charles has had some big games when his line blocks halfway decently. On a team with a line, he might lead the league in yardage. Unfortunately, Haley was never big on running the ball, dating back to his Arizona days. If the Chiefs are going to contend, Charles needs to take the team on his shoulders. If not, they can lose 13 games and draft another D-lineman.

BREAKING: McNabb to Redskins

2010-04-04T17:49:00.000-07:00

A few years ago, when the Packers were facing the Brett Favre situation, the last thing they wanted was the Ol' Pickasaurus coming back to Lambeau to rub their noses in it. They didn't just trade Favre out of the division, they pushed him out the conference, to a team they wouldn't face at home until 2013. Apparently, these concerns don't bother the Philadelphia Eagles, who dished the face of their franchise for the past decade to the Washington Redskins. After 10 years of abuse from fans, the media and his teammates, McNabb will head 2 hours down I-95 for a second rounder and a conditional pick in 2011.

For the Eagles, a new day has finally begun (one in which Michael Vick is oddly one play from being the starter). Philly fans will have to be patient, because as we saw when Rodgers took over for Favre, this isn't going to be an overnight process. Kevin Kolb looked good in two starts last year, but the same can be said about Matt Cassel and Rob Johnson before him. Andy Reid just signed a new contract; if the Eagles fail to make it to .500, I predict owner Jeff Lurie tears it up. Once McNabb, Westbrook and Dawkins are gone, it may just be time to start over.

As for the 'Skins, we all knew Jason Campbell wasn't the long-term solution. McNabb will play with poise and leadership JC can only dream of - he should have Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly looking promising in no time. Shanahan has made a big splash. The real effect of this trade will be felt on April 22nd, when Washington will no longer have to look QB with the 4th pick. If Bradford goes first, and the DTs go next, top ranked LT Russell Okung could fill one of the team's most pressing needs. This turnaround could happen but quick.

I, for one, thought McNabb to Oakland made a hell of a lot of sense - the Raiders have everything on offense but a QB. Run DMC and speed DHB might not have looked bad with a decent passer, and Zach Miller has all the makings of a great tight end. We're learning now that Donovan nixed any possible move to the silver and black. That's all well and good, but the 33-year-old, injury-prone starter has just gone from a perennial contender to the 'Skins, a lesser team in the same division. I don't think he'll get a new deal right away, so he's gonna have to thrive behind a battered offensive line.

In the end, McNabb and Philly will miss each other. He's won more games for them since 2000 than QB besides Manning and Brady. The Eagles and their fans are starting again. The Redskins are taking a shot on a gritty vet. The Cowboys have to be happy.

#29: Davy Jones' Locker

2010-03-31T12:54:00.000-07:00

About half of America watches the Super Bowl every year. That's why Tom Brady is an international icon; even if you don't watch football, you've seen Brady at the pinnacle of the game several times in the last decade. Even if you don't go to the movies that often, you know Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks (well, not personally). However, if you ask a man on the street who won the Super Bowl in 2003, they might scratch their head for a minute. After one of the oddest seasons in modern NFL history (MVP Rich Gannon odd), the Buccaneers dropped 48 on the Raiders to win SB XXXVII. Yeah, it happened.

Like all the teams at the bottom of the list, few names remain the same on the current Tampa squad (the ageless Ronde Barber is the only one). Just two years ago, the Bucs were 9-3 with a veteran QB in Jeff Garcia, commanded in battle by the fiery Jon Gruden. Now it's Raheem Morris, professional coach (?) and Josh Freeman, developmental first rounder. Morris' first move was to clean house of all the veteran leadership (including future HOFer Derrick Brooks, a move much maligned on this blog), and trade first round pick Gaines Adams. Not only is Morris one of the youngest coaches in the league, he's also by far the least experienced.

Yet, if Morris was the worst move the front office had made since the Super Bowl run, things might not be all bad by the big fake pirate ship. There are two ways to build a winning team - through the draft or free agency. The Bucs have selected one impact player in the first two rounds since their championship (Aqib Talib) and they currently have the lowest payroll in football. The Glazers, who also own an MLS team, seem to be spread thin financially. In other words, this is a talent poor team without any veteran talent.

So why put them at #29? Shouldn't a team that is not trying to get better be worse off? The Bucs actually have a decent O-line, and with their second round pick, they should be able to get a decent tailback (their stable of running backs goes from bad to worse to Earnest Graham). And they're guaranteed to get a premium DT if the Rams take Bradford (which they will to any degree of metaphysical certitude). Sure, they play in a tough division, but they beat the Saints in the Superdome last year (this is even easier to forget than the ring). They also took out the Packers in the creamsicle unis.

There are pieces coming to Tampa. They were forced to take Freeman 17th overall last year, but the kid showed some spunk at points once he got on the field. Throw T.O. into the mix (I'm joking, right?) and they might have something. Six wins is hardly unimaginable.

#30: Fat Guys in a Little Coat

2010-03-30T13:13:00.000-07:00

It must seem like a lifetime for Browns fans since they won the 2007 draft. And then narrowly missed the playoffs. To the rest of us, it might as well have never happened. Remember fantasy studs Jamal Lewis, Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards and Derek Anderson? Player's coach Romeo Crennel? Big free agent Donte Stallworth? Yeah, one Mangini-rific year later, none of those talented (if troubled) players is still with the franchise. Neither is QB of the future Brady Quinn; sought after in a blockbuster draft day trade with the Cowboys, "Brody Qualls" has been shipped to Denver for a meaningless 7th rounder.

Why on Earth then am I not placing them at the bottom of the totem pole? Perhaps you've heard of Jake Delhomme. No? How about Seneca Wallace? In all seriousness, the Browns won four games in a row to finish the season (and scuttle their chances of drafting a top QB); most of that was due to Rob Ryan's defense taking shape. If new team president Mike Holmgren can put together half of an offense, Josh Cribbs might be able to do the rest.

And how about Cribbs? Any discussion of the Cleveland Browns has to spend at least a paragraph on the guy; he's their best player by a long shot. His wildcat antics singlehandedly beat the Steelers last December. In their only non-boneheaded move in the past three years, the Browns brass extended his contract and put to bed the prospect of an ugly holdout. With the playmaker in the fold, Holmgren needs to find an identity on offense that makes the most of him. Signing Wallace looks like a West-Coast move, which means another learning and rebuilding year along the shores of Lake Erie.

The 64,000 dollar question in all this: why keep Eric Mangini? When Parcells took over the Dolphins, he burned the place to the ground - when the move was announced that Cleveland was bringing in The Big Show, it was assumed he would do the same. Mangini is a notoriously difficult my-way-or-the-highway kind of coach, acting like Belichick without the rings. It almost seems like the Walrus is planning on a return to coaching once this ship gets righted just a smidge. The dog pound would love that. See you in three more years.

When the Music Stopped: League Year to Date

2010-03-16T14:16:00.000-07:00

The Bears haven't been the only ones shaking things up - a roundup of the smartest and silliest moves of the offseason.

1) Old White pass rushers would like to be of service: marginalized in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense and put on ice by a torn ACL, 2009 was a gloomy year for Kampman, who recorded 38 sacks the previous 3 seasons. The high-motor leader will be a welcome addition to a Jacksonville defense that ranked last in the league in QB hits, and has had two highly-touted ends (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves) produce little to nothing in their first two seasons. If Kampman can be effective with his hand on the ground, and maybe get through to the younger players, the Jags might not falter down the stretch again. And Jack Del Rio might once again keep a job he long ago ceased to deserve. Jim Schwartz isn't worrying about his job, yet; Kyle Vanden Bosch gives the Lions the kind of veteran leadership on defense they haven't gotten in free agency for a long time (ever?). Good moves.

2) Arizona gets gutted: The past two years have been the best since the 1940s for the Cardinals franchise. However, with the retirement of Kurt Warner, and the departure of defensive studs Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle, they're back to being a team with big question marks and minimal leadership. Meanwhile, Miami just got faster and smarter up the middle, while the G-men found the perfect complement to Kenny Phillips in the defensive backfield. In an uncapped year, there's no excuse to not keep the defense together, or at least one of the two. With Warner gone, Arizona is sending out a message to its fans: we've entered a rebuilding phase.

3) Boldin escapes: One more note on the Cards - they finally got rid of their biggest ongoing headache, Anquan Boldin. Q wasn't a T.O. or Brandon Marshall - he was correct to think he wasn't getting paid enough, and finally got his wish at a fresh start and a fresh contract. The Ravens profited considerably, adding a tough team player. As an added bonus, the ironman on the other side of the field, Derrick Mason, has decided to return at age 37. With Flacco entering his 3rd year and Ray Rice finally the feature back, Baltimore may no longer have to rely on its aging defense. They might wish they got Brandon Marshall, but the Ravens are a contender now - Boldin, with a championship on his mind, only underscores that fact.

4) Cleveland reloads at QB: Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn? Garbage. Seneca Wallace and Jake Delhomme, on the other hand, now you're talking. The Browns scrapped the Romeo Crennel era once and for all by dumping DA and trading the Mighty to Denver, where he might feel comfortable in a Charlie Weiss-inspired offense. Team president Mike Holmgren has also hinted that Cleveland might draft another signal-caller. Who's starting on the banks of Lake Erie? It's still undecided. The Browns just went through three unproductive years due to indecision and too many cooks. By adding a shaky veteran and career backup, those aren't the wheels of progress beginning to turn; it's every stomach in Cleveland. Who are the top prospects in 2011?

5) The Mighty Quinn wanders on: Homophobic? Weak-armed? A divisive force in the locker room? Sure, Denver would love to have you, Brady Quinn! Remember when the Browns were declared the winners of the 2007 draft for snagging the Notre Dame standout with the 22nd overall pick? Now that the nightmare is over, Quinn has actually has a decent chance of becoming the starter (Kyle Orton is perpetualy injured) and the McDaniels system is perfect for his, ahem, finesse style.

6) Detroit and Cincinnati get #2: Antonio Bryant and Nate Burleson have shown considerable promise in their respective careers, sometimes garnering the defacto title of #1 receiver. Well, now neither has to worry about carrying the burden on his own; they'll be playing second fiddle to proven talents in Cincy and Detroit. Chad Ochocinco and Calvin Johnson have to be happy about possibly seeing single coverage this season. Both teams have mid-level offenses - with these additions, they could be quasi-elite (Houston Texans style). Detroit is growing, and beginning to make good moves. The Bengals are a little more desperate; if Carson Palmer can't make this offense dynamic, legitimate questions will be raised.

7) Resurrecting the Champs: Bernard Scott, Josh Cribbs, Jamaal Charles...they all have one thing in common; they broke the back of the Steelers on special teams last year. Pittsburgh never spends big in free agency (they usually just try to hold on to their own), but this year, they needed a change. After resigning Ryan Clark, they got backup safety Will Allen and WRs Arnaz Battle and Antwan Randle El. They might be threatening Limas Sweed on the depth chart, but their real function will be to cover kicks. If you break it down, the forgotten phase of the game was all that sunk the Steelers last season; if these small signings make a difference, they can be back on top of the AFC in no time.

8) The Jets raid the Chargers: When Shonn Greene burst through a weak Antonio Cromartie arm tackle, then mimicked LT's signature finger rollin the end-zone, effectively ending the Chargers' season, he couldn't have understood the magnitude of his actions. Now Cro and the Dane are moving to much colder environs, where the Jets are retooling for a Super Bowl run. Adding Cromartie is the impact move; his athleticism coupled with Darrelle Revis' intelligence might have just given Gang Green the most fearsome secondary in the league. Thomas Jones will surely be missed, but one more high-stakes story line is preferable to the ravenous New York media. I can't say that I totally approve of the move as a Jets fan, but with Leon Washington coming back and Greene moving into the starting role, why not give the old guy a shot?

Personality Crisis: How and Why the Chicago Bears Went Crazy in the Uncapped Year

2010-03-10T13:34:00.000-08:00

Hey, look! Jay Cutler's finally getting around to wiping off the flop sweat! Also, is he wearing one of those pre-worn Boston Red Sox hats they sell at Abercrombie and Fitch? Probably not, but that doesn't mean he didn't singlehandedly throw the Bears out of contention last year. After bargaining the present and the future on grabbing the hotheaded gunslinger from Denver, Chicago brass found themselves with few options for improving the 7-9 car wreck. Sure, we could blame some of those losses on the Brian Urlacher and Devin Hester injuries, but let's face it; the Bears weren't close, despite waxing the Vikings late in the season (AROMASHODU).

They did the one thing a struggling team is always allowed to do - spend money like a drunken sailor. Julius Peppers was the best pass-rusher available, so despite his age (30) and attitude problems, here's 90 millions dollars. Chicago knows what a disruptive edge rusher can do - Jared Allen's been eating them alive for two years. And speaking of the Vikings, they were able to get Chester Taylor pretty cheap, at once improving their team and hurting Minnesota.

I'm very skeptical of the Peppers move, but completely on board with Taylor, who will fit like a glove with the Mike Martz checkdown offense (if Jay Cutler is willing to play ball). Whether these moves work or not, change is afoot in Halas Hall. Should Chicago miss the playoffs for the 4th straight year, Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo will be shown the door (And so, too, will Julius, 20 million in his pocket). Right now, the Bears have thrown their hat in the race for most interesting possible train wreck of 2010.

#31: Going to California

2010-03-10T11:54:00.000-08:00

It's your offseason power rankings countdown! I proclaimed the Buffalo Bills will have the worst time of it in 2010, due to a talent vacuum and a third-rate coaching staff. Last year, the Bills won 6 games - as many as the St. Louis Rams have won in the past three years. Over that same span, the Lions have taken 9 contests. Their distant relationship to Kurt Warner, the ability to avoid going 0-16 thanks and the fact that no one sees games played in the NFC West has masked an irrefutable fact - the Rams are the worst team in football.

With a stadium being built in LA and the coming labor troubles, this could well be the final 16 games played on the banks of the Mississippi by the Curved Horns. They're about to be sold, which would give coach Steve Spagnuolo the option to cut and run. What do they have going for them? This stellar play by kicker Josh Brown:

That's the only game in the past 26 that the Rams have won. Enter Sam Bradford; yes, with Fred Robbins signed to play DT and A.J. Feeley installed as the bridge QB, the star-crossed Bradford will enter the league with the deck stacked against him (and this is after two shoulder surgeries). Will he turn the Rams around? Will his teammates commit to a coach and an owner not long for the franchise? And what about Stephen Jackson, his knees rapidly being smashed into the turf, until his career is dead, Dead, DEAD?

The real question is, if you live in St. Louis or root for Les Mouflons, do you want them to stay? They've played in Cleveland and LA before; in your heart of hearts you had to know this wasn't for long. It was pretty magical they got Mike Martz and Warner in their primes - it was pretty stupid to get rid of both of them in favor of Marc Bulger and Scott Linehan. Ultimately the Rams aren't at the bottom of this list because their failure doesn't hurt people the way Bills fans are hurt. St. Louis' moment of triumph is not so distant a memory - they can still savor it. And once The Gang that Couldn't Shoot Straight leaves town, hope of expansion, high picks and an unblemished history can start all over again.

#32: Minor League Hockey

2010-03-03T13:00:00.000-08:00

The season is months away, we haven't hit the draft or free agency or even minicamp. However, Will Leitch keeps running his mouth on Deadspin about why the Dodgers will always be young, the Rockies are the Beverly Hillbillies and the Red Sox are the team of the decade. Well, he's not the only one that wants to write an article about every team in a professional sports league. I'm gonna rank each, starting with the worst. There might be dozens of roster changes ahead, but no one can deny, with the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft...

Well, who knows what Chan Gailey will do? First off, is he and offensive or defensive mind? Wikipedia says offense, so obviously retooling the defense and shifting to a 3-4 should be at the top of the agenda. Wait, what? The genius behind Pittsburgh's 1997 sixth best offense is finally getting the recognition he deserves by being awarded one of the worst head-coaching positions in the game.

Why is coaching in Buffalo so bad? Owner Ralph Wilson doesn't believe in spending money, or "the star system", so you basicall have to build from within. The only problem is, the last time Buffalo had a decent team, Wade Philips could remember his own name. Gailey is taking over a team that can't even be described as retreads, but rather as not-quite-good-enoughs. The Bills are bush league all the way, best demonstrated by their offensive MVP, Fred Jackson, out of D-III Coe College.

Every team gets to hit rock bottom, it's the way of the league. The Bills have been so demoralizingly mediocre over the past decade, however, that one might think they had seen a true low. They haven't but they will this year. They have no offensive identity; their defense is in transition and they will not make a big move in free agency, so don't count on any leadership. This will be the worst season in Buffalo Bills history. Their predicament isn't helped any by the fact that two of their divisional rivals, Dolphins and Jets, seem to have found themselves the past two years. The AFC East is a division with three very good teams - and Buffalo. They're about to learn what it's like to be a Lions fan.

Who's to blame in all this? His Hall of Fame induction aside, Ralph Wilson has done no more to improve his team than Al Davis. The difference? At least Davis is trying something - sure, giving huge contracts to speed demons is a horrible strategy, but the only time the Bills have signed a sexy free agent was when they committed the single most superficial deal of the decade - signing T.O. to a one year contract. Wilson doesn't care about team chemistry - it's starting to seem like he doesn't care about the team.

T.O.'s gone now, but don't blame this mess on him; he was fairly productive for a 35 year old receiver. There's a lot of talk that the Bills will move to Toronto. In theory, this would be a bad thing, denying those wingeaters their history of gutwrenching losses. Well, there will be no stomach-churning wide right or senseless Leodis McKelvin fumble that chokes away the season late for the Buffaloes. It will be over long before that.

The Last 2 Weeks

2010-03-01T11:42:00.000-08:00

Okay, so it's the slowest part of the offseason, where players get cut, people mull over the combine, and some of us even start thinking about baseball season. I have not written anything in this space in a while, so here's a quick rundown of what I've had my eye on:

+ The Saints celebrated. A lot. Up to and past the point of hubris. The offseason is still young, but Sean Payton isn't getting any more humble. No one is putting the 2009 Saints up there with the best teams of all time - if they want to repeat, theyre going to have to sweep up the confetti and go back to work. With NFC heavies like the Vikings and Cowboys looking for revenge, Payton better come up with twice as many clever plays. And someone should figure out whether Reggie Bush is worth 8 millions dollars.

+ Two teams, lots of potential, perennially in the playoffs for the better part of a decade (thought always the bridesmaid, and never the bride) thanks to a pair of dynamic running backs. LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook have both been cut. Thomas Jones seems soon to follow. The fact is, no running back gets to the end of his second contract, no matter how good they are. Jones probably has the most left in the tank, but don't expect to see any of these guys get the carries they have in the past. Bill Belichick doesn't know who to call first.

+ The Scouting Combine is winding down as I type, which means it's time to look at winners and losers in the world championships of irrelevant drills. Maryland offensive tackle Mike Williams (yet another M-dub) ran a road-runnerly 4.78 40, despite weighing 313 pounds. Gerald McCoy, who some think is the #1 overall pick, benched 225 pounds a measly 23 times, revealing himself as grossly out of shape. Terrence Cody lost 20 pounds in 4 weeks to clock in a svelte 354. The new name? Tight end Dorin Dickerson (6'4, 234) ran a 4.4 40, putting him perhaps at the top of the list at his position (and WR too). And TE/QB/H-back prospect Tim Tebow ran a devilish time in the 3-cone drill. This is an extraordinarily deep draft because many underclassmen are coming out in light of a possibly rookie wage scale starting next year.

+ And with that, he most annoying and persistent story of the past several years in college football has made its way over to the NFL tab on sports websites. There's been a great deal of talk about Tim Tebow's throwing motion and whether he tried to change it under Urban Meyer. Mike Holmgren came out and said a QB can never change, possibly damning God's Chosen to the third or fourth round. A few years ago, the Ravens took Heisman winner Troy Smith in the sixth - he's barely seen the field since. Expect the Florida hype machine to lead to a wasted pick. Look at where he's holding the ball in this picture? Jared Allen (and others) love the low-hanging fruit.

+ Overtime is changing! The proposal before the rules committee: the team that gets the ball first can win with a TD, and deny the other team possession, but they have to play aggressive, because if they only kick a FG, the other team gets to match. If the second team doesn't score, the game is over. If they kick a FG, the game moves to sudden death. This has been coming a long time, and it took the dashing of a Brett Favre storyline to finally put the measures over the top. Not only will this make overtime more dramatic and create less disputable results, I think it will effect the way coaches call the end of the fourth quarter. This is by far the best news of the offseason.

+ Well, it's March 1, and it doesn't look like there's going to be an 11th hour labor deal, so here comes the uncapped year! A few years ago, the late Gene Upshaw predicted that if the salary cap ever went away, it would never come back. Well, it's going, which means the Redskins can sign Julius Peppers' to a crazy bananas deal without (financial) repercussions. Also, this means Antrel Rolle will be cut, be then resigned, by the Cardinals. Too complicated to think about.

Click it back March 5 for the opening of the league year. First up? Unrestricted free agency.

Ronin

2010-02-14T19:25:00.000-08:00

Even though 2010 is likely to be uncapped, that doesn't mean teams are willing to throw money around willy-nilly. The most prominent players who have been or will be cut come March 5:

Antonio Pierce, LB, Giants: When a neck injury landed Pierce on IR last year, no one could have guessed it would be his last season with the G-men. Like Derrick Brooks and Keith Brooking before him, Pierce is a veteran leader middle linebacker being cut loose with something left in the tank. This isn't the type of move that usually benefits the team making it. Pierce is instinctive, strong and tough, a poor man's Ray Lewis with the same type of bark. He'll slip seamlessly into any 4-3 scheme, and produce. Where he lands: Philly seems the most likely spot, where the back 7 left something to be desired, thanks to a lack of leadership and a revolving door in the middle. The Eagles would give Pierce a chance to take immediate revenge.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: When we look back on NFL history, LaDainian Tomlinson might be the most explosive and frightening player of all time. He left his youth, his records, and his mark in the city of San Diego, but the closest he ever came to the Super Bowl was sitting on the sidelines, injured, in Foxboro, as the undefeated Pats sleepwalked to a 21-12 victory in the 2007 AFC Championship. LT's last game as a Charger, in which his involvment singlehandedly bogged down Philip Rivers' points machine, was a sad and ignominious end to his time as a Bolt. He showed some ability in short yardage, but will anyone want him? Where he lands: Short answer: no. When this same fate befell Shaun Alexander, no one called til midseason, and then it was just old friend Jim Zorn. Like Marvin Harrison before him, LT will have to take a severe hometown discount, or call it quits.

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Chad Pennington might be the safe bet for a backup, but if you want a big arm with upside, look no further than Derek Anderson. It's not clear who's to blame for the last few years in Cleveland, but the whole is clearly less than the sum of its parts. Anderson was explosive in 2007 - put him with some playmakers, he could regain his form. He needs fast, young, stretch the field type guys - running game and possession receivers need not apply. Where he lands: Big arm, short on brains, sounds like a match made in heaven for the Oakland Raiders. If Jamarcus struggles, Anderson can offer a similarly flawed skill-set. With a cannon that could cut through wind, he might be in the mix if given a chance with the Bills.

Joey Porter, DE/OLB, Dolphins: Porter was cut earlier this week, then reinstated for cap/legal reasons (I don't understand it either). At 33, Porter can't be paid premium money, but he can certainly still be a disruptive force, along the lines of Michael Strahan on the 07 Giants. The Dolphins are in a tough spot; they could really use Porter, but can't possibly pay him what his current contract dictates. Expect a bidding war, a lot of jawing, followed by a double digit sack season. Where he lands: With his non-stop mouth and physical brand of play, Porter was born to play for Rex Ryan, whose Jets could certainly use a pass rush. New England has similar needs, but Porter and Bill Belichick may not (almost certainly do not) see eye to eye.

Donte Stallworth, WR, Browns: It's been over a year since NFL audiences last got to be underwhelmed by the mid-level stylings of Donte Stallworth, a former first round pick who has worn the jersey of four teams already in his short career. He's never had a thousand-yard season, and he's only played 16 games 3 times, so don't expect a big contract (like the 7-year, 35 million dollar one he penned with Cleveland 2 years ago), but he can be a number 2 or strong 3 somewhere. And will be. Where he lands: Detroit has already come calling, and that makes a lot of sense, but don't count out New England, where the offense has never been the same since Stallworth left.

Let's Get Free: The Unrestricted Class of 2010

2010-02-10T09:52:00.000-08:00

It does not look like the players and the league are going to get together on a new collective bargaining agreement, which makes talking about off-seasons moves trick. Without a new CBA, all players in the league less than 6 years will be restricted free agents, meaning their current teams can hold them with a relatively low one year tender offer, unless the teams are offered a draft-day trade with pre-determined values. In other words, it's complicated, and it's going to take a genius general manager to lure effective talent in the free agent market this year, especially with a lockout coming. The top names I'm certain will be on the market, deal or no deal (excluding players like Leon Washington or Vince Wilfork, who will be franchised or resigned without a shadow of a doubt).

Karlos Dansby, LB: A lot can happen in a year plus. When Matt Cassell blew the Cardinals off the field in December of '08, no one could have known that mid-level journeyman Dansby would be the prize defensive player of this draft. He's relatively young (29), a proven leader, can tackle and has above average coverage skills. If Bart Scott got 48 million last February, you can bet Dansby is going to get a similar deal. The only problem? 3-4 teams need not apply. Who needs him: Dansby started with the G-men; they need all the help at linebacker they can get. Also consider the Bear, Eagles and Saints. Free agent with a similar market: Gary Brackett, but it's hard to imagine him getting out of Indy. Cheaper options: Danny Clark, Larry Foote, Cato June.

Antonio Bryant, WR: He had a breakout year in 2008, and got franchised. 2009 saw him on one of the worst teams in the league, plagued by injury. Antonio Bryant will certainly not get a blockbuster deal. However, guys who can be #1 wideouts are always in high demand (Anquan Boldin has been on the trading block since 2006). After seeing what the Jets got out of a minimal investment in Braylon Edwards, teams will be lining up to get Bryant, who at 29, has some definite years left. He's a big upgrade over last year's hot FA wideout, TJ Houshmanzadeh. Who needs him: Bryant can be had at a great value, with some risk - sounds like Bill Belichick or Bill Parcells will be calling. FA with similar market: Chris Chambers has the same fading skill set and 1a potential. Cheaper option: T.O., whose market value is at an all time low.

Chad Pennington, QB: The best free agent QB is...Chad Pennington coming off his third career shoulder surgery? Jason Campbell doesn't look to be leaving Washington, so it could (once again) be Pennington's time to shine. If you're a team with a young QB, or about to draft a young QB, Chad is a great option, with his "lead from the sidelines" personality. And who knows? He could win another Comeback Player of the Year award. Who needs him: J-E-T-S. With Kellen Clemens gone, why bring in a backup who needs to learn the system from scratch? Also, don't count out the Browns, where he could give Brady Quinn invaluable noodle-arm guidance. FA with similar market: David Carr, who has shown enough in New York to warrant another shot at a starting job. Cheaper option: Charlie Batch, Chris Redman.

Julius Peppers, DE: Peppers got paid nearly 2 million dollars per sack last season, and now it's time for Carolina to let him go. The specimen is on record saying he's willing to transition to standing outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, but who knows if any coach thinks him capable. Peppers is the rare case of diva D-end, a player who can turn it on or off at the drop of a hat. The team that signs him could get a steal, or be ruined in the process. Who needs him: A 4-3 team with plenty of extra money lying around and a desperate need for a pass-rush? San Francisco jumps off the page. FA with similar market: Aaron Kampmann of the Packers is a high-motor guy with limited use in his current defense. He can be as effective as Peppers if given the chance. Cheaper option: Derrick Burgess, Adewale Ogunleye, Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Willie Parker, RB: Fast Willie and Mike Tomlin never really got along in their brief time together, and now the man who holds the record for longest run in the Super Bowl will be on the street. Though most have written Parker off, I'm convinced there's a lot left, especially if he gets behind the right offensive line. If he stays healthy, his 10-15 carries a game could be invaluable - think Fred Taylor or Willis McGahee. Who needs him: The Texans, G-men (again), Browns, Jaguars, Titans - they could all use a more reliable 4-6 yard cutback runner than they have right now. FA with similar market: none. Parker will get to pick and choose, then become a Texan. I think he might be next season's Cedric Benson.

Next post: we'll look at the league's Ronin, cut loose from their master for poor play, old age, or being Derek Anderson.

In the Poker Game of Life, Peyton Manning is a One-Eyed Jack: Punxatawny Polamalu Has Spoken

2010-02-08T17:16:00.000-08:00

Another wild season is over in the NFL, and this time not with a bang, but a whimper. To a general public thrillingly introduced to David Tyree and Santonio Holmes over the past two years, it was a shot to gut for most to see the name of names, Peyton Manning, slowly lose his composure and ultimately throw away the game. The 31-17 victory by the Saints represented the largest margin in the championship game in 7 years, dating back to the Buccaneers-Raiders snooze fest (MVP: Dexter Jackson).

Okay, Sean Payton was great, he was ballsy. To the casual fan, who has never seen an onside kick, he was a genius. The fact, Hank Baskett was not surprised one bit by the play starting the second half, he just missed it. The fact is, Payton was less creative than he had been all season - Reggie Bush didn't run 50 yards on a reverse to gain 15, Robert Meachem never went deep, and no one lept over anyone by design. The Saints were conservative, matching the philosophy and game plan used by the Colts all year. The difference: the Saints executed.

Chad Simpson returned a kick to the 11 from deep in the end zone. Pierre Garcon had two crucial drops that could've put the game out of reach in the second quarter. Matt Stover missed a 51 yard kick (a bad call by Jim Caldwell to even send him out). But it all comes back to that pick-6. When it happened, I was in total disbelief. Looking back on it a day later, it's one of the single worst plays by a QB in Super Bowl history. And this is a game that has played host to the athletic stylings of Chris Chandler.

In week 3, Monday Night Football featured the Cowboys and Panthers. Down 13-7 with minimal time left, Jake Delhomme, who led the league in turnovers this season, dropped back, looking for the quick slant to Steve Smith. Without looking at any other receiver, and failing to notice that Smith had changed his route, Delhomm fired the ball short to his left, where only Terence Newman could have possibly made the play. Newman stepped in front of Smith, who had barely turned around, and took the pass to the house. Look at that Manning play. Tracy Porter, a much less talented and experienced defensive back than Newman, makes the exact same play. Manning could have been on the Mount Rushmore of NFL QBs this morning; instead he's drawing comparisons to Jake the Snake.

And let's not stop there. Peyton finds himself now in the Brett Favre group, or as it might better be called, the 1b group. One title, some very noticeable flaws. Except Favre has always been an up and down player, regular season or post. Peyton has a much higher win percentage, but just can't do it in the playoffs. And this game just wasn't losing in the playoffs. This was an all-time brainfart, a throw he never should have made, and I'll say it: this was the single worst Super Bowl interception ever thrown by a good QB. Saints fans can party and drink as much as they want, but the Colts and Peyton choked. Hard.

Observations, fun stuff and house cleaning from the 44th Big Game:

+ How bad do the Chargers/Dolphins feel now? Drew Brees is the best QB in the NFL, and they're stuck with bad coaches in good weather. The Culpepper signing remains one of the worst ever.

+ Chances of being an American named Pierre: 1 in 125,000. Chances of any American named Pierre making an NFL roster: 1 in 156 million. Chances of two men named Pierre scoring in the same game, let alone the Super Bowl: trillions.

+ Let me get ahead of the curve to say that Sean Payton is the next generation of Bill Belichick. He has guts, he's a Parcells guy, and I hate him. Expect the Saints to hit the ground running next year and be the first team to win the NFC South back to back years.

+ Where the #$%#!# was Reggie Wayne? Not just on the Tracy Porter play, but the whole game. This may be an underreported part of the aftermath, but for an elite receiver against a so-so secondary, Wayne got shut down.

+ Bill Polian is a good GM, but he's not a winner. Neither is Jim Caldwell. These guys aren't particularly smart, they just assume the quality of their talent will bring them through. It didn't and it generally doesn't. Strategy is the name of the game. Or actually, football.

+ Manning got credited with the game's only turnover, but Caldwell was responsible for at least two others. 1) Everyone knows Matt Stover can't hit 50-yard field goals; if he could, he'd still be a Raven and 2) not putting the offense in overdrive at the end of the first half let Payton off the hook for the 4th and goal call.

+ The Saints got very lucky on their way to the Lombardi trophy (an uncalled block in the back on Manning on the Porter TD was the last such instance). Let's just say the NFL delivered what the fans wanted.

+ Were the Minnesota Vikings the best team this year? In their final two playoff games, the Saints were outgained by 318 yards, by far a record for a winning team in consecutive postseason contests. Over 200 of those yards were in the Minnesota game, accompanied by 6 (or so) costly turnovers.

Thanks for a great season, readers. Later this week, I'll start in on free agency, restricted and otherwise, and a comprehensive list of players I expect to be handed a pink slip.

I Sing of Arms and a Man: SB Pick

2010-02-05T12:55:00.000-08:00

The farther we move, the less and less we remember. NFL seasons, if they are remembered at all, are done so for their champion. The rise and fall of the Bengals, the Cowboys getting the monkey off their back, the Chargers 11 game winning streak and that amazing 51-45 OT classic between the Packers and the Cards - all will exist only in the memory of NFL Network programming executives come Sunday. We understand the game through a dominant narrative thread.

When we look back at this year, one story stands above all others: 2009 is the season Peyton Manning silenced the last of his critics. Without Marvin Harison or Anthony Gonzalez, Manning ravenously tore apart the best defenses in the league, earned his 4th MVP award and guided his team to the Super Bowl, winning every game in which he played the entirety. If you want to see the field-generalship-play-of-the-year, go back to week 3, when Manning audibled to a slip-screen at the last moment, and delivered Pierre Garcon easily to the endzone, trouncing the Dolphins, who held the ball for 46 minutes. Or how about coach of the decade Bill Belichick, suicidally going for it deep in his own end, out of sheer respect and fear for Manning's ability to come up in the clutch. For about ten years, Manning was among the greatest of our time. This season, he became one of the greatest of all time.

Looking at the Saints, the dominant narrative of their season seems to have been luck. In the regular season, they beat the Redskins and Dolphins in games they had no business winning. Two weeks ago, they were largely a non-factor in a battle of Vikings vs. themselves. New Orleans hasn't looked right since they beat the Patriots, which was back in November. The Saints have had that voodoo going their way all year, from tipped picks to fortuitous missed FGs. However, in a Super Bowl, especially one against the uber-prepared and always professional Colts, luck is not likely to play a factor. Peyton Manning makes the ball bounce his way.

I know the argument - the Colts haven't face a real offense since the Patriot game - but the fact is, Peyton's shredded some pretty solid defenses against Baltimore and New York. Darren Sharper highlight reel aside, the Saints are in the bottom third of the league in total yards and points allowed. This puts it on Brees' shoulders to keep up with Peyton. No one's talking about how good Indy's D is - okay, everyone's picked apart every conceivable piece of this game, but that D is still solid.

The game will get out to a fast start, probably with the Saints scoring first. I see 21-14 at half, Colts, but then the game becomes a slog. Final: Indianapolis 35, New Orleans 24.

Let's Start Unpacking This Thing: 10 Keys

2010-02-02T09:53:00.000-08:00

I know, I know, it's pre-Super Wednesday and I still haven't written word 1 about the Saints or Colts. Media day, big ad-time, reporters flocking drunk to a tropical paradise - that stuff's the same year to year. So what's special about this year? If Peyton Manning wins, he joins the "pantheon" with guys like Montana, Elway and Brady. If the Saints win, we all get to stop talking about Hurricane Katrina forever. Also, Reggie Bush will marry Kim Kardashian, who can finally stop hearing her sis brag about dating a champion. Blah blah blah. Ten questions ESPN hasn't beat into the ground.

1) Who's the Saints X-factor we're forgetting about? In week 15, the Jags almost knocked the Colts off using flighty running back Maurice Jones Drew. Pierre Thomas boasts a similar skill set, and he's murder on the screen pass - basically a number 1 running back with fresher legs. The Colts might be fast, but so is Thomas. If they spend too much time focusing on Reggie Bush, Thomas could be the one to murder them underneath.

2) Is the Saints Secondary good enough to slow down Peyton? The Jets might have Darrelle Revis, and the Ravens Ed Reed, but man for man, the Fleur-de-lis are the best group of defensive backs Manning has tangoed with this postseason. That's not to say that they will shut receivers down, but they may be able to generate turnovers. Gregg Williams will not have once corner follow Reggie Wayne, so everyone will have to be at the top of their game.

3) Will the Colts try to run the ball more than they have? They certainly should try - New Orleans biggest weakness on defense is straight up the middle. If the Colts run play action and the stretch all game, they will be ignoring one area where they have a huge advantage. I said it before the Jets game, but I believe Donald Brown will play a big role opening up the defensive middle of the Saints. If linebackers and safeties have to play strong inside against the run, Dallas Clark will be open early and often.

4) What about Dwight Freeney? Last year, Hines Ward was badly injured against the Ravens and was listed as questionable for the Super Bowl. He made one big play in the first quarter, then was a non-factor for the rest of the game. I think Jim Caldwell faces a choice - show Freeney early to intimidate Sean Payton, or save him for a crucial situation in the second half. From the reports coming out of the Indy camp, the All-world pass rusher will not be available the whole game. Payton and Brees need to identify the downs he's out and try to make big plays, possibly with Bush or Thomas coming free from the backfield. Without the big guy and his spin move occupying two blockers, one more receiver will be open per play.

5) Speaking of Bush, the Saints have a huge advantage on special teams, right? Nowhere near as much as you might think. The Saints have been pitiful covering kicks and field goal kicking (thanks, Footballoutsiders.com). Meanwhile, T.J. Rushing and Chad Simpson have made some explosive return plays, none as important as Simpson's 93 yard kickoff TD against the Jags. While Bush is a force to be reckoned with, he often tries to make one move too many - this leads to negative returns and fumbles. Bush cannot get caught up in the moment, or he could lose this game singlehandedly.

6) Can the Saints generate big plays? Is there any other way they can win? The Saints have been called a rhythm offense, but they are no such thing. As good as Marques Colston is, he is no possession receiver. A Saints victory depends on Bush or one of the speed receivers, Meachem or Henderson, making at least one long TD. The Colts secondary, especially Antoine Bethea, will be ready however, particularly on plays where Freeney is on the bench. The Saints will lose a back and forth game - they need to score faster than the Colts.

7) Is there a coaching advantage? Two weeks ago we stood in this same spot - and I called Jim Caldwell an idiot. Caldwell brings the quiet confidence of Eli Manning, which is to say we think he stinks, but he's in the Super Bowl, right? Like Eli, Caldwell is too emotionless, too dopey looking to get caught up in the moment. On the other hand, all this fate crap is getting to Sean Payton. When your coach cries at the podium, he probably didn't expect to get this far. The Saints have been far too lucky to put this all on Payton. I say Caldwell gets up, keeps his cool, and finishes this thing out.

8) What if Manning has a bad game? Do you know when the last time the Colts lost a game Manning played start to finish? It was last year in the playoffs, when the Chargers won in a single possession of overtime. Last time Manning had a chance to win the game and lost? October 2008, against the fearsome Tennessee defense. Bottom line? The Saints aren't good enough to make Manning look bad for 4 quarters. I make this point to state that a Saints blowout victory is mathematically impossible.

9) What if it rains? Rain tends to favor the team that can run, and hurts the scheme based on speed. The Saints offense is by far the better rushing team, but also the faster offense that relies on the big play. Peyton Manning already won a Super Bowl in the rain in Miami. Freeney, Session and the fast-flow D will be slowed in a slog, but so will quick-cutting players like Bush and Meachem. No pun intended - rain is a wash.

10) Do the Saints *really* have a chance? The Jets had to play perfect to beat the Colts - for the first half, they did. The Saints have to match the Jets on offense - maybe they do, maybe they don't. New Orleans has to be perfect, and crush Indy early in order to win. I'm thinking, defensive score, near-perfect day from Brees, and no stupid turnovers. The Saints have played this way this season - just not lately. Also, Drew Brees' shoulder may be hurthing - look for Freeney and Mathis to target him early. My game plans and picks are coming later in the week, but you can see where I'm leaning.

Kurt Warner, Mike Martz and the St. Louis Rams: 3 Wholly Unrelated Stories

2010-01-31T18:14:00.000-08:00

And, we're back live. After a week of mourning the Jets, it's time to fire up the ole blog again as we gear up for tonight's Pro Bowl. Amidst Bryant McKinnie being a poor sport, Jim Zorn getting a new gig, and Rex Ryan continuing to eat and talk, the three principals in 1999's Greatest Show on Turf were involved in the biggest stories of the week.

By the time we kick off the 2010 season, who will own the St. Louis Rams? Stephen Jackson and the other 52 have won 6 of their past 48 games, making them the worst team in the league over that stretch. Their fans are more interested than those in Jacksonville, but two ownership groups are bidding from out of town. One would make the unpopular move to Toronto, the other would bring thre gold and blue to LA, where they might be shamed into the of proposed NFL dregs vs. USC exhibition.

We can all agree on one thing: the St. Louis Rams must be sold, but quick. They are floundering under current ownership, but with the number 1 overall pick, they might be able to turn things around. Probably not before Stephen Jackson's career is over, unfortunately. Should they be moved? LA is building a stadium, team or not, and they already play in the NFC West. By 2011, odds are the Edward Jones Dome is hosting the largest Nelly concert to date.

When nothing's working and your team is in such a tailspin that college coaches are turning down offers to become the offensive co-ordinator, it's time to call Mike Martz. The former Rams, 49ers and Lions guru is about to become Jay Cutler's next head-shrinker, as the Bears go for broke. Unless Martz turns water into wine and the Bears make a deep playoff run, this can only ruin everyone involved.

Cutler will regress in a new complex system. Lovie and Jerry Angelo will be fired, while Martz and an empty suit installed as interim management. The defense will get older and scramble to leave after Brian Urlacher retires. Bye everybody.

Good night, Kurt Warner. 3 Super Bowls, a pristine postseason record and the resurrection of two franchises, Warner is a sure-fire hall of famer, even if not on the first ballot. Mostly, this is good news for the San Francisco 49ers, who look like the next big thing in the NFC West. The Cards will trade Anquan Boldin and begin preparing for the future. My guess: it doesn't involve immature pretty boy Matt Leinart.

The Losers Part 2: New York Jets

2010-01-25T10:12:00.000-08:00

Again, if you don’t read this blog, I’m a huge Jets fan (and that love gets bigger every day). Today is a very strange day in New York; Gang Green is out of the playoffs and its pouring rain – yet the future has never been brighter.

The Jets started hot, catching the Texans, Patriots and Titans at the right time. Mark Sanchez looked like Matt Ryan, so GM Mike Tannenbaum decided to get him a present – the enigmatic Braylon Edwards, a deep threat too enticing to not throw the ball all over the yard, which led to 6 losses in the next 7 games. During this stretch they lost pro-bowlers Leon Washington and Kris Jenkins. Jenkins, 30, is especially important, because capable 3-4 nose tackles don’t grow on trees.

Then Rex Ryan “got involved” with the offense, and despite an injury to 6, the Jets won seven of their next eight games to land in the championship with a team, the Colts, that won every time it tried in 2009.

(I’ll admit the Colts did not try to win and probably would have in week 16, thus eliminating the Jets. But week 17 would have put the 15-0 Colts in a blizzard in Buffalo, with Bills fans looking for blood and icy patches of turf screaming injury on every play. If Indy was playing at home or in southerly climes week 17, I don’t think Indy makes the same move against the Jets. Enough, it happened.)

Those extra weeks of relevance gave Rex Ryan and offensive co-ordinator the bait he needed to motivate and mold the Jets into a fearsome unit with a defined identity. More than any other sport, football is about repetition and execution of a plan – teams, players and seasons fall apart because coaches can’t find a plan that works, and keep changing. Inconsistency in identity is what has besieged Alex Smith and the Cleveland Browns for years.

To the game – the Jets needed to stay healthy, comparatively, and play perfectly to beat the Colts. With Lito Sheppard slumping, a lot rested on the shoulders of third corner Donald Strickland, who was assigned to Austin Collie – when he went down, the Jets had no chance whatsoever of beating Indy. When rookie stud Shonn Greene went down, they lost their ability to ground and pound. The Jets played mistake free until the end, but this team wasn’t quite there yet personnel wise - at least not to beat arguably the best Colt team in the Peyton Manning era. We did, however, see Mark Sanchez grow up before our eyes – his 90 QB rating is by far the best among rookies in championship games.

Schottenheimer likes the Jets young core so much he declined the Bills job to stay and coach next year. Dustin Keller, Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Jerircho Cotchery, Leon Washington and Braylon Edwards (most likely) will all be back next year, behind the best O-line in football, which has taken every snap together for 2 years running. Rex has more picks this year to get some bodies on defense, plus Jenkins will be back. Ryan has coached the best defense in football three of the past five years, this time with players who, for the most part, were picking up the system as the season went along.

The most amazing part is that for all the boasting, all the setbacks, all the reasons the Jets could have failed or quit, they never did. All of this goes back to Ryan’s introductory press conference, when he promised the Jets would run the football and play good defense. He announced his intentions, and he followed through. When Rex took the job, he presented a 60-page, three-year plan, which included a Super Bowl appearance in year two. When the Jets led 17-13 at the half, suddenly he didn’t seem so crazy. All in all, yesterday was the best I've ever felt being a Jets fan. And this morning, that feeeling wasn't gone.

The Losers Part 1: Minnesota Vikings

2010-01-25T09:59:00.000-08:00

A boatload can and will be written about the Colts and Saints in the next few weeks. So I’m going to break down the Championship games purely from the losing teams’ perspective. Since the Super Bowl loser rarely makes noise the following season, these two are among the best the NFL has to offer.

I’ll start with the more disheartened fan base. The Minnesota Vikings were the as close you can get to elite without actually qualifying this year. An unlucky bounce against the Steelers made them a one-loss team early on, so they disappeared from the spotlight, except when Favre and Chilly had their dust-up in Carolina. They hit the jackpot with two draft picks, WR Percy Harvin and right tackle Phil Loadholt, both of whom were essential to their 10-1 start and number 2 seed. Putting those pieces together with Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and one of the best defenses in football had them soaring, and favored by many to knock off the Saints, a finesse team with clear holes in both run and pass defense.

That is, until, the Vikings showed their true colors. During the Vikings run, people like me pointed at three individual weaknesses in Purple Nation. 1) Adrian Peterson’s fumbling problems, which showed up most prominently in the regular season during nationally televised games against Green Bay and Chicago; 2) Brad Childress being from the Andy Reid school of unbelievably boneheaded game management, if only every once in a while ; and 3) No. 4 could have “one of those days” at any time.

If any one of those things reared its ugly head in the playoffs, the Purple could be toast, leading to a classic Vikings heartbreaker. The fact that they all did at once, in the NFC Championship game, should probably come as a surprise to no one. I don’t blame Favre at all (it is funny that he ended his once-arch-rivals season by yet again making an unorthodox across the body throw), but he had to make a play; a 55 yard field goal in a rollicking Superdome is no gimme, even for Ryan Longwell. More blame has to go to Childress, who sent out 12 men to the huddle after a timeout, after a pair of uber-conservative run calls.

But more than Favre and Chilly, the loss really belongs squarely on the shoulders of the one Vikings you can’t get rid of: Adrian Peterson. He coughed up the rock three times (the stat sheet might say two, but the one credited to Favre on a botched handoff was All-Day’s fault as well), helping to explain how the Vikes outgained the Saints by some 200 yards and still managed to lose. In his first two years in the league, not every team he played against had seen him – he streaked by on pure athleticism. But the final 10 games of this season show that the physical freak has some very human flaws carrying the football.

Here’s the weakness few, if any, brought up – the loss of veteran center Matt Birk. A Harvard man, Birk was never Kevin Mawae or Jeff Saturday; but he was just behind them. The offensive line really let the Vikings down in key situation, both in pass and run blocking. Second year starting center John Sullivan wasn't bad by any stretch, but he didn’t have the anticipatory leadership of Birk (who led young players Ray Rice, Michael Oher and Joe Flacco to succeed in Baltimore this year), which made Adrian’s lanes narrower, and led to many hits on Favre, especially in road games.

I take back what I said earlier – the Minnesota Vikings were an elite club this year (I haven't even mentioned Sidney Rice, who might be the next big thing). They held down the Saints in a way no one thought they possibly could, and even while losing the turnover battle badly, the Vikes still could have won the game. On a night when penalties and turnovers sunk the ship, the Vikings still SHOULD have won. This was only Chilly and the gang’s first trip deep in the tournament, so I wouldn’t call them chokers or, worse, the Eagles just yet.

Obviously, a great deal depends on Favre. However, if we look at the last time his career almost ended on a championship-icing pick (2007), the circumstances are very different. Favre just had the best season of his career, and there’s no Aaron Rodgers breathing down his throat. He’ll certainly be back. And the Vikings will certainly be back (might want to draft a DT to replace Pat Williams), although the Packers look to be gaining on them in the division. And then we can talk about all these weaknesses again.

Oh, I also found this picture of a pensive Jeremy Piven on ESPN.com. I guess he was at the game. Not sure who he was rooting for.

January 12, 1969: The AFC Championship Preview

2010-01-19T17:35:00.001-08:00

When Troy Polamalu returned a Joe Flacco interception to the house at the end of last year's AFC Championship, Rex Ryan knew he had probably seen his last victory with the Baltimore Ravens. After a tour of the open positions in the NFL, he settled on the New York Jets. Ryan might have lost the game, but he sure hadn't lost his attitude:

Rex Ryan jawed all offseason, and all regular season. He stared 4-6 in the face, and he hung his hat on the performance of a rookie with 16 games of college experience. Anyone has the right to call the Jets frauds, but I doubt the Texans could have gone into San Diego and stopped Philip Rivers. The Jets have earned their way into the AFC Championship because of Ryan's sheer force of will and clarity of message, making an elite defense of a unit with one elite defender.

It was back in the final days of the Johnson administration when Joe Namath and the upstarts of the AFL knocked out the invulnerable '68 Colts, arguably the greatest team to ever lose the Super Bowl. Broadway Joe earned a lifetime of accolades by backing up a guarantee, not unlike the one Rex made a few weeks ago, when he said the Jets should be favored to win the whole thing. Now, the '09 Jets are hardly Namath's version (they have a much better defense), and Peyton Manning, well, let's take a look inside:

When Indianapolis Has the Ball: It might seem odd to start with a backup running back when discussing the Colts' offense, but I really believe the key to this game is Donald Brown. The Jets are weak against the run, but particularly the power back, which Joseph Addai certainly is not. Cedric Benson, MJD, Marshawn Lynch - they all had their moments. Rex Ryan does not have a Ray Lewis, which puts this one hole in his scheme. Brown had a TD before the starters were pulled in week 16.

As to the passing attack, Peyton will be Peyton. The first time these teams met, Manning could have put the Jets away and been sitting pretty 15-0, but he missed some key throws downfield, especially to Reggie, who had beat Revis deep. Was it the Green blitz that rattled the old gunslinger? Maybe. Look, it is certainly within Peyton Manning's ability to beat a great defense when push comes to shove - he did it against the Steelers last season. But anyone can have an off day.

If Revis holds up, the Jets can only think about one thing - cover Dallas Clark, win the game. They didn't do a great job of this in the first meeting - I doubt we see 3rd safety Eric Smith draw that assignment again by himself. The Colts don't have the screen game of the Bolts, so that should leave David Harris and Bart Scott free to wreak havoc in the backfield, or cover underneath routes, which Manning favored against the Ravens. One thing I've noticed watching the Jets this year - Ryan's blitzes tend to fail early, and then the O-line wears down and someone punches through. Since the Colts pulled their starters, we don't really know what will happen this time. I expect Manning to get hit, but whether it's enough to give him the coveted "rattled" tag is anyone's guess.

When New York Has the Ball:

Clean pockets: Mark Sanchez has seen them all season, because you don't blitz a guy with a strong running game who's turnover prone. Instead, the Colts will wait for the Franchez to make a mistake. I believe a key for the Jets is to get points early, and passing on early downs (as the Ravens did in Flacco's only successful drive of the game) is sound strategy. It keeps Dwight Freeney confused, which is always a good thing.

Let me devote a paragraph to this now, so I don't hyperventilate during the game. Offensive co-ordinator Brian Schottenheimer always takes exactly one long shot to the end zone for Braylon Edwards a game. He has dropped three of them in the past three weeks - the Jets won every game. When he did catch them, against Miami and Atlanta, the Jets lost. Get together on this, for me, guys. IF BRAYLON EDWARDS CATCHES THE LONG BOMB ON SUNDAY, THE JETS WILL ABSOLUTELY WIN THIS FOOTBALL GAME. It is a metaphysical certitude that this guy will make a play at some point. In order to keep up with Indy, he must.

Ground and pound. Everyone knows the Jets will do it, yet they still succeed. It's because Alan Faneca is going to the Hall of Fame, and Nick Mangold might be well on his way. Just like Rex's blitz, the run game always breaks through in the second half, when everyone is tired except Shonn Greene. For the Jets to be running in the second half, the game needs to be close. So obviously, if Sanchez (or anyone on the offense) has a meltdown, this game is over.

The Colts run a distant cousin of the Tampa 2, which is always favorable to fleet-of-foot tight ends, so I think more than Freeney and Mathis, Session and Brackett are the important elements of the Colts' D. They need to keep an eye on Greene and Jones, but also the deadly play action to Dustin Keller, who singlehandedly beat the Bengals two weeks ago. They'll also be the point men on any wacky Brad Smith plays. I think the Colts will play stout defense, which may force Sanchez to throw more than the Jets would like. Unfortunately for the Jets, I see the SC grad being put in the spotlight perhaps a bit too much for another upset.

Coaching X-factor: If the whole declining history thing showed us anything, it's that Jim Caldwell is not exactly a go-for-the-throat-kill-kill-kill football genius. Which is to say he's more in the mold of Tony Dungy, which is not news. Tony Dungy lost many a playoff game with basically this same team. Caldwell's milquetoast personality could be the chink in the armor of this seemingly unbeatable club.

A coaching comparison certainly falls in the Jets favor, where Rex has everyone drinking the Kool-Aid. Ryan has the smarts and the callousness of Belichick in his heyday. A lot of people have compared this Jet team to the 2001 Patriots, whose greatest asset was their head coach, who burned through "good football men" like Jim Caldwell before breakfast, then moved on to a real challenge. We can praise Indianapolis team president Bill Polian all we want, but does anybody think if Bill Parcells or Mike Shanahan had coached this team, they would've only won one Super Bowl?

Jets X-factor: Mark Sanchez, plain and simple. No turnovers, and this could be a magical season. He made one mistake last week - I don't think he has room for that many agains Indy.

Colts X-factor: Pierre Garcon. He was injured in the first game and didn't play. The Jets haven't dealt with a No. 2 with big play speed. He needs to make the most of being single-covered.

Pick: I went against my heart and took the Chargers last week. This time? Let it ride. New York 20, Indianapolis 17.

Flashbulbs: The NFC Championship Preview

2010-01-19T11:41:00.000-08:00

As if the NFC championship, Brett Favre, the Katrina team and noted white superstars Jared Allen and Jeremy Shockey weren't enough reason to watch the FOX game this Sunday, Reggie Bush had to go and do his thing like he gave a care.

This is the matchup the NFL has been salivating over all year. Sure, Chargers-Colts or something involving the Patriots or Steelers might have been nice, but people are mostly sick of those story lines. Here we have the Vikes and Saints, two teams with sad histories and legit superstars, bolstered by free agent acquisitions and two truly dominant performances in the regular season. Last year, they met on MNF with Marques Colston down and Gus Frerotte tossing bombs - and it was still an instant classic. In other words, are you ready for some hyperbole? To the x's and o's:

When Minnesota Has the Ball: Adrian Peterson hasn't rushed for 100 yards in over two months - maybe that can help explain the extremely shaky December up north. In order to win this game, the Vikings need to slow the pace down with Peterson, who might even break a big one (although he's done that less and less this year). Why have those "wow" plays disappeared? Before the 2008 season, fullback Tony Richardson fled to New York (we'll get to him in a later post). Last off-season, megabucks center Matt Birk took his leadership and smarts to Baltimore. Bottom line: the blocking for Peterson is significantly worse, not Peterson himself. Against the shaky Saints run defense, he must make headway.

In the aerial department, Brett Favre hardly has the big-bad Dallas D-line to worry about this week. From a time-in-the-pocket standpoint, he should be fine. However, Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter play valiantly on the edges, and both are healthy for the first time since November. With Darren Sharper roaming the middle of the field, and the crowd against him, Favre could be walking into an ambush. My guess is, he won't entirely implode. But don't expect a mistake free day.

As to the Saints defense, their weakness is certainly the run, especially the pounding run up the middle. Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita are role players at outside linebacker, so I think a great deal of this game will come down to Jonathan Vilma, the only truly physical star of the Saints D. If Vilma can diagnose runs and plug the hole, the Saints can keep the Vikings behind schedule and in less-than-advantageous passing situations. There's no doubt that the Saints are the outmatched defense in this game, their only friend being the crowd. If leaders like Vilma and Sharper can channel the noise and energy of the dome into better play on the field, they could make Favre make mistakes. It is an uphill fight.

When New Orleans Has the Ball: Seriously, Houston, why would you ever pick Mario Williams? Reggie Bush showed us not only his best day as a pro, but if he played like that every down, why he might be the next LaDainian Tomlinson. Good lord, if he comes out of the locker room like that Sunday, the Vikings have virtually no shot, as their edge rush defense is less than ideal.

I don't think any such thing happens, however, which puts the onus back on Sean Payton to be a genius. Honestly, Payton is to offense what Bill Belichick is to defense; he has a preternatural ability to create a matchup you cannot win, and exploit it. Nothing is ever difficult for the Saints when things are flowing right, which they generally do in the Superdome. Drew Brees will make big plays, especially against Cedric Griffin and Benny Sapp, two green corners forced into service because of Antoine Winfield's ankle injury. Even healthy, the Vikings would not be able to cover Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey and Bush out of the backfield (let's not forget Pierre Thomas is pretty nifty with screens and short dumpoffs). As they stand now, the Vikes will be picked apart.

Unless, of course, Lesley Frazier and his front four bring it unfathomably. Last week, Jared Allen, the Williams Wall, Ray Edwards and Jimmy Kennedy destroyed Dallas at the point of attack - there was simply nothing left. Now, New Orleans has a much more agile and effective O-line than Dallas' oversized senior citizens - but they're hardly elite. They will crumble from time to time.

Minnesota X-Factor: When Vilma creeps up, who covers Visanthe Shiancoe? He was barely used in the Dallas game plan (except to run up the score), but he was crucial all year long. Favre loves him. Nuff said.

New Orleans X-Factor: Besides Bush? Jahri Evans - we've seen what happens when Jared Allen overpowers his protection - good things for the People-Eaters.

Pick: Saints 38, Vikings 30. A slow start, then some excitement, but Payton has come too far with this team to lose. Not Favre's fault, more likely Peterson's on a fumble. Ultimately, Payton is a better coach than Childress, and he proves it Sunday.

Divisional Weekend: 3 Heavies and a Cinderella

2010-01-17T09:34:00.000-08:00

+ The Saints woke up in a big way last night, rolling the Cardinals like it was October again. The headline has to be Reggie Bush, who set the tone early with his bruising runs and then broke the big one to put the game out of reach, finishing with a punt return score. Jeremy Shockey played hurt and contributed, Sean Payton called a balanced game, and Drew Brees had a clean jersey. New Orleans is as good as any team has been this year, and they get an extra day to rest and watch their upcoming opponent today.

Now, to Arizona. How can a team consistently be so inconsistent? When they lose, it's almost always fumbles that do them in. Although, giving up 90 points on defense doesn't help any either. Kurt Warner will probably be back next year, but this team needs better linemen if they want him upright at the end of the year. At least a new team will get to lose to the AFC this year.

+ The Colts made a boring game out of it with two touchdowns in the final two minutes of the first half. Most impressive was the Colt defense, that held Ray Rice down and didn't let Joe Flacco ever feel comfortable. The Colts looked good, but let's face it, they were hardly challenged. If they don't have to play the Chargers, we'll be watching them in Miami. And not at the Pro Bowl.

Good god, Ravens. Everytime something went right, a bigger thing went wrong. A team trying to pull an upset needs early momentum, and when Joey Joe Jojo nearly threw that pick at the goal line, the air was out of the sails. Ed Reed fumbled Baltimore's only chance to make it a game, and now says he may retire. I have to have some doubts about Joe Flacco's future; he's yet to play big in a big game - maybe Delaware isn't the best place to learn about pressure situations. Baltimore sings the same old song - stifling D, no O.

+ The Cowboys waited a whole four weeks later than normal to not show up in a game (the only recap where I'll start with the loser). Flozell Adams went down early, and from that point forward, Tony Romo was under siege. The front seven were strong against AP, but the back end especially Mike Jenkins, was baptized time and again. A massive breakdown both offensively and defensively.

On the other side, Brett bleeping Favre still has it. The crowd noise helped, but Favre was deadly with the football, especially to emerging star Sidney Rice, who streaked to 3 TDs in this game. This was probably the most impressive Vikings win of the year, as they blew out a more-than-worthy opponent. I still contend this however; AP has to get it going for them to win it all. That Brett Favre game is coming, trust me, and let's not forget Brad Childress' propensity for brain farts.

+ Rex Ryan's Jets are pretty simple; play slow early, hoping Mark Sanchez doesn't make any mistakes. Then, when the defense is playing its strongest, get aggressive enough to win. Despite one ugly interception, Gang Green played its most impressive defensive effort of the season, highlighted by a Revis circus interception that turned the tide of the game permanently. When Bart Scott and David Harris are shutting down the run, it's hard to beat this group. No one can dispute they belong after knocking off the soaring Chargers.

I think San Diego assumed they would win this game. They didn't really look at the scoreboard until late in the 3rd quarter, when Rivers got desperate and threw two picks. LT is completely done, and their commitment to the run probably cost them this game. The Charger D? They were phenomenal, holding the Jets under their season rushing average (if it weren't for one Shonn Greene run, they might have won the game). Norv Turner again comes under scrutiny as the window closes on the Bolts for yet another season in yet another excruciating way. Oh, did I mention Pro Bowler Nate Kaeding missed three kicks?

Alas, poor Marvin! I knew him...

2010-01-15T13:10:00.000-08:00

Somewhere, in Jenkintown, Pennsylvania, a legendary NFL career is on life-support. Okay, let's face it; the attending physician has already pulled the sheet over the corpse of Marvin Harrison, all-pro wide receiver. World champion, record-holder, professional athlete. A couple of game knees and costly fumbles got him bounced from Indianapolis, where team president Bill Polian and QB Peyton Manning have not missed a beat, coasting to another 14-2 season, despite losing one of the franchise's greatest talents.

This would already be a sad story, had Harrison not become embroiled in a murder investigation in his home town of Philadelphia. Read more about it in GQ. Now, as evidence mounts, the quite mystery that was Marvin is getting clearer. In the article, he's described as meticulous and exacting, even in his managing of a sports bar, and that the shooting incident arose last April from him actually barring a drug dealer from entering his establishment.

Ultimately, the story of Marvin Harrison is the age-old "you can't go home again". Harrison had gained fame and fortune, but wanted none of it, other than to buy a few street-corner establishments in North Philly. Take a look at his daily life in Indianapolis, where he lived alone in a condo for twelve years.

There's a borderline personality quality to his life. McDonald's or Wendy's. Don't touch his gameballs. Has to have his Tastykakes. Obsessive compulsive, insistent on things remaining the same, there was nowhere to go but back to his home. One interesting part of the above clip is that Harrison is one of the few celebrity athletes from the streets of Philadelphia to have played football instead of basketball. He wasn't about the glitz and glamour of the NBA, or the spectacle embraced by the Ochocincos of the world.

It's been clear for a while (almost since the incident outside the carwash) that Marvin Harrison has seen his last NFL game. Now, it seems he's almost certainly guilty of shooting "Pop" Dixon, and perhaps oh finishing Dixon off when he was set to testify. Marvin could insulate himself from everything, even perhaps his teammates and his sport, but he chose a bad place to hide when it came to his personal life.

If Marvin Harrison doesn't give much of a speech when his name is read at Canton, it wouldn't surprise anyone - he's not the type to pump up himself, or anyone else for that matter. If he can't make it because he's sitting somewhere in an orange jumpsuit, well, we'll always have the memories.

It's the Offseason Somewhere

2010-01-13T11:42:00.000-08:00

Twenty-four clubs have hit the showers for the foreseeable future, and several have already cleaned house with the hopes of revitalizing their future. We know who's really bad, and it stands to reason the teams still standing must be really good. A look at a few burning questions for the middle of the pack.

1) Is that it for Reid and McNabb? Andy Reid got his contract extension, then put together 14 points in two games to end the season against the Cowboys. Donovan McNabb has no such assurances from owner Jeff Lurie going forward. Is Kevin Kolb ready? Will McNabb be traded to say, Minnesota, Denver or Buffalo? What I think should happen: Reid has always seemed like the problem to me, but, yeah, the core is young and maybe getting the fresh arm in Kolb some playing time wouldn't hurt. If they can turn McNabb into draft value, I say go right ahead. What will happen: Given McNabb's age, injury history, and the uncapped year coming up, I think you're stuck with him, Iggle fans. Remember, Andy Reid is the real problem, so keep sending him those cheese wheels.

2) Is Bill Cowher walking through that door? A bunch of teams want him, but the CBS analyst and 4-time AFC Championship participant has said he wants no part of coaching this year (Read: he doesn't want the Buffalo job). So will John Fox clear out his desk to make room in Carolina? Will Jack Del Rio be fired in Jacksonville? What I think should happen: I've been calling for Del Rio's head since before the season started, but Wayne Weaver is too cheap to listen to me. Cowher would love living in Florida, and his presence might even put some asses in seat at Jax Muni. What will happen: Cowher wants to come back to the big time, which means waiting out Lovie Smith. Wade Phillips seat is not an option because the Chin wants control over all personnel.

3) What effect, if any, will the uncapped year have? The Redskins have already broken the bank for Mike Shanahan - dare they continue to spend with names like Richard Seymour, Brandon Marshall and Shawne Merriman possibly there for the taking? How about Jerry Jones? Will strapped teams like Jacksonville and Cincy be trotting out replacement player types without a price-floor in place? What I think should happen: For the sake of competition, owners who don't want to spend should sell their teams and get out of Dodge. Jerry Jones probably doesn't need to make a splash given the state of the Cowboys. Mike Shanahan might be able to talk sense into Dan Snyder. What will happen: Brandon Marshall will probably get a stupid bananas contract. He will continue to cause trouble. I doubt a lot of other big money deals are out there, given the current labor situation.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Division Round Previews

2010-01-12T09:28:00.000-08:00

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints , 4:15 pm SAT (FOX): Two elite offenses square off in the Superdome. At the time of year when the Cardinals are suddenly unbeatable, the stumbling Saints must rediscover their winning ways, suddenly a distant memory. Both of these defense spent their time being overrated at times this year; I'd be surprised if either showed up in a meaningful way. An evenly matched offensive game is always a good time to focus on special teams, where New Orleans possibly offers the threat of Reggie Bush (Larod Stephens-Howling is no slouch on the other side). Are the Saints yet another one and done finesse team? If their's one edge the Cards have, I think its toughness; from Boldin to Dockett to Adrian Wilson, they have the muscle to intimidate the Fleur-de-Lis. Key player: Jeremy Bridges, LT, Cardinals. If Kurt Warner gets hit early, he could make a ton of mistake that put Arizona out of it. Pick: The more experienced team pulls it out. Arizona, 38-34.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 pm SAT (CBS): Probably the game of the week, as the well-rested Colts get the fearsome Ravens in the airplane hangar. Doesn't every Ravens playoff game feel like it might be Ray Lewis' last? He plays like it anyway. Peyton Manning and Jim Caldwell are the duo under all the pressure this weekend, as the controversial decision to rest starters gets put to the test. In theory, Peyton should have his way withe the Baltimore secondary (although Tom Bray didn't), and Ray Rice should have his way with Indy's notoriously poor run defense. Last time they met, Baltimore essentially lost on a missed field goal (the story of their season). Joe Flacco needs to have a nice game, because the Colts won't give this one away like the Pats did. Key players: Clint Session and Gary Brackett, LBs, Colts. They are the men with the most responsibility for stopping Rice, and probably tight end Todd Heap, who is always a focal point of a good Flacco performance. Pick: In 2005, the Colts blew a 13-0 start against a physical Pittsburgh team with a greenhorn QB. I think Flacco can make enough plays against the rookie corners. Ravens 24-20.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings, 1:00 pm SUN (FOX): A few people might be interested in the outcome of this game, as neither the Cowboys or Vikings made it to the NFC championship in the last decade. Also, Brett Favre's career, Tony Romo's postseason performance and the meaning of life. Bryant McKinnie has been playing awful football, and he goes up against Demarcus Ware in the matchup of the night. One would assume the Vikings will run to counter act the Dallas pass-rush, but the Boys are a fast-flow D, and putting the ball in Adrian's hands one too many times can mean putting it on the carpet. Let's also not forget how awful the Vikings secondary has been - Miles Austin could have a day. As much as things might be in the Cowboys favor, remember this game is in the Metrodome - Dallas left tackle Flozell Adams will be battling Jared Allen and the crowd - could be a lot of penalties. A lot of things to keep an eye on. Key players: Jason Witten and Visanthe Shiancoe. Without E.J. Henderson, All-World Witten will have free reign. When Minnesota goes three wide, they pose a coverage nightmare in which the Shiancoepotamus will get the favorable matchup. Look for the tights to be the difference-makers. Pick: I don't trust Romo any more than you do. Vikings 31-21.

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers, 4:40 pm SUN (CBS): If the Jets could play any team left in the tournament, they would pick San Diego, whose combination of poor rush offense and rush defense is a the dream matchup for the ground-pounding New York attack. Cedric Benson revealed the Jets' weakness - run defense, but there's not a lot 31-year old LT can do about it. When San Diego has the ball, Rivers will try to find his big targets (minus Vincent Jackson, who'll be on Revis Island) and exploit New York's banged up secondary. Mark Sanchez recently found his NFL sealegs, and a return to southern California should be good for his accuracy and confidence; he needs to be just about perfect for Gang Green to have any chance. Look for the Jets to put together long drives but not score a great deal of points. Still, barring a bunch of turnovers, the Bolts should be in position for a game-winning drive in the 4th quarter. Key player: Antonio Gates. The Jets have struggled against elite tight ends, and with knucklehead Kerry Rhodes on him, Gates has to make the critical 3rd down plays to win the game. Pick: Rivers has been ready for a long time - I say he gets it done. Chargers 21-17.

Week 18: Defense Still Important

2010-01-09T18:32:00.000-08:00

+ Revis might be featured in the picture, but the Jets beat the Bengals in a way no one could have expected: with an efficient and explosive passing game. While D-Rex got gashed for 171 yards on the ground from Cedric Benson et al. Can this team do it? What is "it", anyway? It's already been a successful season for the Jets, securing a winning record with a rookie QB and coach. Now that the Sanchize is growing up, this team can be very dangerous. Super Bowl this year dangerous? Not sure of that yet, but no one's blowing out Rex's boys.

This was a good year for the Bengals, and I don't see them as a one and done team. Cedric Benson had a monster game, and that young defense (Peko, Rivers, Maualuga, Hall and Joseph) will be around. With a few more pieces (specifically a complementary wideout to Ochocinco), the Bengals will be back.

Hey, Wade's staying! The Cowboys didn't just end their playoff drought, they made a strong case for best team in the league. Tony Romo made big plays, distributing the ball beautifully to Austin, Witten and even Roy Williams, opening up the running lanes enough for Felix Jones to burst the big one. Jay Ratliff was his dominant self, and the corners were brilliant against the speed receivers.

This was by far the worst playoff defeat of the Andy Reid era in Philly. Isn't this a team known for its defense? They were awful, and add in a couple of Leonard Weaver fumbles, the birds were back 20 at the break. They never had a chance, scoring their only meaningful points on a Mike Vick trick play. My guess is, he won't be back. Neither will a lot of these 2009 Eagles.

+ The Baltimore Ravens lost several close games to elite competition this year. They always found a way to commit the untimely penalty, miss the short field goal, or drop the crucial pass. On Sunday, they failed to come up short in any area, and in doing so, delivered their first drubbing of a good team all year. Their defense roared, their backs rumbled, and Ed Reed reintroduced himself to playoff football. I'm not saying the Blackbirds aren't going to blow another game in a frustrating way, but certainly showed us the dangerous group they can be when they put their minds to it.

As for the Minutemen, well, no one has thought it was their year since Kyle Orton downed them in week 5. But to go out like this? Brandon Merriweather missed half a dozen tackles, Tom Brady looked unprepared, and no one except rookie fill-in Julian Edelman seem inspired or excited about being there. It's one thing for the Bengals to not put up a fight in a opening round playoff game, but Bill Belichick's boys? This is the least fight they've ever shown over a full season since the Rod Rust era.

+ Well, the post-season Cardinals are back, forcing turnovers, building leads and giving them back just to boost the ratings for FOX. Kurt Warner is pretty much the greatest playoff QB of all time not named Montana. 500 yards of offense, including 5 passing TDs to 4 incompletions, and all of this without Anquan Boldin even in the lineup. True, their defense left a hell of a lot to be desired, but thats what next week is for. Oh, next week is Drew Brees? Take the over.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: fire Mike McCarthy. There's a great image to sum up Green Bay's season: Aaron Rodgers making the big throws too late to matter. He did it in Minnesota, he did it in Pittsburgh, and he did it in this game. Rodgers is great once he's desperate - the Packers weren't front-runners, and as a result, I think they ran out of gas. If John Harbaugh and Rex Ryan can make rookies decent, can't McCarthy make a fifth year man like Rodgers get rid of the ball? Maybe, just maybe, this team will be back next year.

This Pete Carroll Situation

2010-01-09T11:49:00.000-08:00

Okay, so I'm a little late commenting on this, but every football insider in the country has reported that Pete Carroll has agreed to terms of a 5 year / 35 millions dollar contract with the Seattle Seahawks, who canned Jim Mora, Jr. yesterday.

The Seabags have had a couple of bad years in a row now, starting with the Mike Holmgren farewell tour in 2008. Ineffective drafts, the steep decline of franchise players Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, and a pair of disastrous free agent signings (Julius Jones and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) have taken the Blue Man Group from perennial playoff contender to ignominious shipwreck faster than you can say "Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch". They need a QB, a new O-line and a defensive identity, but quick. They decided to remedy things by getting an oversized coaching persona.

Now, I actually like Pete Carroll. Before anyone starts the whole "college-to-pros never works" argument, Carroll isn't your average spread-option good ole boy. He runs a pro-style offense, and more importantly, a pro-style defense. He's coached in the NFL (although unsuccessfully), including two aborted head spots in New York and New England. So, compared to Steve Spurrier, he knows what he's doing. I think he can take over a team with a great fan-base and a good draft position this year, and work wonders. It's no wonder he was so unsupportive of Mark Sanchez - without his golden arm, the Trojans had their worst season in a decade of Carroll's leadership.

You just have to wonder why the SeaBirds didn't do this last year - get a decent coach. Jim Mora Jr. got the ride of his life (along with the rest of us) when Michael Vick took the league by storm. It doesn't mean he was ever any damn good. Handing the reins over to him after a horrendous season seemed like a recipe for disaster, and it was. Now Hasselbeck's career is over (along with HOFer Walter Jones) and they have to start from scratch. Good luck. Now, back to the playoffs.

Wild Cards

2010-01-06T07:35:00.000-08:00

Three rematches - and a rematch of the game of the decade, Ravens-Patriots. Two thirds of the league might be put to bed, another 4 teams on vacation, but eight fight for their jobs and playoff lives yet. In chronological order.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 pm SAT (NBC): The Jets demolished the Bengals on Sunday night, 37-0. Okay, maybe that isn't all that informative of how this game will play out. Maybe the fact that Cincinnati is the fraud of this year's playoffs will have something to do with it - two wins over the Steelers isn't as impressive as it once seemed. They'll be down three of their top five defensive lineman going into this game, and Chad Ochocinco, hobbled by a sprained knee, will be neutralized by Darelle Revis. This leaves us with two decrepit offenses. Did I mention Carson Palmer plays poorly against the blitz? All the stats and momentum favor the Jets, who have won five of their last six. Key Player: Rashad Jeanty, ILB, Bengals. He's filling in for top rookie run-stopper Rey Maualuga - if he can slow Thomas Jones early and force Sanchez to throw, well, we know how that usually goes.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys, 8:00 pm SAT (NBC): The Tuck Rule. The Jake Delhomme Meltdown. Bolts-Colts overtime. Steelers Jags II (the David Garrard Run). Strange things have been happening lately on Saturday night in the playoffs. So anyone who thinks the Cowboys will just roll (or roll over) has to be wrong. What would be stranger than the Eagles pounding the rock to keep the game low-scoring and close? I predict a defensive struggle for this one, because a fast-paced game favors Dallas heavily, given that backup center Nick Cole is helpless on obvious passing downs. One has to think Andy Reid didn't break open his book of emergency plays Sunday and will put up more of a fight. Or maybe he's just a bad coach. Key Player: Brian Westbrook. How about some old-school west coast [expletive deleted]? Like some quick swing passes and underneath stuff? Enough of this big play garbage - it's not working.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots, 1:00 pm SUN (CBS): Until Wes Welker went down, the Patriot's strength was the Raven's weakness - wide receivers against the secondary. Now that the slot man doesn't demand a double-team, the Ravens will have a much better chance of winning this game. Ray rice will pose a matchup problem on passing downs and Joe Flacco should have no problem making completions against Jonathan Wilhite and company in the secondary. I expect a high-scoring game (at least in the 20s for both teams). The Ravens will stop the run as they always do, and the Patriots will key in on the run to force the ball into Flacco's hands. They better hope the U of Delaware product doesn't have it with two minutes to go however, because passing on the Pats hasn't been a problem for anybody this year. Key Player: Randy Moss. This actually might be the most pressure he's ever been under in the playoffs. If he doesn't have a monster game, the Pats will lose.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals 4:30 pm SUN (FOX): Probably the hardest game to call of the bunch because of how inconsistent the Cardinals are. There's no way last week gives you any indication, and the crowd will definitely be more involved in the game. However, no team is hotter than the Packers, who have lost one game since Nov. 1st, and that was on a Big Ben miracle with :00 remaining. Injuries are a big concern for the red birds, and they could ultimately swing the game (especially the one to CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie). The Packer D has been great, but Kurt Warner showed us last February what he can do against at aggressive 3-4 D. Key Player: The refs. Curveball! When the refs call a loosey-goosey game, the Packers win resoundingly, because their coverage schemes are based on being physical at the line of scrimmage. When the refs get ticky tacky (and Green Bay is the 2nd or 3rd most penalized team in the league), Dom Capers' crew is in trouble. If Fitzy and Boldin are allowed free release, Cards win.

2010-01-04T14:05:00.001-08:00

Pass is Prologue: 2009 Season in Review

2010-01-04T09:44:00.000-08:00

Time for a megapost with MVPS, underrated players, winners, losers, lessons and the top stories of a year that was. A year ago, it was the Brady injury, the rookie QBs making the playoffs and the suffocating defense of Dick LeBeau. The song never remains the same in the league. With 16 games in the books, the top ten stories of 2009:

1) Year of the Passer: Maybe it's the fact that the Colts and Saints set the scoring bar so high that everyone had to catch up, or maybe its the proliferation of two-headed beasts around the league, but running the football went out of style in a big way this season. For the first time in NFL history, ten QBs tossed the rock for 4,000 yards, and 8 of them guided their teams to the playoffs (Kurt Warner didn't play in two games and threw for 3,800). On a related note, for the first time in recent memory, no rookie rushed for a thousand yards. Only the Bengals and Jets boasted cold-weather offenses going forward. Since the championship games are likely being played inside or in San Diego, that probably won't matter much. Note: Matt Schaub led the league in passing?

2) Secondary? More Like Primary: This goes hand in hand with the top story of the year, but this was not a season where a stout front seven was a necessary ingredient for success. The top 3 Defensive player of the year candidates (Charles Woodson, Darren Sharper, Darrelle Revis), all play defensive back. Elsewhere, injuries to star safeties Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed and Kenny Philips caused three perennial defensive powers to stumble, with Pittsburgh and the G-men missing the tournament. If every team in the playoffs has a great passing game, the one with the best pass defense likely has an edge. The Saints suffered some injuries, so watch the Packers going forward.

3) Speed Kills: The theme of the year is the passer, and passing, and more passing. Which brings me to the trendy spread offense so many college teams use. Chris Johnson was deemed too little by many NFL scouts to be an every down back, but in the modern league, playing with scrambler extraordinaire Vince Young, he broke the 2,000 yard mark, by far the smallest of the six backs to do so (he out-gained the next closest back this year by almost 600 yards). He also broke Marshall Faulk's yards from scrimmage record. Elsewhere in the league, sprightly Desean Jackson scored 8 50-yard plus TDs created purely by separation and speed. Neither of these players is fundamentally sound, but with their physical abilities give them an insurmountable edge.

4) Return of the Kings: Some long suffering fans got to see their franchise QBs take some snaps. Carson Palmer, Alex Smith and Vince Young are all comeback player of the year nominees, as they guided their franchises to non-losing records. Palmer got help from a good team around him, Smith made Mike Singletary look good, and VY looked like a completely different player, as he revived an 0-6 Titan team to nearly making the playoffs. Considering the huge wholes on all three of these rosters, having a good young quarterback going forward is a reason for all those fans to hope. In other news, Jamarcus Russell is a big, rubbery turd.

5) The Kids Aren't Alright: Josh McDaniels had two separate 4 game losing streaks and saw his team lose a 2 game wild card lead to miss the playoffs. And he was the most successful coach under the age of 40 this year. Raheem Morris, Eric Mangini, Steve Spagnuolo, Todd Haley (okay, he's 42) - not so much. Too many teams went young this year, and they all paid for it, with disgruntled veterans, sloppy decision making, and lack of team identity. Who didn't screw up? Rex Ryan, because he's old, white and fat. Sometimes, it's good not to overthink things.

6) Patriots: Lame. Two years ago, they lost the Super Bowl on a miracle. Last year was written off because of a week 1 injury. But now the queston can legitimately be asked: is the dynasty dead? Everyone in America saw two Patriot games this year: 1) Belichick choosing to go for it out of fear and losing because of poor game management and 2) the Saints blowing them off the field on Monday Night Football. Yesterday's injury to Wes Welker may have cooked them for this year, and everyone's only going to get older and more complacent. When this team reconfigured itself around Tom Brady, elite passer, it forgot that 2007 was the only year Brady's thrown 30 TDs. Without a real running game or a real pass defense, they don't come anywhere near a "best team in the league" discussion anymore.

7) A Dog with Different Fleas: Last year, Brett Favre took the Jets to a 9-7 record, but stumbled down the stretch. This year, the Jets were again 9-7, and Favre's act was elsewhere, under the big top in Minneapolis. Again, his team stumbled down the stretch, but an easier schedule allowed them to secure a first round bye. I used to be indifferent to Favre, thinking it funny how much a man-child could be so loved and hated. Then, I was forced to warm to him when he became a Jet. This was the first season I really learned to hate that bastard with every fiber of my being. Do you really want this, Minnesota? You really want to win a Super Bowl this way? Because he'll probably throw 3 picks against the Saints and then go back to his farm to "think". And next year, you'll find a way to be 12-4 without him. I'm thinking that guy with the 2 and 8 on his jersey.

8) All In: If you thought Indy was a finesse team that lacked urgency when it came to the postseason, your hypothesis is about to be put to the ultimate test. In a move that may be discussed for decades, Jim Caldwell pulled his starters and allowed the Colts to lose the final two games of the season in order to "get everyone rest" even though no one on the Colts gets injured except for Bob Sanders, and he was already done for the year. The Colts basically have to win the Super Bowl to not look like the biggest idiots in sports history. As for the competitive balance aspect of this story, there's no reasonable way the commissioner can make teams play. The best incentive for playing to win every game would be provided if the Colts go out early this year. Saints too (Remember when they were 13-0?).

9) Concussions: This is more of a heads-up (pun intended) for the coming years, but the government looks determined to put the kibosh on players being "tough guys". I have to admit, yesterday when Big Ben was playing with his arm hanging off of his body, it was pretty disgusting to hear Dan Dierdorf rooting for him to keep playing hurt. I know I said injuries are part of the game, but a lot of concussions can shorten a person's life after the game. Just make new helmets, but do not change the rules.

10) Fresh and Clean: With the Steelers missing the postseason and Patriots reeling, looks like we might have a shiny new champ by the end of this whole thing. Saints, Chargers, Vikings, they've all sat at the table before, but never got to cut the turkey. Here's to hoping Peyton doesn't wake up.

AWARDS - BEST

MVP: Peyton Manning - that team isn't as good as he makes it look.

Defensive Player of the Year: Charles Woodson. Jack of all trades, plus he's scored three times this year, as much as Sharper.

Rookie of the Year: Michael Oher. Sort of a weak rookie class. A lot of guys trailed off at the end of the year. Give it to Oher on a banged up Ravens line. His protection is a big part of them making the playoffs.

Coach of the Year: Rex Ryan. He's the first coach to take a team to the playoffs with a rookie QB throwing 20 picks. Also, he's the first rookie coach to lead the league in total defense (especially impressive given only one defensive starter made the Pro Bowl).

Breakouts of the Year: Ray Rice had over 2000 yards from scrimmage. Vincent Jackson and Sidney Rice had 1200 yards receiving apiece. Jamaal Charles was a bright spot on an awful KC team.

AWARDS - WORST

LVP - Good god, Jay Cutler. Can you only be good when it doesn't matter?

Worst Coach - Tom Coughlin. I mean, come on. The Giants gave up 40 points 5 times. Coughlin gets worst coach for having the most to work with, and producing the least.

Rookie Bust - Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City. I include the position and team for the simple reason that I almost forgot myself. Seriously, this guy went 3rd overall?

Sophomore Slump: Either Matt Forte or Steve Slaton. Probably Forte, because he kept getting the ball consistently and doing nothing. At least the Texans had the sense to put Stevie on the back burner. What are you pointing at? Your value and potential floating away?

EVERY SCENARIO

2010-01-03T11:47:00.000-08:00

The 50th row of this diagram ended up playing out, with Houston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore and the Jets winning.

Week 17: So What? Who Cares?

2010-01-01T16:15:00.000-08:00

The NFC might be completely locked up, and the AFC 8-7 teams might not be going anywhere, no matter who prevails in the tiebreakers. However, this is the final time we'll see 20 teams this year, so there's plenty of things to look out for. Reasons to not go outside on January 3rd:

Fireman Ed's Suicide Watch: Put this in the "not so fast" category. The Jets are probably facing J.T. O'Sullivan and a bunch of defensive backups for the Bengals Sunday night, but that doesn't mean they can't find a way to screw this up. Jet fans expect heartbreak, and a loss to close the Meadowlands would mark a new low. Gang Green's offense has been anemic, even self-destructive at times this year, so don't put it past Bengals D-coordinator Mike Zimmer to find a way. Also related to this item: don't put it past the Raiders to upset the Ravens if the game is close in the 4th quarter. Charlie Frye!

Seed Splitting - the Possibility of Vikings Packers III: I'm no math major, but I think that Devin Aromashodu's game-icing OT TD made the chances of Favre facing his old friends greater. Maybe even in the wild-card weekend? Let's all root for whatever needs to happen to make this all-too-tasty matchup happen. With the Vikings and Packers playing the way they are right now, Aaron Rodgers might get his revenge and then some. Some analysts are already quivering from drama withdrawl; if this matchup actually happens, expect the upper midwest to tip off its axis. Or something. Ah, Adrian's gonna fumble so much the quarterbacks will be a secondary storyline.

NFC East Championship Game: Last year, the Eagles wiped the Cowboys off the face of the Earth with a 44-6 drubbing in week 17. This year, the final week showdown between the two teams could be for a week off, and at least one home playoff game. This is a much more important game for Dallas to win, so as to not get the talking heads going about how much Tony Romo "sux". If the Eagles win, expect people to be calling them the best team in the NFC, which could spell further heartbreak for the cheesesteak eaters. This is the most compelling game of the week by far, so thank god we're at least going to see it.

The Suh Sweepstakes: Remember when the Rams beat the Lions? That was significant, because it means Detroit wins a tiebreaker for the first pick in the upcoming draft. The Rams must lose, or Jim Schwartz might have his second coming of Albert Haynesworth.

Eric Mangini, Safe?: Jacksonville is probably done, but The Penguin of Cleveland, isn't. King Eric has put three wins together, and if he makes it four at home in the finale, Mike Holmgren may not get rid of him. I still think Mangini's all work no play system could be successful if given the chance, and this game could set him up for another year.

Declining History: The Curtis Painter Game

2009-12-28T13:15:00.000-08:00

The 2009 Jets have a rookie quarterback, a #1 wideout with the case of the drops, and are missing half of last year's Pro Bowlers due to injury. They are a convincingly .500 team. However, if this team somehow makes noise in the playoffs, let's say making it to and winning the Super Bowl in Miami, Rex Ryan owes a ring as much to Jim Caldwell and Curtis Painter as he does anyone in green and white.

Can there have been some sort of strategy at work here? In the post game news conference, Peyton Manning said that the team "followed orders", meaning that inserting Painter in the third quarter or somewhere thereabouts had been the plan all along. The fact that a Jets win hurt Houston and Pittsburgh can't have factored into the Colts decision, could it have? The Texans and Steelers in their current incarnations have elite offense capable of competing with Indy come playoff time. But the decision to put the undefeated season on Painter's shoulders was made long before the 4:15 kickoff.

Earlier this year, stalwart Indianapolis backup Jim Sorgi underwent shoulder surgery ending his season (insert clipboard-related injury joke here). Every December, Sorgi has played a few quarters, sometimes even with the first team offense. He knows the system, and while he might not have the physical tools of Manning, he has the same cerebral style of play befitting Tom Moore's audible-heavy system. When Sorgi went down, the Colts tried out strong-armed JP Losman of the UFL (who incedentally also got sack-fumbled into an improbably Gang Green victory in recent memory), but instead opted for their practice squad leader, Chad Pennington stand-in Curtis Painter.

Let me attempt to reconstruct Caldwell's thinking: 1) We play Manning for the first half, as aggressively as possible; and 2) Hopefully run up the score to a 10 or 14 point lead by half; in the case this doesn't work we 3) Leave Peyton in until we have the lead, whether that lead be 3 points or 20 points. When Reggie Wayne dropped a TD and Brad Smith ran back the second-half kickoff, Caldwell's best laid plans were foiled - he benched Peyton without the game firmly in hand. Was this the indecision of a first-year coach? Was his hand forced by team president Bill Polian? Was Peyton Manning more than a little perturbed when he muttered stock phrases about "following orders"?

What these questions come down to is the value of perfection and the personality of the organizations that pursue it. Two years ago, caught in the web of Spygate and armed with the most explosive deep threat in NFL history, Bill Belichick and the Pats went for 16-0 to show people they could, to assert themselves over the league not only as the best team of 2007, but one of the best of all time.

Those Pats were the opposite of Tony Dungy's Colts, a humble and disciplined finesse team that did enough to win, but never sought to embarass their opponent. Many had said Caldwell was breaking away from Dungy's conservative style and giving the Colts his own stamp. It was this buzz that made people think that Indy might run the table and dominate in the playoffs, something they've struggled to do in recent years. Instead, they quit. They handed that game to the Jets, who couldn't be happier to take it. If I were a fan of the Ravens or Texans or Steelers or Broncos, I'd be incensed. The Colts gave up a record they could have easily had. When Peyton Manning tossed 49 TDs, they had a playoff berth locked up, but he stayed in until he had the record. Jim Caldwell lacked the grit to risk his players for history. He let down the fans, the league, and a lot of other teams and players. One would hope that the Colts can overcome this small bump in the road to claim their second Super Bowl of the Peyton Manning Era, but history suggests they won't.

Week 16: Clinching Time

2009-12-28T01:47:00.000-08:00

A day of blowouts, snoozers and a couple of tight ones solidified the playoff picture on both sides of the league:

+ First, the cream. Dallas and Green Bay secured spots in the playoffs, and shut down the NFC race. We'll just let this picture of Eli Manning do the talking. Looks like Wade Phillips and Ted Thompson have rid themselves of certain back-monkeys. For now at least. Some combination of New Orleans (they lost again!), Minnesota, Philly, the Cards, Pack and Boys make up the NFC side of the draw.

+ In the AFC, two teams had the wild-card edge at 8-6. Baltimore squandered a golden opportunity as a second-half comeback fell short thanks to a dropped TD by Derrick Mason. In a season of gutwrenching plays for the Ravens, this has to be up there. Pittsburgh held on for the win to move to 8-7, but tie breakers make them long-shots. Don't fret, Raven fans - one more win on the road in the Black Hole, and you're in the tournament.

+ The other relevant game for AFC hopefuls was Denver @ Philly, where Donovan McNabb showed his finest form to hold on against another tenacious underdog. His 4th quarter scramble for a first down on a drive that would ultimately take the Eagles to 11-4 might be a touchstone moment for this Philadelphia season (if they can make it count). Denver started 6-0, but now they're on the brink of elimination.

+ So how about the pretenders, those 7-7 teams without a chance in hell of making it? The Titans took the gas pipe Christmas Night, and the Jags soon followed, falling behind 28-0 to the Pats before halftime. The losses at the top of the wild card pool left the door wide for the Dolphins, but they were down 27-0 before any part of their offense woke up. Houston is 8-7, but its a paper 8-7 at that - they don't secure a spot unless everyone loses.

+ Most surprisingly, these early events gave the New York Jets all the motivation they needed to face the impossible in a showdown with the Colts. Jim Caldwell's plan (a separate post on this later) seemed to be let Peyton and the starters play until they were up two scores or it was the middle of the 3rd quarter. When the second half opened with a 106-yard Brad Smith return TD, the plan went out the window. Caldwell stuck to his philosophical guns and pulled his undefeated playmakers nursing a 5-point lead. Rex unleashed the dogs on rookie Curtis Painter, and the Jets won this thing going away. A win next week, and they're in the playoffs. They play the Bengals, who clinched their division this week.

Counting our Chickens: 5 Possible Super Bowls

2009-12-25T09:10:00.000-08:00

There's a great deal of football left, but we have a few clear front-runners for a trip to Miami (Miami isn't one of them). Two years ago, Favre v. Patriots II seemed like a mortal lock. Last year, an all Pennsylvania bowl wasn't far off. This year, there's more than one fantastic matchup out there. 4 dream scenarios and 1 nightmare.

"The Drew Brees Revenge Game" San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints: The balanced Bolts have a boatload of playoff experience. The Saints have the support of FEMA haters everywhere. It would be the first and possibly final trip to the dance for LaDainian Tomlinson, and Darren Sharper. Two teams that have never won would bring back a title for largely bandwagon fanbases. Okay, so history wise, this one would be forgettable Why it won't happen: The Saints have peaked, I can see several teams in the NFC who could beat them on any given night. Who would win: Chargers, 35-17.

"The Second Fiddle Game" Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts: Are the Colt's football's Atlanta Braves? Will Donovan McNabb ever take the Eagles the promised land? In a season of offense, this matchup might give us the most pass happy game, which would favor the Eagles, who have a much more experienced secondary. The winner would take a monkey off their backs - the loser might be past their prime. Why it won't happen: You have to have doubts about both of these defenses, as well as both teams' spotty playoff histories. The odds are against it. Who would win: Colts 28-27.

"The Book-End Game" New England Patriots v. Arizona Cardinals: Okay, so this is a long shot. But who wouldn't want to give Kurt Warner another shot at New England? At the end of the decade, we might just get it. The Pats have no secondary, and the Cardinals suddenly see themselves as elite. If they win, it wouldn't be nearly as silly as last year. Why it won't happen: 2 four seeds meeting in the Super Bowl? Both teams would have to pull two upsets minimum. We know the Cards can, but I don't think either will this year. Who would win: Patriots 27-21.

"The New Day Game" Cincinnati Bengals v. Green Bay Packers: How about some fresh faces up in this piece? The talk leading up to this game might actually be about football, as opposed to plot, legacy and personal animocity. The way these defense have been playing, it might actually be a physical contest between rising powers. I would love this - which means it probably won't happen. Why it won't happen: The Packers are complete - the Bengals are a little new to this whole "winning" thing - I think they stumble in the playoffs. Who would win: Packers 28-13.

What We Don't Want

"The Dream Deferred Game" Minnesota Vikings v. Denver Broncos: A decade ago, Gary Anderson missed a field goal that would have sent the Vikes to a showdown with John Elway and the Broncos. Well, if they have the great good luck of drawing Kyle Orton, they won't miss an opportunity twice. This would be an unconditional Favre love-fest, a nightmare for any fan not in purple and gold. It would give Josh McDaniels an opportunity to put another Cinderella team in the national spotlight. Why it won't happen: Denver peaked in week 4. They might not even make the playoffs. The Vikes will have to go through a more formidable franchise. Who would win: Broncos 37-3. Ha, got you to read to the end.

Non-Quarterback MVPs

2009-12-23T12:51:00.000-08:00

We all know Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers is going to win the AP Most Valuable Player award this year. As the season draws to a close, let's look at the most important players who play (slightly) less glamourous positions. They won't get the praise they deserve anywhere but here:

Jay Ratliff, NT, Cowboys: Under Wade Philips, the Dallas defense has been a much-overlooked unit. They generally bring in top 10 stats. However, this year they were minus Chris Canty and Greg Ellis, versatile front seven players. Demarcus Ware's stats are a shadow of his 2008 all-pro effort. Yet the Cowboys defense was still good enough to hold New Orleans to 17 points. The difference maker has been Ratliff, who has other-worldly speed for a nose tackle, and even shows some acumen in rushing the passer from the center of the line. On a defense full of players too young or too old to make an impact, Ratliff is the essential piece.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: In the Reid/McNabb era, the Eagles have always been efficient on offense, enough so to make the playoffs when healthy. Only when they had Terrell Owens were they good enough to make it to the Super Bowl. Desean Jackson doesn't offer T.O.'s wide range of skills, but he does have the same effect on the opposing defense - he strikes fear in their hearts. With pure speed, Jackson has emerged as one of the most reliable big play receivers in the NFL (Jackson leads the league in yards per catch). He also returns punts, 2 for scores. Until this weekend, he didn't have a TD from inside the opponent's 40 yard line. Consider that this deep threat went 49th in the 2008 draft, while Darius Heyward-Bey went 7th to the Raiders this past year. Sorry, Al, it's just too easy.

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: Poor Dallas. If the Colts hadn't clinched everything already, he might be on his way to the greatest season ever by a tight end. Two more full games would put him over the top in catches and TDs, with yardage not far off. Clark runs end-arounds, screens, blocks and can hit the big play with the best of them. What takes him to MVP status? These aren't just flat routes or simple hitches - Clark gets down field with momentum and picks up serious yards after catch (remember his 80 yard score in Miami week 2?). In an offense filled with big play threats, Clark is the most reliable and consistent.

Adrian Wilson, SS, Cardinals: Ken Wisenhunt has instilled a Sixburgh like mental toughness into his boys from the desert. With every physical defense must come an enforcer, and no one fits the bill on the Cardinals better than Adrian Wilson. He plays the role previously held by Troy Polamalu - the safety who sneaks up and is suddenly a life-threatening linebacker. With five turnovers forced this year, Wilson's presence is felt in every game. Just ask the Giants and Vikings - Wilson has played his best football against the best teams. Memorable games like that go a long way in MVP voting. Oh wait, he plays safety in the NFC West.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: So, obviously this guy should be on here in the five hole. Enough about Charles Woodson. Chris Johnson is having a year that must be celebrated- he has three runs of over 85 yards, which has never been done by anyone in an NFL career, let alone season, as well as three pass receptions of over 60 yards. He leads the league in total yardage by hundreds of yards, and his team probably isn't going to be in the playoffs. This has been a special season for Chris Johnson, and it must be remembered. I doubt he (or perhaps anyone) ever makes it this close to Eric Dickerson ever again.

Looking Super: The Chargers Win Week 15 (Recaps)

2009-12-21T07:59:00.000-08:00

+ The Bengals played valiantly. Chad Ochocinco prayed in the end-zone, Carson Palmer made clutch plays, and Shayne Graham tied the game with less than a minute to go. But Vincent Jackson and Philip Rivers have to good a thing going to let an angel or two stop them. The Chargers are my Super Bowl winner as of this morning. This team has everything you need to win, plus the playoff experience. Hats off to the Bengals, who silenced many critics (including yours truly) with this performance.

+ The Ravens creamed the Bears to put themselves into the "if the playoffs were today" picture. Cool contract extension, Jay Cutler.

+ The Steelers and Packers played the thriller of the day, with Mike Wallace catching a TD in single-coverage with :00 left on the clock. Why was Green Bay aligned in this fashion? Hard to say, but the mental mistake kept Sixburgh alive for the last playoff spot in the AFC.

+ Speaking of the AFC wild card, it became crazy complicated when the Jets gave up a last minute TD to the Falcons, the Texans held off the Rams and the Titans upended the Dolphins in overtime. Now there are 6 7-7 teams including Jacksonville, with two week to play. If the Ravens handle the Steelers next week, however, most of those teams will be eliminated.

+ Over in the NFC, the Cardinal took care of business, even if not convincingly. The Lions came roaring back to tie the game at 24, but Kurt and Company didn't flinch. Now Arizona has clinched back to back playoff appearance for the first time since, um, a long time ago.

+ The Eagles assured themselves of at least a Wild Card with a win over the suring 49ers. Not sure about that whole Alex Smith thing (he cost me in one fantasy league).

R.I.P. "Slim"

2009-12-17T07:31:00.000-08:00

The Cincinnati Bengals lost friend and teammate Chris "Slim" Henry this morning, who succumbed to injuries sustained in an apparent domestic dispute. The circumstances surrounding his death are unclear, but the police are already investigating the incident as a homicide. Henry is survived by three children.

Henry was 26 years old. People may remember him as a bad guy (in 2007 he was suspended for 8 games for violation of the conduct policy), but to me Henry will always be the tremendously gifted deep threat stuck at third on the depth chart because of the talent at the position in Cincinnati. To me, he had all the potential of a young Randy Moss, the speed and size and ability required of a playmaker. In 12 games as a starter, Chris Henry caught 21 touchdowns. And now he's gone.

Looking Ahead: Who Can Surprise?

2009-12-15T09:08:00.000-08:00

The Saints and Colts can finish 13-3 at worst. The Chargers and Vikings are close behind, and are as flawless as teams with a loss can be. However, the last few years have seen wild card teams (or lesser division winners) make noise every year, with at least one heavily favored squad taking the gas-pipe in January. Five long-shots that might be rounding into championship form:

Baltimore: If the playoffs were today, they wouldn't even be in it. Yet, down the stretch, their hardest game is at the flailing Steelers, so you have to give them the best chances of the AFC 7-6 teams to win out. If they get in, they could find themselves up against the Bengals, Colt, or Patriots - teams they lost to in the final seconds. Remember when the Ravens had the number 1 offense in the league? If they play as well as we know they can, they could find themselves back in the championship game. Key Player: Joe Flacco has backslid in his sophomore season. He needs to wake up. What stands in their way: They aren't in the tournament yet, and Pittsburgh always plays them tough. Also, the Bears could wake up?

Green Bay: If you throw out the records, Green Bay might be the best team in the NFC right now. They've won 5 in a row since their closed-doors meeting, Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind, and Dom Capers has found a formula on defense. This team bears a lot of similarities to the 2007 Giants - QB coming into his own, defense learning a new scheme and gelling late in the year, running game that does just enough. Key Player: It's all about pass protection - if Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher do their jobs at tackle, the Pack will be in every game to the end. What stands in their way: You can't love their chances if they have to go to the Metrodome again. Jared Allen will taste man flesh. If they can avoid the Vikings in the seeding, and all the overblown storylines that go with it, this could be their year.

New England: Lying in the weeds are the 3-time Super Bowl champs. With an easy schedule and a one game lead in the AFC East, they're a virtual lock for the playoffs. Yet, no one seems to be giving them any credit. Do they have a defense? Perhaps not, but they stop the run better than you might think. Now, this isn't the '07 incarnation by any stretch of the imagination (Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney were more important than we thought), but they're at least as good as the '01 Cinderella team. Key Player: Brandon Merriweather is a future elite safety in this league. If he can cover up some of the corners' mistakes, they can patch it together in the secondary. What stands in their way: I never thought I would say this about a Belichick-coached team, but the Pats attitude is their own worst enemy. They need leaders to step up (besides Brady) if they want to take this season all the way.

Arizona: Okay, so they shit the bed last night in San Francisco. Which means every sportswriter in the country is writing them off - kind of like last year. The 2009 Cardinals would blow the 2008 version off the field. They've improved in two essential areas - total defense and rushing yards. Beanie Wells looks better with every carry and this team has too big a lead to not get a first-round home game. Key player: Kurt Warner has had a couple of senior moments this season (8 turnovers in 2 games) - if he can avoid these, the Cardinals are elite. What stands in their way: I can already see a half-dozen procedure penalties on that patch-work O-line if the redbirds have to go to either dome. Talent-wise, they can contend.

New York (AFC): Okay, I'm a Jets fan. I only include this item because of the overwhelming statistical case that the New York Jets will make the playoffs. They lead the NFL in rushing, total yardage allowed and points allowed. The only team that has led any of those categories this decade and not made the playoffs was the 2005 Atlanta Falcons, whose rushing numbers were grossly inflated by Michael Vick. In fact, the past five years, the team that has led in total defense or rushing has had a first round bye. Key Player: When the Jets win or tie the turnover battle, they are unbeatable. Whoever is taking the snaps from here on out better be careful. What stands in their way: How about letting Ted Ginn run back two in five minutes? Or that dropped 2-point conversion against Jacksonville? Or the second trio of interceptions at home vs. Buffalo? Sorry, sorry. They don't control their own destiny. If the other desperate teams rise to the occasion, the Jets are finished.

16-0 in Sight, Vikings Back on Track, AFC Wild-Card Tighter than Ever: Week 14 Early Games

2009-12-13T14:59:00.000-08:00

+ Dallas Clark found the end-zone three times as the Colts looked ready for the Super Bowl with an relatively easy win over the 8-5 Broncos. Denver needs to be careful with a pesky Oakland team coming in next week. Brandon Marshall broke his own NFL record for receptions in a game, hauling in 21 of Kyle Orton's 29 completed passes, but it wasn't nearly enough. The Colts are stopping the run better than they have in Manning's time in Indianapolis, and that should horrify whoever they draw in January.

+ The Saints looked sluggish, their defense porous, but they still escaped Atlanta 26-23. There's not much question that the Colts are the better team at this point, but New Orleans is two wins from clinching homefield throughout the playoffs. With matchups against the Bucs and Panthers left, there's little doubt they'll get it.

+ The Vikings made their thumping in Arizona a distant memory as they put some serious doubts in the minds of Cincinnati fans. The Bengals played their game, ran Cedric Benson and didn't have half the firepower they needed to keep up with Brett Favre. Old Reliable threw another pick, but against good Cincy corners, that's forgiveable. Adrian Peterson found his sealegs, and that was all.

+ Green Bay eliminated Chicago on the back of Ryan Grant, who chipped in 137 yards and 2 TDs. The Packers will be dangerous, and probably locked up a playoff spot today.

+ In the AFC, Jacksonville controlled its own destiny, but Miami snatched it from them on the backs on their defense. Joey Porter and co. overcame bad field position time and again to hold the Jags to 10 points, and David Garrard had his worst home game of the year. Both teams are 7-6, but with the Colts and Pats coming up, say goodbye to the North Florida All-Stars.

+ The Jets and Ravens entered the day at 6-6, needing to win out. They both shellacked inferior competition, with Thomas Jones grinding down the Bucs and Ray Rice exploding all over the Lions. With their wins, they sit at 7-6 with the Fins and Jags. You gotta like the Ravens chances, with their hardest games at sub .500 Pittsburgh, a team that may be quitting down the stretch.

What the #@$%! Happened? The Fantastic Decline of the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers

2009-12-11T05:42:00.001-08:00

Last night, the Steelers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Cleveland Browns. They scored 6 points. This comes a week after losing three fourth quarter leads to the Oakland Raiders, and four weeks after dropping a game to the miserable Kansas City Chiefs in overtime. This marks the first time in NFL history the defending champs have lost five games in a row.

For a good part of this season, it has been easy to put the Steelers' struggles at the foot of Troy Polamalu's knee injury. This was the best defense in the league last year; do they really not have one other playmaker? The Packers (who visit Heinz field next week) are playing without Al Harris and Aaron Kampmann, yet they're cruising along. It's true, in last year's championship run, more than a couple of games were won at the end with Troy making the uncommon play to seal it. If he's there for all the games he missed, perhaps the Steelers are 9-4. Perhaps. But maybe the Pitt D is just mentally shellshocked from his absence - the 61 yard run after catch by Chris Chambers that killed them in Arrowhead showed a stomach-turning lack of toughness.

But call a spade a spade; the offense hasn't been elite at any point since Bill Cowher left. They scratch and scrape enough to win games, but they don't put people out early and run out the clock, like the elite teams of the Jerome Bettis era did. Against KC and Oakland, Big Ben tossed key red-zone interceptions to keep hope alive for the underdog. Roethlisberger loooks more and more like a poor man's Favre, from those fin-de-siecle Packer teams under Mike Sherman - running around, chucking it, getting hit and looking bewildered when the clock runs to 0:00.

I said it earlier this week, but I'll say it again; I'm not convinced Mike Tomlin is the coach for this team. He doesn't seem very smart. In the post-game, he talked about three changes he had made to shake things up: 1) Using Santonio Holmes as a punt returner, 2) Having Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield on third down and 3) Giving CB Joe Burnett more playing time. Santonio Holmes is the No. 1 receiver, Mewelde Moore is a very capable pass-catcher and Burnett dropped an interception last week from the hand of Bruce Gradkowski. Translation: Tomlin is pushing the wrong buttons, and has yet to diagnose the problem with his team. Maybe he won't.

Week 14 Look Ahead: AFC Playoff Hopes

2009-12-09T11:11:00.000-08:00

With the NFC largely in order (bye, bye Wade), there's still a lot to be decided down the stretch for the AFC wild card. A look at the games ahead for the front-runners and hangers-on.

1) Denver Broncos
This was a season of dizzying up and vertiginous down for the Mountain Steeds, but barring a meltdown, they're on their way to 10-6. They'll likely lose going East to Indy and Philly, but if they can beat the Raiders and Chiefs at home, they'll finish with a solid 8-4 conference record. Chances they'll make it: 85%. The only problem is if the Raiders resurgence continues - McDaniels seems to be smart enough to put an end to that.

2) Jacksonville Jaguars
In retrospect, this team won some crucial games in November. With one less win, they'd already be done for. At 7-5, they face a very tough road, which starts when they face Miami this week. Then Indy comes to town with the ability to clinch the number 1 overall seed (remember last December, on Thursday night, when Peyton completed 22 consecutive passes against the Jags to come from behind?). Follow that one up with 10 days to face a pissed-off Patriot team in Foxborough. The MUST beat the Dolphins this week, or their season is over. Chances: (In order to not enrage the stat-heads, I'll splite the 100% up evenly between the five teams) 25%. When a team needs to beat Indianapolis, they generally don't. 9-7 is the best they can hope for, with 8-4 in the conference.

3) Baltimore Ravens
If they play like they did on Monday night, they have no shot. They looked anemic on the offensive side of the ball, which means the game against Chicago could be a closer than people think. But say they beat the Lions and Bears, and beat a surging Oakland team in the final week. To assure themselves a berth, they need to go to Pittsburgh and pull out a W, something they havent done in several years. As always, the Ravens' season comes down to the black and gold. Chances: 20% Could be a lot of 9-7 clubs this year. They'll match the Jags at 8-4 in the conference assuming just the one loss to Big Ben and company. On the other hand, I don't trust this team at all.

4) Miami Dolphins
I'll be the first to say it: the Dolphins are a good team, Sparano is a great coach, and this could be the team of the next decade. But what about this year? They face tough tests in Jacksonville and Tennessee the next two weeks, then get the Texans and Steelers at home. None of those are gimmes, but none of them are impossible either. I like them this week, but Tennessee and Pittsburgh will be tough. Chances: 35%. Miami is playing very sound football, probably the best of the teams on the bubble, and I think they can do this. However, they face the hardest schedule of any team in the hunt.

5) New York Jets
The schedule sets up the prettiest for the New York Jets, and they're going to need it, because 9-7 will not get them into the playoffs (they lose every conceivable tie-breaker). They have Tampa and a wounded Atlanta team coming up, then two AFC heavies. Thing is, Indianapolis might have things all sewn up, and come week 17, Cincy might be resting some players. The Jets season really lies with Jim Caldwell; if he decides to go for 16-0, New York is done for. As for Marvin Lewis? His team has gotten lucky a few times - if the Jets don't turn it over, they might be able to beat Cincy 1st string or not. Chances: 15%, because winning out would add up to a 6 game streak for Gang Green, and that in itself doesn't seem likely.

6) Pittsburgh Steelers
Anybody understand what's wrong with this team? Without Troy on the field, the defense looks likes the Bears, and not the good Bears. Roethlisberger is throwing dagger picks left and right, and they can't run the ball. They have to play Green Bay, Baltimore and Miami down the stretch after a road trip to Cleveland (the fact that Thursday night cannot be considered an automatic win spells doom enough for this team.) I'm starting to think Mike Tomlin is all attitude and no football intelligence. Chances: 5%. The Steelers stink right now. And they don't have a soft schedule. If Troy doesn't come back, move those odds down to 0.

Lesssons Learned: Week 13

2009-12-07T07:32:00.000-08:00

Last night, Brett Favre look old and Kurt Warner looked fresh. The Cardinals beat back the Vikings and dominated every phase of the game.

Sizzling Contenders: Arizona, Philadelphia, Cincinnati

Fizzling Contenders: New England, Dallas, Minnesota

New Swagger: Jacksonville, NY Giants

Done: Houston, San Francisco, Atlanta

Players of the Week: Robert Meachem made the uncommon play against the Redskins - forcing a fumble return TD. He also caught one to tie it late and keep the Saints undefeated season alive. Louis Murphy made more than one crazy bananas catch on his way to 4 for 128 and 2 TDs to put away the Steelers late (Bruce Gradkowski deserves some dap as well). And how about Brandon Jacobs? He made THE play of the game, a 76-yard screen scamper, as well as scoring one on the ground.

Scariest Offense: San Diego plays a game in the eastern time zone with minimal contributions from Vincent Jackson and Ladainian Tomlinson, yet win going away. The Chargers barely have to try. Antonio Gates put the team on his back in a way he hasn't all season - if he keeps playing like that, be afraid. Be very afraid.

Scariest Defense: I've written this before, but grea googly moogly, has Arizona improved. They have four legit pro-Bowlers in Karlos Dansby, DRC, Adrian Wilson and Darnell Dockett. Throw in the 6'8 Calais Campbell and wild-cat runner Antrel Rolle, and defensive co-ordinator Bill Davis has a lot of toys to play with. Ken Wisenhunt has crafted an unbelievable team out west, and the defense is finally coming along.

Biggest Concern for a Winning Team: It's all fun and games now, and with Minnesota losing, the Saints pulled closer to a number 1 overall seed. However, if Jason Campbell can move the ball, and Albert Haynesworth can stuff the New Orleans running game, then a good team (like the Vikings) can certainly beat the Saints. These are not the 2007 Patriots. They will lose before the Super Bowl.

Brightest Spot on a Losing Team: The Cowboys lost in uncharacteristic fashion - Romo played great, while the running game was weak. Roy Williams and Jason Witten were lights out, while the defense struggled. The Cowboys have the tools (they have for 4 years), and this time they might have the maturity at QB.